1 ACT AND ADAPT: CLIMATE CHANGE IN SCOTLAND Climate Change Division

2

3 Climate Change: Science 2,000 international scientists say humans cause global warming, and climate change is faster than expected. Without action on greenhouse gases, global temperature will rise 2-4°C, and maybe 6°C, this century. Significant risk that global warming will accelerate, leading to sudden or irreversible climate change. Rising temperature, rising sea level, melting ice sheets, ocean acidification, extreme climate events. The poor and vulnerable will be worst affected.

4

5 Climate Change: Global Action A new global treaty on climate change is vital to stop global warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Global greenhouse gas emissions to be stabilised by around 2020, then reduced by at least 50% of 1990 levels by Action by developed and developing world needed. Against background of economic problems, United Nations meets in Copenhagen in December Agreement of USA, China, India and Brazil on fossil fuels, deforestation and finance for the developing world is crucial.

6 Climate Change: European Union and UK European Union is leading global action. Target to deliver 20% emissions cuts by 2020, increasing to 30% if there is a global agreement. Targets to establish a 20% share for renewable energy, and to improve energy efficiency by 20%. The UK has also acted unilaterally through its Climate Change Act 2008, setting a target of 80% cuts by EU and UK are committed to a low carbon economy.

7 Scottish Ministers’ Policy Climate change is a serious threat. Scotland can act as a model of international best practice to influence international action. The shift to a low carbon economy is a major opportunity, particularly for economic recovery. Scotland to be green energy capital of Europe. Cost of action is much less than cost of inaction.

8 Scotland: Legislation

9 Scottish Ministers’ Climate Change Bill is world-leading climate legislation: Covers all greenhouse gases. Covers international aviation and shipping. System of annual targets cutting greenhouse gases interim target, at least 42% cut in emissions if EU adopts 30% target. Target of 80% cut in emissions by 2050.

10 Scotland: Transport Emissions are Rising

11 Scotland: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Consumption in Scotland continues to rise. Greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland rose by 5.4% from 2005 to 2006, mostly increased coal power generation due to high gas prices and outages at nuclear stations. Despite this, emissions at 59 MtCO2e in 2006 were still 13.4% lower than the international baseline, mainly due to the shift away from heavy industry. Emissions in 2007 are expected to fall to around 20% below the baseline. Emissions figures are volatile.

12 Total net GHG emissions in 2006 were 88% of 1990 emissions Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry - need to fall by 80% by Agriculture Energy Supply Transport Business (incl. industrial processes) Residential Public Waste International Aviation & Shipping Scotland: The Challenge

13 Committee on Climate Change

14 Committee on Climate Change The Committee has recommended: Rapid “decarbonisation” of electricity production. More wind power. Energy efficiency at home and work. Increasing green electricity for heat and transport. Decarbonisation of industry.

15 Scotland: Green Energy Capital of Europe

16 Scotland: Delivery Strong low carbon energy plan based on 10 energy pledges. Target of 31% renewable energy by 2011 and 50% by Huge potential for offshore wind and marine energy (£10m Saltire Prize). At leading edge of developing carbon capture and storage. 50% of emissions covered by carbon trading schemes. £2.6 billion over 3 years on greener transport. Aspiration to increase forest cover from 17% to 25%.

17 Scotland: Delivery £15m for a new area-based energy efficiency in homes. £27m Climate Challenge Fund funding community carbon reduction projects. Commitment to assess carbon impact of Government budgets from Public sector: National Health Service has reduced emissions by 40% compared to Business: £0.2m for Prince of Wales Mayday climate change business network, via Scottish Business in the Community.

18 Scotland: Adaptation Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework Exposure Adaptive Capacity Competing Pressures