FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Republic of Moldova August 2007

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 Average monthly air temperature (°C) in 1946 and 2007 Source: State Hydrometeorological Service

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 Precipitation quantity (mm) in 1946 and 2007 Source: State Hydrometeorological Service

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 NDVI - June 2 nd Dekad – Romania Source: GIEWS Workstation

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 NDVI – June 2 nd Dekad, Ukraine NDVI – June 2 nd Dekad, Ukraine Source: GIEWS Workstation

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 NDVI - June 2 nd Dekad, Moldova NDVI - June 2 nd Dekad, Moldova Source: GIEWS Workstation

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 Growing Conditions Sept ’06 – July 07 rainfall 50-75% of normal overall Sept ’06 – July 07 rainfall 50-75% of normal overall In some southern and central areas, only 25% of normal rainfall In some southern and central areas, only 25% of normal rainfall Peak temperatures 3-4 degrees> normal Peak temperatures 3-4 degrees> normal Soil moisture 1/3 of normal Soil moisture 1/3 of normal Comes after the 2003 drought, and dry weather in the south during 2005/06 Comes after the 2003 drought, and dry weather in the south during 2005/06

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 Impact on Agricultural Production Total area 2006 Total production 2006 Total Area 2007 Estimated production as % of 2006 Crop (000) ha(000) tons(000) ha(000) tons Winter wheat Winter barley Spring barley Peas Corn Sunflower Sugarbeet Soya Tobacco

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 Impact on Agriculture – Livestock (lack of pasture, feed, low incomes) Opportunity cost of lost production, at market prices, nearly 300 mln euros for cereal crops only Opportunity cost of lost production, at market prices, nearly 300 mln euros for cereal crops only De-stocking of 1/3 to ½ of household cattle holdings depending on area De-stocking of 1/3 to ½ of household cattle holdings depending on area Loss to the livestock sector, esp cattle: NPV value of flow of benefits (milk, offspring, growing out weight) likely larger than for crops Loss to the livestock sector, esp cattle: NPV value of flow of benefits (milk, offspring, growing out weight) likely larger than for crops

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 Impact on Rural Households Lower or no returns to land Lower or no returns to land Much less food from home garden production Much less food from home garden production Loss of savings, food and income from liquidated family livestock Loss of savings, food and income from liquidated family livestock Increased food expenditures, at higher nominal prices Increased food expenditures, at higher nominal prices Higher prices for other basic requirements (energy, gas, heating, etc.) Higher prices for other basic requirements (energy, gas, heating, etc.) Reduction in foreign market share and income for wine and spirits Reduction in foreign market share and income for wine and spirits

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 Trade and Food Balance Position Percent coverage of imports by exports: from 56.3% in 2003 to 39% in 2006 Percent coverage of imports by exports: from 56.3% in 2003 to 39% in 2006 Deficit can be made up from commercial imports Deficit can be made up from commercial imports Main problem: access by poor households with less of their own production (land, home gardens, livestock), facing either prices Main problem: access by poor households with less of their own production (land, home gardens, livestock), facing either prices

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 Financial losses/Indebtedness Financial sector: highly capitalized, lends little to the ag sector, can finance the next season Financial sector: highly capitalized, lends little to the ag sector, can finance the next season Very small farms: borrow very little Very small farms: borrow very little Small associations NFFM, own funds, relatives, Small associations NFFM, own funds, relatives, Larger associations, LLCs will have to reimburse partially and reschedule debt to banks, S&Ls, Input suppliers Larger associations, LLCs will have to reimburse partially and reschedule debt to banks, S&Ls, Input suppliers Producers have borne most of the risk of exposure to disaster Producers have borne most of the risk of exposure to disaster

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 Short-term (Emergency) Measures Heavily producer-subsidized inputs for Winter crops (October planting), including forage crops Heavily producer-subsidized inputs for Winter crops (October planting), including forage crops Livestock feed/concentrate to avoid further destocking Livestock feed/concentrate to avoid further destocking Tax relief: land, rural economic activities, import duties Tax relief: land, rural economic activities, import duties Expanded social protection programs (allowances, school meals, use of school canteens for the vulnerable) Expanded social protection programs (allowances, school meals, use of school canteens for the vulnerable) Cash-for-public works Cash-for-public works Fortification of domestic/imported wheat against iron deficiency Fortification of domestic/imported wheat against iron deficiency

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 Medium-term Measures Reconstitution of household livestock assets (diversification, e.g. rabbits) Reconstitution of household livestock assets (diversification, e.g. rabbits) Plant genetic material: choice, selection, multiplication, risk-mitigation (e.g. red sorghum for livestock feed) Plant genetic material: choice, selection, multiplication, risk-mitigation (e.g. red sorghum for livestock feed) Proper emphasis on diversification, adaptation, and extension to home garden food production Proper emphasis on diversification, adaptation, and extension to home garden food production Improved access to water resources for home gardens, including appropriate low-cost pumps, other technologies Improved access to water resources for home gardens, including appropriate low-cost pumps, other technologies Better use of water resources for home garden food production, including rainwater harvesting Better use of water resources for home garden food production, including rainwater harvesting Use of information for food security monitoring, early warning Use of information for food security monitoring, early warning

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 Long-term Measures (start now!) Components of a sustainable ag sector strategy: crop mix, varietal selection, protection of the resource base, efficient use of water resources Components of a sustainable ag sector strategy: crop mix, varietal selection, protection of the resource base, efficient use of water resources Financial sector reform - integrated with: Financial sector reform - integrated with: Agricultural insurance sector reform Agricultural insurance sector reform

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007 MOLDOVA – Logistics Options Cahul Balti Chisinau Odessa Reni Entry points Ports Rail & Road options Storage Roads Milling Implementing partner ROMANIA UKRAINE

Thank you! Questions and comments welcome