APPLICATION OF SNA08 IN JAPANESE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: A CASE OF CATASTROPHE Working Party on National Accounts, OECD, Paris 25-28 October, 2011 Kosuke SUZUKI.

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Presentation transcript:

APPLICATION OF SNA08 IN JAPANESE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: A CASE OF CATASTROPHE Working Party on National Accounts, OECD, Paris October, 2011 Kosuke SUZUKI Department of National Accounts Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office of Japan

ROADMAP TO JSNA IMPROVEMENT Forthcoming benchmark and comprehensive revision due out in this winter Public/private delineation, FISIM, tangible assets, own- account software, etc. Ongoing new projects Quarterly GDP (production and income sides) Supply-Use framework, etc. Implementation of SNA08 Full incorporation in the future benchmark revision of the next revision Partial implementation in advance if applicable 2

RESEARCH IN NONLIFE INSURANCE ESTIMATION WITH SNA08 CONCEPT Backdrop The unprecedented economic damage in the aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake Anomalies in nonlife insurance service estimation are expected (possible negative output). Research and application Advance implementation of SNA08 in annual estimates will be possible (this year or next year). Fluctuations in data will be thoroughly examined. 3

METHODOLOGY Current method  Nominal output = Net insurance premiums – Net claims – Outstanding claims + Other income  No capital transfer is recorded. Improved method with SNA08 concept Earthquake casualty claims regarding the 3/11 earthquake are excluded from the right hand side of the above equation. The earthquake casualty claims are recorded as capital transfer. Source: The General Insurance Association of Japan, etc. 4

FIGURE: ESTIMATION RESULTS Output of insurance service (Source) Yoshino and Kori (2011) 5

IMPLICATION/ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION Usefulness of SNA08 concept Practical Issues Possible alternative methods Thresholds of catastrophic disaster Over-time consistency in accounts Linkage with international trade data 6

REFERENCE Yoshino and Kori (2011) “Improvement in the Estimation Method of Nonlife Insurance Service (Earthquake Casualty Insurance Service) with Considering the Effects of the Great East Japan Earthquake,” National Accounts Quarterly, No. 146, pp73-99, Department of National Accounts, ESRI. (available only in Japanese) 7