US-Taiwan-China Relations in a New Era National Press Foundation October 14, Drew Thompson Director of China Studies and Starr Senior Fellow The Nixon Center Washington, DC Tel:  2009

Ma Ying-jeou’s election and a new era Cross-Strait Dynamics “One China” Beijing’s Hopes and Fears US relations with Taiwan and China Is a “Win-Win-Win” Partnership Possible? 2

A New Era Ma Ying-jeou’s election creates new opportunities Campaigned on a “modus vivendi” approach to cross-straits relations Three nos - “no unification, no independence, no use of force” Boost Cross-Strait Economic Ties Ma’s balancing act; improve ties with the PRC, maintain Taiwan’s de facto independence 3

“One China,” but whose? 60 years of ambiguity giving way to consensus building “1992 Consensus“ and “One China with Different Interpretations” A “special relationship” Three links, ECFA Confidence building measures to come 4

Beijing’s Hopes and Fears Beijing is pleased to see the KMT, worried about the future Granting concessions, providing international space Hu Jintao’s Four Points – –Never sway in adhering to the one-China principle –Never give up efforts to seek peaceful reunification –Never change the principle of placing hope in the Taiwan people –Never compromise in opposing “Taiwan independence” Hu stated, “as long as the Taiwan authorities acknowledge the “1992 Consensus,” the two sides can not only talk about the official conclusion of the state of hostility, the establishment of mutual military trust, the Taiwan region’s room for international operation compatible with its status…but also talk about all the issues that need to be resolved in the process of realizing peaceful reunification.” 5

The Elephant in the Cross- Strait Room The Taiwan Relations Act - The US is more than an interested observer US-Taiwan Relations deteriorated under DPP, much improved since March 2008 Significant developments in US-Taiwan relations - arms sales, removal from IPR watch list US support for cross-Strait rapprochement 6

Is a “Win-Win-Win” Partnership Possible? US-Taiwan relations are improving; building on common values and interests Taiwan is not central to the US-China agenda, which is good Cross-Strait dialogue is progressing; military threat might be reducing Obama and Hu have tough issues on their plate, but Taiwan not on it 7