TECHNOLOGY TO UNDERSTAND AND MANAGE CLIMATE RISKS Richard J.T. Klein1,2 1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany 2. Stockholm Environment Institute–Oxford, UK UNFCCC Seminar on the Development and Transfer of Environmentally Sound Technologies for Adaptation to Climate Change Tobago, 14–16 June 2005

OUTLINE Purpose, status and outline of the background paper Adaptation to climate change: concepts and definitions The process of adapting to climate change: a framework for analysis and policymaking Implications for technology development and transfer Key messages and policy implications

TERMS OF REFERENCE To provide participants in the seminar with an overview of concepts, challenges, experiences and lessons learnt in developing, transferring and applying environmentally sound technologies for adaptation. The background paper should build on the previous papers and reports prepared by the secretariat that are relevant to adaptation, as well as on the EGTT scoping paper. The background paper could be used to form the basis for preparing the technical paper requested by SBSTA-21, to be considered by SBSTA-24.

CURRENT STATUS Contractor: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, together with Stockholm Environment Institute–Boston and Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies. Contract provisionally awarded on 27 April 2005, signed on 2 June 2005. First draft distributed for comments on 31 May 2005, comments received on 6 June 2005. Second draft distributed on 10 June 2005. Based on comments and discussion at this Seminar, a final version will be prepared and made available by late July 2005.

OUTLINE OF THE BACKGROUND PAPER (1) Introduction Context and Scope of this Paper Relevant UNFCCC Articles, Decisions and Definitions Background Adaptation to Climate Change Types of Adaptation The Process of Adapting to Climate Change Technologies for Adaptation to Climate Change The Role of Technology in Adaptation Information Development and Awareness Raising Planning and Design Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation

OUTLINE OF THE BACKGROUND PAPER (2) Technology Development and Transfer Frameworks for Facilitating Transfer of Adaptation Technologies Dimensions of Technology Transfer for Adaptation Integrating Technology Transfer for Adaptation and Development Conclusions and Workshop Discussion Points References Annex 1: Technology Transfer Decisions of the UNFCCC

ADAPTATION “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation” (IPCC TAR, 2001).

CLIMATE CHANGE including variability Human interference MITIGATION of climate change via GHG sources and sinks CLIMATE CHANGE including variability Policy responses Planned ADAPTATION to the impacts and vulnerabilities Exposure, Sensitivity Initial Impacts or Effects Autonomous Adjustments Residual or Net Impacts I M P A C T S V U L N E R A B I L I T I E S

Anticipatory Reactive Private Public Purchase of insurance Construction of house on stilts Redesign of oil-rigs Compensatory payments, subsidies Enforcement of building codes Beach nourishment Early-warning systems New building codes, design standards Incentives for relocation Changes in farm practices Changes in insurance premiums Purchase of air-conditioning Human Systems Natural Changes in length of growing season Changes in ecosystem composition Wetland migration

FORMS OF ADAPTATION Increasing robustness of infrastructural designs and long-term investments. Increasing flexibility of vulnerable managed systems. Enhancing adaptability of vulnerable natural systems. Reversing trends that increase vulnerability (“maladaptation”). Improving societal awareness and preparedness.

WHY IS ADAPTATION IMPORTANT NOW? Climate change cannot be totally avoided. Anticipatory adaptation is more effective and less costly than last-minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting. Climate change may be more rapid and pronounced than currently suggested. Surprises are possible. Immediate benefits can be gained from better adaptation to climate variability and extreme events, as well as by removing maladaptive policies and practices.

THE PROCESS OF ADAPTATION Climate variability Other stresses Existing management practices Climate change Impacts Mitigation Response Information, Awareness Planning, Design Implemen- tation Monitoring, Evaluation Adaptation Development objectives Policy criteria

ENVIRONMENTALLY SOUND TECHNOLOGIES TECHNOLOGY “A piece of equipment, technique, practical knowledge or skills for performing a particular activity” (IPCC SRTT, 2000). ENVIRONMENTALLY SOUND TECHNOLOGIES “Technologies which protect the environment, are less polluting, use all resources in a more sustainable manner, recycle more of their wastes and products, and handle residual wastes in a more acceptable manner than the technologies for which they were substitutes and are compatible with nationally determined socio-economic, cultural and environmental priorities. The term includes hard and soft technologies” (IPCC SRTT, 2000).

TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION Implicit in much of the discussions and negotiations to date is the assumption that there are no constraints on implementing the adaptation options identified and analysed. The extent to which institutions and mechanisms are in place and technologies, human and other resources are available to collect information, raise awareness, plan and prepare for adaptation options and implement them successfully is an important factor determining vulnerability to climate change.

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY “The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences” (IPCC TAR, 2001). Factors that determine adaptive capacity of human systems include economic wealth, technology and infrastructure, information, knowledge and skills, institutions, equity and social capital.

TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION Technologies to implement adaptation. Technologies to enhance adaptive capacity.

TECHNOLOGIES TO IMPLEMENT ADAPTATION Hard and soft. Simple and complex. Traditional and modern. Inexpensive and unaffordable. Locally available and requiring technology transfer.

LANDSLIDES IN TOBAGO

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Weather-related hazards are part of natural climate variability. This climate variability will be affected by climate change, leading to increased hazard potential. For sectors and communities exposed to weather-related hazards, adaptation measures will not vary with the cause of the hazard. Many technologies exist to address weather-related hazards, but not everybody has access to these technologies (adaptive capacity). Much can be learnt from the vast experience on natural hazard management and natural disaster reduction, including on the role of technologies and technology development and transfer.

NEW CHALLENGES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Not all impacts of climate change will be related to climate variability. Changing trends and irreversible processes present new challenges to communities and sectors. For these impacts, it is generally less clear whether suitable technologies for adaptation exist. Here climate change presents a new challenge, which requires further analysis to identify technology needs. A good starting point is to focus on enhancing adaptive capacity.

TECHNOLOGIES TO ENHANCE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Hard and soft. Simple and complex. Traditional and modern. Inexpensive and unaffordable. Locally available and requiring technology transfer.

EXAMPLES Information development and awareness raising: climate models and impact simulation models; early-warning systems; monitoring systems. Planning and design: decision-analytical tools; geographical information systems; process models; public participation methods. Monitoring and evaluation: indicator-based monitoring and evaluation scheme. Cross-cutting: synergies with other agreements and conventions, institutional development, mainstreaming

KEY MESSAGES Technologies for adaptation comprise hard and soft technologies to implement adaptation and technologies to enhance adaptive capacity. Many potentially very effective technologies for adaptation to climate change are simple, inexpensive and locally available. The process of adaptation involves action by a range of stakeholders operating from local to global scales. Technology application and transfer is relevant on each scale. Technology can be very important in reducing vulnerability to climate change, but it can also introduce new risks. Moreover, technology alone is not a panacea; its effectiveness depends on the economic, institutional, legal and socio-cultural contexts.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS The distinction between hard and soft technologies for adaptation requires better definition so as to identify their respective relevance to the UNFCCC and the five-year programme of work. The impractability and undesirability of distinguishing between climate variability and climate change poses a challenge to international funding for adaptation. It is unclear whether a sectoral approach to the discussion of technologies for adaptation is the most appropriate one. A matrix-approach, whereby the cells of the matrix are defined by the types of hazard and the scales on which adaptation actions are taken, may be more promising.

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