WP 6, Milan, 10 February,2011 Laura Currie, Fiona Godfrey

WP6: Policy analysis and recommendations Objective: To integrate and distil the findings of other work packages into policy recommendations with consideration of existing EU policy and the feasibility of their adoption

Overview Milestones 1.Report on present EU/MS tax policy 2.Draft report of EU policy recommendations Deliverables 1.Final Policy Report

Tools for completion of the WP Timely data from WPs 2, 3, 4, and 5 Expert policy panel: WP leaders, tax experts, MS and Commission reps Stakeholder consultation meeting: expert review panel plus other tax experts and more MS and NGO representatives

Update Appointment of WP6 researcher effective April 1 –Laura Currie, TBC Report on present MS/EU fiscal policy –Scheduled for completion mid-May –Preparatory work on the report is underway Creation of the expert panel and stakeholder consultation meeting has been started

M1: Report on present EU tax policy Content: How have EU and MS tobacco fiscal policies evolved and what policies, as set out in the EU Directives, are currently in place? How do tobacco fiscal policies in neighbourhood countries, particularly Ukraine and Russia, impact on the effectiveness/development of EU tobacco fiscal policies? What approach has been taken by selected EU MS in their use of fiscal policy for tobacco control? Examples of international best practice in the use of tobacco fiscal policy to acheive tobacco control aims

Policy Recommendations Report We will: Identify feasible policy alternatives Assess the impact of these policy alternatives Consider the cost implications of the recommendations Hold a stakeholder consultation forum Draft a final set of policy recommendations

Identifying policy alternatives Consultation with PPACTE team regarding the scope, content and structure of policy recommendations emerging from PPACTE (ie. tax structures, tax levels, approach to taxing different tobacco product types, recommendations on addressing tobacco industry pricing strategies etc etc) Policy alternatives will be identified through: –consultation with PPACTE team –Input from expert policy panel –Reflection on international best practice, and –Synthesis of evidence from PPACTE WPs

Assess the impact of policy alternatives Expected impact on demand for tobacco based on elasticity estimates WP2/WP3 –How this might differ by gender, age and socioeconomic status based on literature review in IARC Handbook WP7 Predicted impact on prevalence, consumption and mortality based on SimSmoke model predictions WP4 Anticipated response of tobacco industry and how this might be mitigated WP5 Differential impact based on MS context WP6

Cost and market implications of policy alternatives Aim To discuss the cost implications of implementing policy alternatives To identify any implications for the EU single market of implementing policy alternatives Methods Analysis of the cost effectiveness of the policy alternatives is outside of the scope of this project. However, we will use as a basis the costings work on implementation of the FCTC being undertaken by WHO for the UN General Assembly Special Session on NCDs in September What else is out there on this topic?

Role of expert review panel Advising on the design and methodology of the policy recommendations report Reviewing evidence produced by the work packages and other data for inclusion in the report Agreeing packages of policy alternatives Evaluating the policy alternatives for relevance, feasibility and implementation at EU and MS level Taking part in the stakeholder consultation meeting

Stakeholder Consultation on Policy Recommendations Aim To promote wide stakeholder involvement in the the elaboration of policy recommendations and implementation of PPACTE findings by drawing on the knowledge, perspectives and experience of representatives from various agencies and EU MS. To provide a rigorous review of policy recommendations to ensure they are feasible, robust, cognisant of the differing policy contexts in the EU MS and sensitive to the socio-economic differences of EU MS.

Timeline of key events 02/1208/1102/11 Stakeholder Consultation Meeting Launch of Final Policy Report Circulate draft policy report Final Policy Report Summary of findings sent monthly to WP6 Appointment of researcher Report on present tax policy Expert policy panel meeting

Timeline: February-March Assemble references for current status report Agree Chair of Stakeholder Consultation meeting Create expert policy group

Timeline May Completion of current status report Meeting of expert panel to start identifying policy alternatives Agree outline of final policy recommendations report Agree packages of ‘policy alternatives’ for evaluation/ impact assessment.

June - September Impact Assessment/evaluation of policy alternatives to assess impact on health outcomes, health inequalities, gov’t revenues using SimSmoke and other models produced through PPACTE

October - November Draft report of policy recommendations circulated to PPACTE team for feedback (October) Host Stakeholder Consultation Meeting

December - January Final report of policy recommendations Launch of Policy Recommendations and Final outputs from PPACTE

What we need from you Data, data, data and analysis from your WP – as much as possible by May and ongoing monthly summaries of key findings Suggested references for M1 Report Participation in the expert review panel and stakeholder consultation meeting

Thank you Laura Currie Fiona Godfrey