97 pages in print 3,800 pages in the CD

Table of Contents Executive summary Chapter 1 Fifteen Global Challenges Chapter 2 Global SOFI Chapter 3 National SOFIs Chapter 4 Future Ethical Issues Chapter 5 Nanotech – Preventing downsides Chapter 6 Environmental Security Chapter 7 Sustainable Development Index CD-ROM of 3,800 Pages

2005 SOF’s CD Section Executive Summary (11 pages) 1. Global Challenges (790 pages) 2. State of the Future Index Section (Global SOFI (220); National SOFIs (33) Global Challenges Assessment (94)) 3. Future Ethical Issues (80 pages) 4. Global Scenarios (Normative to the Year 2050 (18); Exploratory (40); Very Long- Range Scenarios—1,000 years (23); Counterterrorism (40); S&T 2025 Global Scenarios (19); Middle East Peace Scenarios (90) 5. Science and Technology (Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400); Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21) 6. Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages) 7. World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages) 8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development (Measuring SD (59); Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9); Partnership for SD (48) 9. Environmental Security (510 pages) (Emerging ES Issues; ES: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations; UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions; Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives; ES and Potential Military Requirements) 10. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)

Appendices Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants (affiliation/country) Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section Appendix C: Global Ethics Appendix D: Global Scenarios Appendix E: Science and Technology Appendix F: Global Goals for The Year 2050 Appendix G: World Leaders on Global Challenges Appendix H: Measuring & Promoting Sustainable Development Appendix I: Environmental Security Studies Appendix J: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking Appendix K: Annotated Bibliography of About 600 Scenario Sets Appendix L: Publications of the Millennium Project Acronyms and Abbreviations

Highlights Organized crime is more than twice that of all military budgets worldwide Internet connects 1 billion people - 15% of the World 60% of the environmental life support system is gone or unsustainable 24-7 ubiquitous computing accelerates decisionmaking IQ as competitive advantage in the knowledge economy Indo/China’s hightech/low wage forces rest of Third World to re-think trade-lead growth strategies 500 environmental agreement; faster implications – Chart on Page 87: rising global environmental consciousness Nanotech health/environmental impacts rapidly being assessed.

The Future will be more than most people think The rate of change over the last 25 years ago, will appear slow compared to the next 15 years. Compare last 25 years – no PCs, WWW, mobile phones, AIDS, Cold War – with next: NIBCtechs, social self-organization, global brain, conscious-technology Failure of imagination, losing opportunities

Examples of some future ethical issues Do we have a right to clone ourselves? Do parents have the right to create genetically altered “designer babies”? Should there be two standards: one for the technologically altered and another for the “naturals?”

Values underlying such issues may change over time A Delphi panel of over 400 selected by the 25 Nodes of the Millennium Project for their scholarship and/or interest in future ethical issues. The panel rated which values were likely to increase and decrease around the world over the next 50 years/

Values likely to decrease over the next 50 years: Life is a divine unalterable gift. Economic progress is the most reliable path to human happiness. The family in all its forms is the foundation of social values. Human rights should always prevail over the rights of other living and non-living things.

Values likely to increase over the next 50 years: Harmony with nature is more important than economic progress. Protection of the environment and biodiversity should be considered in any policy. The rights of women and children are uninfringeable and fundamental for a healthy society. World interests should prevail over nation-state interests. Human space migration is part of human evolution. Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to request rights should be given these rights and be treated with the same respect as humans

Millennium Project Global Challenges Assessment 182 Developments 180 Developments Issues with 131 Actions & 15 Opportunities with 213 Actions Distilled Into Challenges with 213 Actions Global Challenges  General description  Regional views  Actions  Indicators Global State of the Future Index (SOFI) National SOFIs ( 8 countries of the Americas)

15 Global Challenges 1.Sustainable Development 2.Water 3.Population and Resources 4.Democratization 5.Global, Long-Term Policymaking 6.Globalization of Information Technology 7.Rich-Poor Gap 8. Changing disease threats 9. Decision-Making Capacities 10. Peace & Conflict 11. Improving Women’s Status 12. Transnational Crime 13. Energy Demands 14. Science & Technology 15. Global Ethics

Why did the SOFI grow? GDP per capita grew Calories per capita increased Life expectancy grew Literacy grew Infant Mortality dropped Access to Fresh Water improved Access to Health Care improved School Enrollment Improved What held the SOFI back? Industrial CO 2 emissions grew Unemployment moved increased Forest Lands dropped Rich Poor Gap grew AIDs Deaths grew Developing Country Debt increased Terrorist Attacks SOFI Analysis

