Adaptive Management to Conserve Red Knots Gregory Breese Delaware Bay Estuary Project US Fish and Wildlife Service

Credits FWS Programs: Fisheries Ecological Services – Coastal Ecological Services – Endangered Species Migratory Birds – R5 Migratory Birds – WO Key External Partners Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission United State Geological Survey New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection Delaware Dept of Natural Resources and Environmental Control Conserve Wildlife Foundation of New Jersey Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University British Trust for Ornithology

Delaware Bay Adaptive Resource Management Working Group: Conor P. McGowan, USGS, Alabama Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit David R. Smith, USGS-Leetown Science Center James D. Nichols, USGS-Patuxent Wildlife Research Center Julien Martin, USGS-Patuxent Wildlife Research Center JohnA. Sweka, US Fish and wildlife Service, Northeast Fishery Center James E. Lyons, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Birds Lawrence J. Niles, Conserve Wildlife Foundation of New Jersey Kevin Kalasz, Delaware Dept. of Natural Resources and Environmental Control Richard Wong, Delaware Dept. of Natural Resources and Environmental Control Jeffrey Brust, New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection Michelle Davis, Virginia Tech University, Dept. of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences Credits

Funding Provided by the National Fish & Wildlife Foundation Credits

Background

Why Delaware Bay?

Background

Note: No surveys , incomplete survey 2001 Background

2006: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service identifies the red knot as a candidate for Endangered Species Act protection. Background

NJ Prohibits Harvest Background

Spawner Survey: Background Storm event in 2008: “Mothers Day Nor’easter”

9-12 years for Horseshoe Crab to reach spawning age Background

SDM Structured Decision Making Workshop June 2007

SDM

1 st Joint Meeting of Crab & Shorebird Technical Committees

Problem Statement & Objectives

Maximize harvest of horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay with constraints that 1)harvest of female crabs is valued only when red knots exceed an abundance threshold or female horseshoe crabs exceed an abundance threshold. 2)Harvest of males is valued only when males do not limit horseshoe crab reproduction (conversely, horseshoe crab population growth rate will not increase with additional males in the population). Problem/Decision Statement

1) full moratorium on both sexes 2) 250,000 males and 0 females 3) 500,000 males and 0 females 4) 280,000 males and 140,000 females 5) 420,000 males and 210,000 females Alternatives

Models & Consequences Horseshoe Crab Competing Shorebird Models No Effect Fecundity Fecundity & Survival

Adaptive Stochastic Dynamic Programming

Optimization Harvest Option 3: 500,000 males and 0 females in the Delaware Bay Population

Adaptive Management Process ARM Decision Matrix Red Knot Monitoring Horseshoe Crab Monitoring

Adaptive Management Process ARM Decision Matrix Convert Regional to State Allocations NJ Allocation DE Allocation MD Allocation VA Allocation Red Knot Monitoring Horseshoe Crab Monitoring

Adaptive Management Process ARM Decision Matrix Convert Regional to State Allocations NJ Allocation DE Allocation MD Allocation VA Allocation Delaware Bay Shorebird & Horseshoe Crab Populations Red Knot Monitoring Horseshoe Crab Monitoring

Adaptive Management Process ARM Decision Matrix Convert Regional to State Allocations NJ Allocation DE Allocation MD Allocation VA Allocation Delaware Bay Shorebird & Horseshoe Crab Population Red Knot Monitoring Horseshoe Crab Monitoring

Adaptive Management Process ARM Decision Matrix Convert Regional to State Allocations NJ Allocation DE Allocation MD Allocation VA Allocation Delaware Bay Shorebird & Horseshoe Crab Population Red Knot Monitoring Horseshoe Crab Monitoring

Models Performance No Effect Fecundity & Survival Fecundity

Monitoring: How well do Models Perform? Two Key Monitoring Needs: 1) Horseshoe Crab Trawl Survey 2) Red Knot Marked-Unmarked Ratio

Questions? Gregory Breese Delaware Bay Estuary Project US Fish and Wildlife Service