Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA ): Model Description and Applications Bruce Junkins, Suren Kulshreshtha & Marie Boehm Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum Sheperdstown, WV, October 2, 2001

èDevelop a model to assess impacts of mitigation strategies on  GHG emissions from the agriculture and agri-food sector  economic indicators èEstimate 1990 GHG emission levels èForecast 2010 GHG emission levels based on business as usual scenario èEstimate impact of selected options on GHG emission levels and economic indicators for the sector Objectives

èBased on an existing policy analysis model (Canadian Regional Agricultural Model - CRAM) èGreenhouse Gas Emissions module links levels of agricultural activities to emission coefficients èIntegrated model (Canadian Economic Emissions Model for Agriculture - CEEMA) incorporates science with policy analysis èCEEMA goes beyond primary agriculture and IPCC accounting to include forward and backward linkages (farm inputs, off-farm transportation, food processing) Modeling Framework

Land Base Cultivated Land Uncultivated Land Non-land resources Economic Optimization Model (Canadian Regional Agricultural Model) Economic Optimization Model (Canadian Regional Agricultural Model) Technology of Production Product and Input Markets Level of Crop and Livestock Productio n Farm Input Demand Shipment s and Trade Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model Science of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimation of coefficients Science of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimation of coefficients Producer and Consumer Surplus Producer and Consumer Surplus Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Agriculture and Agri-Food Sector Schematic of the Components of CEEMA

Policy Model – CRAM èStatic, non-linear optimization model èMaximizes producer + consumer surplus èIntegrates all sectors of primary agriculture èRegional supply/demand èInter-provincial and international trade èGovernment policies/subsidies èTransportation and handling èLand is the only resource constraint èCrop supply response determined by relative profitability of alternative crops

èRegional Coverage  29 crop production regions  22 in the Prairie region  1 each in other provinces  Provincial level for livestock, dairy and poultry èLand types  Cropland  Hayland  Improved Pasture  Unimproved Land CRAM

Crop Production Regions in CRAM Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba

West Wheat (4 grades) Durum Wheat Feed Barley Malting barley Canola Flax Oats Lentils Field peas Potatoes Hay Pasture Other crops East Wheat Soybeans Feed barley Corn grain Corn silage Potatoes Hay Pasture Other crops Fallow/Stubble Split (West) Wheat Durum Canola Lentils Tillage Practices (West) Intensive Moderate No-till CRAM - Field Crops

Cattle basic herd Cows Heifers Calves Bulls Cattle feedlot operations Steers Heifers Hogs Sows Growers Dairy Cows Heifers Calves Fluid milk Industrial milk Poultry Chickens Layers Turkeys CRAM - Livestock

CRAM - Economic Coverage Crops Area planted Production costs (variable) Yields Prices Trade Food demand Feed demand Livestock Animal numbers Production costs (variable) Yields Prices Trade:- live animals - meat Meat consumption Other Government payments Consumer and producer surplus Transportation costs Handling costs

è100 year Global Warming Equivalent estimates of CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O emissions èEmission coefficients based on latest scientific information  biophysical models (CENTURY)  expert opinion (AAFC Research Branch, IPCC and Environment Canada) èDisaggregate approach - emissions of each GHG are estimated for each region, crop and livestock production activities, and source of GHG emissions èEstimated emissions =emissions coefficient * production activity level èFlexibility in method of summation (e.g. total agriculture and agri-food sector vs. IPCC/Inventory methodology) Greenhouse Gas Emissions Module

CEEMA Accounting of the Agriculture and Agri-Food Sector

CEEMA Accounting of the Agriculture and Agri-Food Sector (cont’d)

(million tonnes CO 2 equivalents) GHG Emissions from Agriculture

èSoil nutrient management  Better matching of N to crop requirements èSoil Management*  Increase use of no-till  Decrease use of summerfallow  Increase use of permanent cover èGrazing Management*  Decrease cattle stocking rates + complimentary grazing + rotational grazing èChange Animal Diets  Reduce protein intake, additives (hogs. poultry, dairy) èAgroforestry  Shelterbelts * Soil Sinks Agriculture and Agri-Food Table Options Report

Percent Change in CO2-Eq Emissions Relative to 2010 Baseline (CENTURY) 2010 Target Nut. Mgt. SummerfallowGrazingShelterbelts No-TillPCPAnimal Diets Total Reductions % change

Total Reductions % change Percent Change in CO2-Eq Emissions Relative to 2010 Baseline (Expert Opinion) 2010 Target Nut. Mgt. SummerfallowGrazingShelterbelts No-Till PCP Animal Diets

èEstimate scale of sink potential for 1 st commitment period èLand based accounting èImprovements to Table analysis èLow, medium and high adoption rates of BMP related to change in soil carbon èCropland management  frequency of no-till  frequency of summerfallow èGrazing land management  conversion of cropland to permanent cover  intensity of pasture and grazing land management èShelterbelts Canadian Submission to the UNFCC (proposals related to Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3)

Tg CO 2 Eq. Estimated Total Agricultural Emissions and Sinks in 1990 and 2010

Tg CO 2 -Eq. Increased carbon sequestration on grazing land. Decreased N 2 O emissions from fertilizer due to less land under annual crops. Increased CH 4 and N 2 O emissions due to expanded livestock herd. Net emission reductions of 0.6 million tonnes per year. If no livestock increase, then could be an additional 1 Mt reduction. Example: Estimated Impacts of 1 m ha Permanent Cover and Cattle Increase on GHG Emissions (2010) Importance of Net GHG Accounting

èImpacts of agriculture on GHG emissions go beyond the primary sector èImportance of soil sinks èGHG reduction targets may be achievable through a series of actions based on existing technology èTrade-off between GHG reduction and increased agricultural production (especially livestock) èMeasures to promote adoption of mitigation practices èUncertainty of GHG coefficients èEnvironmental co-benefits Key Messages

èCollaboration with broad research community èAnalyze additional mitigation scenarios as input to National Business Plan èTargeted Measures and Domestic Emissions Trading Working Groups èImprove economic component of CEEMA (better regional disaggregation and farm level production data) èIncorporate price of carbon for analysis of emissions trading options èImprove GHG coefficients based on scientific research reflective of Canadian conditions èImprove links to agri-food sector and transportation of bulk commodities èAnalysis of non-food markets (biofuels, strawboard) èInvestigate the dynamics of climate change, potential impacts and possible adaptation Future Activities