Environmental security is environmental viability for life support… with three sub-elements: Preventing or repairing military damage to the environment Preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts Protecting the environment due to the moral value of the environment itself

UN & EU is taking initiatives in environmental management UN Reform Report Stresses Environmental Issues UN Report Recommends Basis for Global Security Consensus UN to Help Tackle Iraq Pollution UN Conference On Small Island States and Climate Change UN Conference ‘Water for Food and Ecosystems’ Additional Environmental Security Role for the UN Security Council EU Environment Ministers Propose post-Kyoto Protocol Climate Policies EU Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme active on January 1, 2005 EU to Ban the use of Cadmium in Batteries UK Cooperation with India and Others on the Environment and Sust. Dev. Conference on Environment, Security and Sustainable Development in The Hague European Parliament Resolution to Protect Whales From Sonar OECD Environment Ministers Call for more Ambitious Policies Kyoto Protocol came into force in February 2005 Clean Air for Europe Initiative to Limit Air Pollution Stockholm Convention on POPs to be Expanded

Mini Nanotechnology Two-Round Delphi Study What are potential military uses and their possible health hazards and environmental impacts? between now and 2010 and between 2010 and 2025? What do we have to know to reduce or prevent these potential problems? What are general research priorities to produce the relevant knowledge to improve future prospects with Nanotech?

... is a new kind of think tank The Millennium Project

It is Global... âGeographically âInstitutionally âDisciplinarily âResearch focus

UN Organizations NGOs Universities Governments Corporations Millennium Project … May become a TransInstitution

Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training. Buenos AiresSidney Cyber Washington, DC Cairo London Prague Moscow Rome Madurai Tokyo Beijing Tehran Sao Paulo Caracas Helsinki Paris New Delhi Calgary Silicon Valley Berlin Kuwait Pretoria Mexico City Seoul

Millennium Project Nodes Memorandum of Understands with: Government Institutions Russian Academy of Natural Sciences Chinese Academy of Natural Sciences Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Slovakian Academy of Sciences Private Companies Tokyo (aerospace) Berlin (futures planning) Buenos Aires (futures planning) Silicon Valley (USA) (venture capital) New Delhi (futures, strategy planning) Universities Prague London Rome Sao Paulo Cairo Helsinki Tehran Kodaikanal (India) NGOs Venezuela (WFS chapter) Mexico (new NGO as Node) Kuwait (non-profit research institute) Korea (futures organization) Paris (futurist network)

United Nations University (UNU) is the principal academic research organ of the UN, headquartered in Tokyo. The American Council for the UNU (AC/UNU) created in 1975 as U.S. NGO as the point of contact between Americans and the UNU. The Millennium Project operates under the auspices of the AC/UNU. Relationship of the UNU, AC/UNU, and the Millennium Project

Previous Sponsors over past 10 years Corporations Applied Materials Deloitte & Touche LLP Ford Motor Company General Motors Hughes Space and Communications Monsanto Company Motorola Corporation Pioneer Hi-Bred International Shell International Foundations Alan F. Kay & Hazel Henderson Foundation for Social Innovation Amana-Kay Foundation for Social Innovation Foundation for the Future Government Organizations U.S. Environmental Protection Agency U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute U.S. Department of Energy Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Kuwait Oil Company UN Organizations UNDP UNESCO United Nations University

Global Energy Scenarios Futures Research Methodology - V 3.0 Monthly reports of international environmental security issues Futures Dictionary/Encyclopedia Up-dating Annotated Scenario Bibliography Middle East Peace Scenarios dissemination and discussions National State of the Future Indexes (SOFIs) Updating & Improving Global Challenges and publish 2006 SOF Women Issues Organizations and their Research Experiments with Collaborative Software Current Activities

Futures Research Methodology V Introduction & Overview15. Simulation and Games 2.Environmental Scanning16. Genius Forecasting, Vision, and Int. 3.Delphi 17. Normative Forecasting 4.Futures Wheel18. S&T Road Mapping 5.Trend Impact Analysis19. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) 6.Cross-Impact Analysis 20. Text Mining for Technology Foresight 7.Structural Analysis21. Agent Modeling 8.Systems Perspectives22. SOFI 9.Decision Modeling 23. SOFI Software 10.Statistical Modeling 24. The Multiple Perspective Concept 11.Technological Sequence Analysis25. Tool Box for Scenario Planning 12.Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis26. Causal Layered Analysis 13.Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios27. Integration, Comparisons, and 14.Participatory Methods Frontiers of Futures Research Methods

The Millennium Project