Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA Presentation about National SOFI’s Millennium Project, Venezuela Node José Luis Cordeiro Washington, July 30, 2004

The future is no longer what it used to be. Mafalda Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

What variables should be included in a national SOFI? How can very different variables be combined? How can the variables be forecast? How can the variables be weighted? How can double accounting be avoided? Design of National SOFI’s Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

SOFI selection of variables SOFI data collection Forecasting the data (TIA) Analysis National SOFI report Procedure for National SOFI’s Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

1. Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 2. Food availability (calories per capita in low–income countries) 3. GDP per capita, PPP (constant 1995 dollars) 4. Share of households with access to safe water (15 most populated countries) 5. Mean monthly carbon dioxide in atmosphere (ppm) 6. Annual population addition (million) 7. Percent unemployed (world) 8. Literacy rate, adult total (in low- and middle-income countries) 9. Annual AIDS deaths (million) 1 0. Life expectancy (world) 1 1. Number of armed conflicts (those with at least 1,000 deaths per year) 1 2. Developing-country debt 1 3. Forestlands (million hectares) 1 4. People living on less than $2 per day (billion, without China) 1 5. Terrorist attacks (number of people killed or wounded) 1 6. Violent crime (per 100,000 population, in 17 countries) 1 7. Share of population living in countries that are not free 1 8. Secondary school enrollment (% of school age) 1 9. Share of population with access to health care (15 most populated countries) 2 0. Number of countries having or thought to have nuclear capacity Variables in the 2003 SOFI Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

Missing data for National SOFI’s Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

USA Chile Venezuela Canada Brazil Argentina Mexico Colombia Ecuador Peru National SOFI’s (in the Americas) Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

ArgentiinaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaEcuadorMexicoPeruVenezuelaUSA 19830,7850,8151,0191,0001,0401,4890,9931,0581,1950, ,1080,8271,0311,017 1,5050,9951,0451,1720, ,9360,8301,0400,5730,8761,2790,8400,7820,9910, ,9660,8771,0440,6710,8881,1880,8360,8140,9980, ,9750,9021,0500,7470,9160,9970,8330,8741,0160, ,9750,9281,0590,8400,9230,9140,8280,9111,0320, ,8420,9471,0120,9360,9290,8410,8630,8620,8980, ,9740,8900,9050,7760,9040,8840,8640,8190,8040, ,0350,8920,8780,8320,9370,9260,8750,8460,8490, ,0450,8830,8650,8690,9770,9440,8930,7890,8600, ,0260,8660,8560,8801,0060,9720,8970,7380,8410, ,0100,9010,8670,8841,0311,0500,9010,8240,8130, ,9180,9400,8760,9391,0301,1090,8160,8710,9030, ,9350,9610,8760,9630,9971,1170,8860,9220,9120, ,9680,9620,8990,9701,0011,1210,9470,9630,9640, ,970 0,9230,9170,9721,0780,9590,9690,9710, ,9680,9060,9440,8860,8770,8800,9860,9750,8770, ,9750,9320,9840,8870,8770,9780,9980,9931,0021, ,9430,9210,9970,8560,9511,0981,0071,0281,0091, ,0021,0160,9761,0201,0030,9990,9921,0081,0011, ,0041,0170,9831,0361,007 1,0010,9951,0071, ,0061,0290,9901,0521,0111,0061,0101,0021,0131, ,0091,0410,9971,0671,0151,0041,0191,0091,0181, ,0111,0531,0041,0821,0201,0021,0281,0161,0231, ,0131,0671,0111,0961,0241,0001,0371,0221,0281, ,0161,0801,0181,1101,0290,9991,0461,0291,0331, ,0181,0941,0241,1231,0330,9971,0551,0351,0381, ,0201,1081,0311,1361,0380,9951,0641,0411,0421, ,0231,1231,0381,1491,0420,9931,0741,047 1,073

National SOFI’s (base 2002 = 1) Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

Review methodology Define variables and weights Improve data collection Expande country set Cross regional comparisons Historical comparisons of forecasts Base case analysis and other scenarios Comparison with other indexes Next Steps for National SOFI’s Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA

¡Muchas gracias! Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA