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Decision-relevant Science: Who Distrusts Whom About What and Why? Dan M. Kahan Yale University & many many others! Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES , &

Trust and the science communication problem

Public opinion: federal govt should fund science Agree or disagree? source: NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2014, ch. 7.

Public opinion: federal govt should fund science Agree or disagree? source: NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2014, ch. 7.

Public opinion: amount of federal funding? Too little or too much? source: NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2014, ch. 7.

Public opinion: amount of federal funding? Too little or too much? source: NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2014, ch. 7.

Federal support for science research source: NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2014, ch. 7. Level of support for science research U.S. Public Opinion

Public opinion: amount of federal funding? Too little or too much? source: NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2014, ch. 7.

How would you feel if son/daughter grew up to be a scientist? happy unhappy (boy) unhappy (girl) percent source: NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2014, ch. 7.

How would you feel if son/daughter grew up to be a scientist? happy unhappy (boy) unhappy (girl) happy percent source: NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2014, ch. 7.

How would you feel if son/daughter grew up to be a scientist? happy unhappy (boy) unhappy (girl) happy percent (boy) (girl) unhappy source: NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2014, ch. 7.

How would you feel if son/daughter grew up to be a scientist? happy unhappy (boy) unhappy (girl) happy percent (boy) (girl) unhappy source: NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2014, ch. 7.

How would you feel if son/daughter grew up to be a scientist? happy unhappy (boy) unhappy (girl) happy percent (boy) (girl) unhappy source: NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2014, ch. 7.

“scientists are helping to solve challenging problems” “scientists are dedicated people who work for the good of humanity” Are scientists public spirited? source: NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2014, ch. 7. % % % % % % % % % % %

Trust and the science communication problem

1.Members of the public do trust scientists. 2. Members of culturally opposing groups distrust each other. 3.When facts become entangled in conflicts between culturally opposing groups, members of the public will form divergent perceptions of what scientists believe. Trust and the science communication problem

1.Members of the public do trust scientists. 2. Members of culturally opposing groups distrust each other. 3.When facts become entangled in conflicts between culturally opposing groups, members of the public will form divergent perceptions of what scientists believe. Trust and the science communication problem

1.Members of the public do trust scientists. 2.Members of culturally opposing groups distrust each other 3.When facts become entangled in conflicts between culturally opposing groups, members of the public will form divergent perceptions of what scientists believe. Trust and the science communication problem

1.Members of the public do trust scientists. 2.Members of culturally opposing groups distrust each other when they perceive their status is at risk. 3.When facts become entangled in status conflicts between culturally opposing groups, members of the public will form divergent perceptions of what scientists believe. Trust and the science communication problem

1.Members of the public do trust scientists. 2.Members of culturally opposing groups distrust each other when they perceive their status is at risk. 3.When facts become entangled in status conflicts between culturally opposing groups, Trust and the science communication problem

1.Members of the public do trust scientists. 2.Members of culturally opposing groups distrust each other when they perceive their status is at risk. 3.When facts become entangled in status conflicts between culturally opposing groups, members of the public will form divergent perceptions of what scientists believe. Trust and the science communication problem

Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, (2011).

Hierarchy Egalitarianism marijuana legalization Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Gays military/gay parenting Environment: climate, nuclear hierarchical communitarians egalitarian individualists Cultural Cognition Worldviews egalitarian communitarians Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk cats/annoying varmints hierarchical individualists abortion protestors/war protesotrs

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Environment: climate, nuclear

Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, (2011).

High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive) Climate Change

Low Risk (safe) High Risk (not safe) Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes

High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime) Concealed Carry Laws

N = 1,500. Derived from ordered-logit regression analysis, controlling for demographic and political affiliation/ideology variables. Culture variables set 1 SD from mean on culture scales. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence Concealed Carry Climate Change Nuclear Power 31% 54% 22% 58% 61% 72% Difference in Likelihood of Agreeing Scientist is “Expert” 60% 40% 20% 0 20% 40% 60% Egalitarian Communitarian More Likely to Agree Hierarchical Individualist More Likely to Agree Featured scientist is a knowledgeable and credible expert on...

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Individualism Communitarianism Climate change Nuclear waste disposal Concealed carry bans

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Cultural Cognition Worldviews Individualism Communitarianism Climate change Nuclear waste disposal Perceived Scientific Consensus: Low Risk High Risk Concealed carry bans

1.Members of the public do trust scientists. 2.Members of culturally opposing groups distrust each other when they perceive their status is at risk. 3.When facts become entangled in status conflicts between culturally opposing groups, members of the public will form divergent perceptions of what scientists believe. Trust and the science communication problem

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Individualism Communitarianism HPV Vaccination Cultural Cognition Worldviews HPV Vaccination

“The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...” Pct. Agree No Argument

Pct. Agree “The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...” No Argument Balanced Argument

“The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...” Pct. Agree No Argument Balanced Argument

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Communitarianism Individualism Culturally Identifiable Experts

“The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...” Pct. Agree No Argument Balanced Argument

“The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...” Pct. Agree No Argument Expected Argument/Advocate Alignment Balanced Argument

“The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...” Pct. Agree No Argument Expected Argument/Advocate Alignment Balanced Argument

“The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...” Pct. Agree No Argument Expected Argument/Advocate Alignment Unexpected Argument/Advocate Alignment Balanced Argument

No Argument Expected Argument/Advocate Alignment Unexpected Argument/Advocate Alignment Balanced Argument Pct. Agree “The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...”

1.Members of the public do trust scientists. 2.Members of culturally opposing groups distrust each other when they perceive their status is at risk. 3.When facts become entangled in status conflicts between culturally opposing groups, members of the public will form divergent perceptions of what scientists believe. Trust and the science communication problem

1.Members of the public do trust scientists. 2.Members of culturally opposing groups distrust each other when they perceive their status is at risk. 3.When facts become entangled in status conflicts between culturally opposing groups, members of the public will form divergent perceptions of what scientists believe. 4. Prescription: Trust and the science communication problem

1.Members of the public do trust scientists. 2.Members of culturally opposing groups distrust each other when they perceive their status is at risk. 3.When facts become entangled in status conflicts between culturally opposing groups, members of the public will form divergent perceptions of what scientists believe. 4. Prescription: To translate public trust in science into convergence on science-informed policy, Trust and the science communication problem

1.Members of the public do trust scientists. 2.Members of culturally opposing groups distrust each other when they perceive their status is at risk. 3.When facts become entangled in status conflicts between culturally opposing groups, members of the public will form divergent perceptions of what scientists believe. 4.Prescription: To translate public trust in science into convergence on science-informed policy, protect decision-relevant science from entanglement in culturally antagonisitic meanings! Trust and the science communication problem

Hierarchy Egalitarianism marijuana legalization Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Gays military/gay parenting Environment: climate, nuclear Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk HPV vaccination abortion protestors/war protesotrs

HPV vaccine HBV vaccine

HPV vaccine HBV vaccine pertussis polio MMR childhood (19-35 mos.) vaccination coverage HBV

June 2006 Feb Merck’s Gardasil marketing strategy…

vs.

June 2006 Feb Merck’s Gardasil marketing strategy…

June 2006 Feb Merck’s Gardasil marketing strategy… Oct. 2009

Merck’s Gardasil marketing strategy…

Oct Merck’s Gardasil marketing strategy…

Culturally Identifiable Experts Source: Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition. L. & Human Behavior 34, (2010). Hierarchy Egalitarianism Communitarianism Individualism

J. Am. Med. Ass’n 297, (2007) Oct. 2005…

Oct. 2007

Trust and the science communication problem

Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to