Presentation to 40 th Meeting of the APEC Energy Working Group Brunei Darussalam November 2010

APEC Energy Ministers Instructions on Nuclear Power at EMM-9 Ministers noted that “a growing number of interested economies are using nuclear power to diversify their energy mix and limit carbon emissions.” Ministers instructed EWG “to undertake a Nuclear Power Emissions Reduction Potential Study (NUPERPS) on the potential for existing and planned nuclear power plants in interested APEC economies to reduce carbon emissions.”

Step 1 – Nuclear Plant Data Figure out how many nuclear plants exist, are under construction, and are planned in interested APEC economies. Sources of data include energy information agencies, electricity generating companies, and nuclear power vendors. Data are collected and compiled worldwide by the IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna.

Step 2 – Estimate Fossil Fuel Displacement and CO2 Savings Collect estimates already made by various APEC economies of how much coal, gas and oil used for electricity generation is already being displaced or could be displaced by nuclear plants. Also collect estimates from APEC economies of the resulting reductions in carbon emissions. Collect information through a combination of literature review and survey of interested economies.

Step 3 – Model Carbon Emissions Reductions by APEC Economy Systematically model emissions reductions from existing and planned nuclear plants in each interested APEC economy, using a least-cost generating model. This would require obtaining detailed information on the generating mix in each economy. There are many available models from which to choose and several consulting firms with long experience in applying such models for electric utility clients. Could add results from different models in different economies, or choose a common model.

Step 4 – Disseminate Findings Compile and publicize study results to raise public awareness of the potential of nuclear power to limit global greenhouse gas emissions. This would be done through APEC website and journal, trade press, and ministerial meetings.

Simplified Analytic Approach Look at how many tons of CO2 would be emitted in a reference case with project nuclear generation. Look at how many tons of CO2 would be emitted if nuclear generation remains constant at 2010 levels. Compare the “reference case” and “constant nuclear” case to find the difference in CO2 emissions. Caveat: Model uses average fuel mix for electricity generation in each of several regions – not as accurate as a detailed electricity model for each separate grid.

Quick Trial Run – EIA WEPS EIA assumes nuclear generation short term – through 2020 – based on current plans and projections of industry and governments for plant construction. EIA assumes nuclear generation long term – after 2020 – based on a combination of announced plans or goals, economics, geopolitics, technology advances, environmental policies, uranium availability. Initial run had a glitch – model grew USA nuclear generation just like in the reference case even when we asked it to hold nuclear generation constant. (So have to adjust APEC totals later to add in United States.)

EIA WEPS Reference Case: Nuclear Generation in Billion kWh USA Canada Mexico11 18 Japan Korea AUS/NZ Russia China Ind/VN APEC

EIA WEPS Reference Case: Carbon Emissions in Million Tonnes USA5,5605,8115,9666,1056,2596,412 Canada Mexico Japan1,0691,1021,1141,1061,0851,064 Korea AUS/NZ Russia1,6571,6421,6481,6661,7151,811 China6,8117,7169,05710,51411,94513,326 Ind/VN1,7411,9462,1632,4782,8823,362 APEC18,80620,26622,08824,17326,36928,684

Increase in Carbon Emissions with No New Nuclear (Million Tonnes) USA Canada Mexico Japan Korea AUS/NZ Russia China Ind/VN APEC less USA

Next Steps Which economies are interested? Which economies have available models? Which economies can contribute estimates? Should we start by adding up estimated emissions reductions from models in various economies? Should we go on to use a common model?