Workshop B: Aging, shrinking regions and access to services Prof. Simin Davoudi Director of Social Systems Institute for Research on Environment and Sustainability (IRES) Newcastle University ESPON Seminar Evora, Nov. 2007

Declining share of European population EU 25: 460 m. in 2005 –+3.9% since 1990 National differences: –Cyprus grew by 31% –Estonia declined by 14% –Slovenia and Poland remained constant (0.1%+ and 0.4%+) EU share of world population: –16% in 1950; 7% in 2005 –By 2030 Europeans will account for 1 in 16 of the world’s population, down from 1 in 6 in 1950.

The Ageing Europe Fall in fertility rate –2.7 in 1960, 1.4 in 2001 –To below reproduction rate (2.1) in all MS –Lowest in e.g. Northern Spain, Eastern Germany –Highest in e.g. Northern Finland and Ireland Fall in mortality rate Increase in longevity –Share of 60+ from 21% in 2000 to 30% by 2030 –Share of -20 from 23% to 15% –Life expectancy rises from average 76.5 to 84.5 years

‘A Silver Century’ Median age in 2000Median age in 2030

Sever ageing: years by 2030 Examples of regions with highest median age: –North West Spain –Northern Italy –Sardinia –Corsica –Eastern Germany –Scotland –Central Poland –Central Portugal

Migration Dominant intra-EU flows: –Periphery to core –East to West Immigration from outside the EU Out-migration of highly qualified workers Migration is age-specific yellow-red: young; Blue-green: old

Combined effect: Regional variations 1990s Population gain –60% of NUTS regions –30% due to natural and migratory rises –20% due to selective (young) migration, despite low fertility –10% due to negative migration but positive natural balance

Combined effect: Regional variations 1990s Population loss –40% of NUTS3 regions –88 of 133 most declining are in Germany –Some are old industrial areas –Many are relatively rural, sparsely populated and geographically remote

Shrinking regions Depopulation of small towns and rural areas Due to a ‘triple demographic time bomb’: –Too few children –Too many old people –Too many young adults leaving Counter-urbanisation –E.g. in the UK some 1700 people move out of the cities every week to live in countryside

Key Socio-economic challenges Shrinking workforce –shortage of skilled labour –declining competitiveness of European economy Late entry to and early exist from the labour market –Squeeze of workforce particularly among higher socio-economic groups Rising dependency ratio (2 to 1 by 2030) –longer working hours, higher taxes

Key socio-economic challenges cont. Growing number of older people –raising the cost of health care and pension The ‘Ageing Europe’ –putting pressure on the European social model and welfare provision ‘Grey’ voting power –shifting public spending away from nurseries and schools to health care and retirement homes, –blocking reform to retirement age and pension schemes

Key socio-economic challenges cont. Social differentiation among older people –poverty and isolation among some who mainly live in urban areas using distance care packages versus –luxury life among others living in large houses with ‘carer quarters’, in retirement destinations Immigration –response to demographic restructuring –increase in the cost of integration (employment, housing, crime, health care and education) –social and cultural tensions

Differentiated patterns of demographic change: –An age element to: east / west, centre / periphery, south / north, urban / rural divisions –Countries with highest level of ageing population versus –countries with youngest population Concentration of immigration from outside Europe in large and mainly capital cities Key territorial challenges

Different territorial destinations for intra- European migration: –affluent retirees moving from north to south and Mediterranean regions, –east European workers searching for job in western European countries

Key territorial challenges cont. Meso level territorial differentiation: metropolitanisation, depopulation and counter- urbanisation –Growing population in metropolitan areas both in western and eastern Europe versus –Depopulation of rural areas in eastern and western peripheries, central part of Germany, central and north Italy –Shrinking regions with declining basic services

Key territorial challenges cont. Micro level spatial segregation –Affluent older people moving to rural areas with lower crime rates, good access to health services and pleasant climate versus –lower income older people remaining in urban areas