Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Jersey City / Newark Urban Area Security Initiative Regional Evacuation Planning Study

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Purpose of Study Develop a collaborative, cross-jurisdictional and multi-agency, all-hazards regional evacuation plan for the northern New Jersey UASI region.

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Research Team Voorhees Transportation Center –Transportation planning and policy –Outreach and public involvement –GIS and travel demand modeling National Transit Institute –Emergency management and transportation security Bloustein Center for Survey Research Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering –Travel demand and evacuation modeling Subject matter experts: –Mariana Leckner (Emergency Management consultant) –Richard Kelly (Original author of the Trans-Hudson Emergency transportation plan) –Marketing (TBD) –Traffic operations (TBD)

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Goal and Objectives Goal: Enhance the region’s evacuation planning capabilities –No “silver bullet” or absolute answers Objectives: –Inventory assets and resources –Develop foundational understanding of how the region’s transportation network may function under different scenarios and assumptions –Identify critical vulnerabilities and impediments to successful evacuation, shelter-in-place and reentry/recovery efforts –Explore opportunities for coordination and collaboration –Identify needs related to collaborative arrangements/mutual aid –Identify training and education needs –Strengthen existing framework for on-going regional cooperation and collaboration

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Planning process will address Command, control and management issues Evacuation routing and clearance time estimates Evacuation of special needs populations Coordination with mass care/sheltering and animal evacuation/sheltering plans Cooperative and mutual-aid arrangements Ingress/re-entry plans for the safe return of displaced populations

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Scope of Work 1.Conduct literature review 2.Review modeling “state-of-the-practice” 3.Identify planning scenarios & assumptions (up to 10 scenarios) 4.Review county and local plans and annexes 5.Inventory evacuation-related assets and resources 6.Develop regional evacuation planning transportation model

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Scope of Work (p.2) 7.Design and implement agency coordination and public participation plan –Interviews and listening sessions –UASI evacuation steering committee –Agency/stakeholder working group –Topical committees/working groups (as needed) –Region-wide resident survey Disaster preparedness Evacuation behavior –Information dissemination strategy –Public information/education plan & conduct public forums

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Scope of Work (p.3) 8.Prepare plan and functional annexes –Command, control and management –Public notification and communication –Evacuation routing plans and corridor/mode-specific sub- plans –Plans/protocols for evacuating transportation- disadvantaged and special needs populations –Trans-Hudson evacuation –Cooperative arrangements and mutual aid agreements –Coordination with other target capability planning initiatives –Recovery/re-entry plans and protocols –Training and exercise plan –Procedures for updating the plan and model

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Schedule

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Challenges Scale and scope of the region Adapting traditional planning methods to a disaster planning process –“Worst-case” planning unfamiliar –Many hypothetical assumptions and unknowns –Emergency managers not accustomed to open, transparent planning process Modeling the behavior of a population not accustomed to evacuation Using conventional transportation planning tools to address an unconventional problem Bridging the gap between cooperation and coordination –Cooperation is informal and built on personal relationships –Coordination is more formalized and built on institutional arrangements

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Scale and scope of the region

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Adapting traditional planning methods to disaster planning context “Worst-case” is planning unfamiliar to most Involves many hypothetical assumptions and unknowns Emergency managers not accustomed to open, transparent planning process Source:

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Modeling evacuation behavior is complex Prepared by: Jill Grodkiewicz and Jon Carnegie

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Using conventional transportation planning tools to address an unconventional problem Regional model provides snapshot of how regional transportation systems may work –Macro-scale –Course grained network –Static O&D Micro-scale simulation models provide greater local definition and dynamic travel assignments No-notice events are a particular challenge Shadow evacuation is also challenging to model North Jersey Regional Transportation Model (NJRTM)

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Bridging the gap b/w cooperation and coordination Informal and built on personal relationships Formalized and built on institutional arrangements CooperationCoordination

Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Discussion Thank you! Contact information: Jon A. Carnegie, AICP/PP, Executive Director Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey Tel: ext