Risk assessment of nature extreme events in the coastal zone Dangerous hydrological phenomena in the river mouths and their relation to synoptic situation N.I.Alekseevsky, D.V.Magritsky, N.M.Yumina, I.N.Krylenko, D.N.Aibulatov, G.S.Ermakova, E.Antohina D.Gutchina

Environmental - economic zones of coast (EEZC) of the European part of Russia

Structure and impact degree of dangerous processes and phenomena depending on features of EEZC districts

Time scales of dangerous hydrological phenomena (DHP) and hydrology-morphological processes in the river mouths

Linear scales of dangerous hydrological phenomena (DHP) and hydrology-morphological processes in the river mouths

Genetic classification of the dangerous hydrological phenomena

List of hydrological data needed to assess the social and economic damages and risks Type and coordinates of DHP-occurrence Intensity of the dangerous hydrological phenomena (for Damage) Duration of dangerous hydrological events and the residual phenomena (for Damage) Exposure area SIFVI=(SSI-3)*(Exposure_area*10)*(IDI*10) SIFVI: social and infrastructure Flood Vulrability Index SSI: Social Susceptibility Index IDI: Infrastructure Density Index Probability (frequency) of dangerous hydrological events of certain intensity RISK=f(Probability, Damage) Other parameters

Data source for assess and prediction the social and economic damages and risks 1.The Catalogue of the dangerous hydrological phenomena 2.Data of hydrological monitoring on stations and from the satellites 3.Field studies 4.Statistic, geographic analysis 5.Computer simulation

The catalogue of the dangerous hydrological phenomena sections 1. Water object code 2. Water object name 3. Chronology of DHP 4. Type of DHP 5. Factors (origin) of DHP 6. A brief description of the dangerous hydrological phenomena and events 7. Parameters of DHP (3 parts) 8. Hydro-meteorological conditions (H, Q, v, t, x) 9. The economic and social damage 10. Data source

The catalogue of the dangerous hydrological phenomena data sources and structure ~760 events: Inundations – 644 Low water – 83 Seawater intrusions – 13 Others - 20

Comparison of the river mouths on a set and degree of hazard of DHP

The dangerous hydrological phenomena in the Kuban river mouth Water-flow and ice-jam inundations Storm surges Dangerous ice phenomena Heavy sea Low water Structure of inundations for period 100 yrs.Chronology of inundations for period 140 yrs.

Rain and snow-melt floods (autumn-winter) Summer high water Spring high water Flow-water inundations in the Kuban river delta Repeatability of years H max >H critical The mean number of days per year H max >H critical The mean depth of flooding of a flood plain Flood-control systemResultsPrecondition I. flood-control reservoirs II. flood-control dams Q

Ice jams and ice-jam inundations in the Kuban river delta Ice-jam inundation of winter yr. River reaches of ice-jam formation Frequency of ice jams ( yrs.)

Long-term variability of the ice phenomena in the Kuban river delta The period with ice phenomena Ice thickness Cases of Ice jams formation for different periods

Storm surges in the Kuban river mouth Flood zone and propagation length of backwater in the branches Probability curve

The dangerous hydrological phenomena in the Don river mouth and their long-term variability

The dangerous hydrological phenomena in the Neva river mouth and their long-term variability Storm surges (delta) Underflooding (delta) Ice-snow jam (deltaside river section) H=200 cm BS H=500 cm BS Flood zones

Expedition to the river mouths of Black sea august 2011

Simulation result of flooding of the Terek river delta (model and calculations of V.V.Belikov) Hydraulic models of water stream movement 1.«Flood» and «River» (V.V.Belikov) 2. Mike 11, Mike 21 (Denmark) 3. Delft 3D (Netherlands) 4. «HEC-RAS» (USA) 5. «TELEMAC» (France)

Hydrological models of runoff formation basin model ECOMAG (author - Motovilov Y.G.) input data, structure, results

Results of computer simulation

Input: 12 Atmosphere- Ocean General Circulation Models data Result: Runoff changes estimation Calculation: Climate-driven hydrological model Y = f (T 0, P) The forecast of runoff changes AOGCMs : CMIP3:CCSM3, CGCM3.1, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.0, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL-CM2.1, MIROC3.2, MRI-CGCM2.3.2А, PCM, IPSL CM4, MIUB ECHO G resolution: 2°×2° basic period: yrs. forecasting period: yrs. 1)1) equation proposed by Mezentsev n – empirical coefficient T 0 – sum of positive temperature ( ºC) Y 2050, Y 2050max, Y 2050min Maps of Ky=Y 2050 /Y bas.period Maps of K Cv =Cv 2050 /Cv bas.per iod Probability curves 2)2)

Minimum value KyMean value KyMaximum value Ky Mean value KCv P,% The forecast of annual runoff change of the Severnaya Dvina river

The synoptic situations associated to various origin floods

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