© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Projections over Mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 Using PRECIS 2.0 Changgui Wang, Richard Jones

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0 Background and Objectives PRECIS 2.0 model description Model configuration for providing regional climate projection over China Model evaluation - present and future climate over China from downscaled QUMP and Hadgem2-ES Conclusion Further development of the system - PRECIS 2.1

© Crown copyright Met Office Background and Objectives: GCMs provide information which is often too coarse for applications To provide the best possible regional information available for downstream applications: The full range of simulated climate changes from GCMs Information relevant to applications which accounts for this range of possible future climate changes, such as “Adaptation Climate Change in China” project Address major uncertainties in simulated broad-scale climate changes come from global climate models as well as emission scenarios Enable PRECIS system to downscale the Hadley Centre CMIP5 GCM (HadGEM2-ES) –PRECIS 2.0 Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0

© Crown copyright Met Office PRECIS 2.0 model description PRECIS 2.0 is an updated version of PRECIS RCM system, at heart of which is HadRM3P (Jones et al., 2004) It implements a hydrostatic version of the full primitive equations to representing atmospheric dynamics (Gordon et al., 2000) Land-surcace processes – MOSESII (Essery, 2003) Sulphur cycle (Collins et al., 1997) Parameterisation of some physical processes: cloud, precip. Radiation, BL and gravity wave drag etc Finer resolution (50-25km) Driven at its boundaries by a GCM, the newly introduced GCM is HadGEM2-ES Sea surface status can be updated using SST/ICE from couple GCMs Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0

© Crown copyright Met Office Model configuration for providing regional climate over China Boundary conditions: Selected HadCM3 PPE members (SRES A1B) and HadGEM-ES RCP4.5 (CMIP5) HadCM3 PPE (3.75x2.5): hydrostatic, developed from HadCM3 and used for quantifying uncertainty in model prediction (QUMP). The downscaling subset is Q0, Q1, Q8, Q10 and Q13 for East Asia region HadGEM2-ES (1.875x1.25) is a non-hydrostatic atmospheric dynamic model and was designed to provide simulations for CMIP5 Model domain Knowledge sharing – one of the ACCC project objectives Contribution to CORDEX CORDEX E. Asia domain is chosen for PRECIS 2.0 evaluation Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0

© Crown copyright Met Office Model configuration for providing regional climate over China Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0 RCM info: 50km (grid length=0.44) resolution model domain The RCM was setup to run 141 years initialised from 1959 towards 2099 Initial conditions from interpolated from GCM fields LBC: 6 hourly driving fields: winds (U.V), T, Q and surface pressure Surface conditions: sst/ice from Hadgem2-ES MOSEII land surface exchange scheme

© Crown copyright Met Office Model evaluation: China region characteristics: temperature difference in winter and summer and also change from region to region due to it size and landscape variability. To evaluate climate trend over China, the CORDEX region is divided into 6 sub- regions: NW, Tibet, CENTRAL-n, Central-S, NE and SW Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0

© Crown copyright Met Office Model evaluation: present temperature climate Spatial distribution of temperature compared with CRU data set. PRECIS 2.0 simulations agree with observed climate in capturing large scale patterns and provides more realistic detailed variations Distinct features exhibited: cold bias over Tibet, warm bias in SW and Central-S Downscaled HadGEM2-ES simulations agree with downscaled HadCM3 PPE and corrected cold bias appeared in the GCM, such as Central-S, Central-N, NW The formulation of HadRM3P in PRECIS 2.0 RCM plays a dominant role in determining surface climatology Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0

© Crown copyright Met Office Model evaluation: present precipitation climate Spatial distribution of precipitation compared with CRU data set. PRECIS 2.0 simulations agree with observed climate in capturing large scale patterns and provides more realistic detailed variations but featuring grid- scale “noise” Distinct features: wet bias presented in HadCM3 is reduced except Central-S where seems to be enhanced; dry area seemed to simulated more realistically in PRECIS 2.0, but SW tend to show dry bias Downscaled HadGEM2-ES seems to correct the HadGEM2-ES’s wet biases over Southern, south- eastern China, northern region towards Central part for all seasons but it introduced much drier climate over Eastern and NE China during JJA The formulation of HadRM3P in PRECIS 2.0 RCM plays a dominant role in determining surface climatology Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0

© Crown copyright Met Office Model evaluation: annual cycle of T and Precip (baseline) Downscaled HadCM3 PPE: T: Consistent with GCMs and CRU with improvement but cold bias over Tibet and enhanced warm bias over North and N-W Precip: downscaled results generally follow the GCMs with improvement, showing wet bias corrections in most regiona. Exceptions include Tibetm, E, SW during djf and C-S in mam Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0

© Crown copyright Met Office Downscaled HadGEM2-ES: T: Consistent with GCMs and CRU with improvement but cold bias over Tibet and enhanced warm bias over C-S Precip: downscaled results generally follow the GCMs with improvement, showing wet bias corrections in most region. Exceptions include Tibetm, E, SW during djf and C-S in mam Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0 Model evaluation: annual cycle of T and Precip (baseline) Grey bar –CRU; dash lines – HadGEM2-ES GCM; dotted lines- downclaed HadCM3 PPE mean; solid lines – downscaled HadGEM2-ES

© Crown copyright Met Office T: overall 0.26/decade for present day, noticeable changing points in 1960,1970 and By the end of 21 st Century, projected T is in order of o C in South and 4-6 in North Precip: a clear interannual change, generally shows either increase or decrease before The decreasing trend in 1960s is well simulated. Future projections also show large variations but with clear long-term increasing trend Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0 Model evaluation: Temporal trend and future projections

© Crown copyright Met Office Precip: increasing trend in North show potential to improve drought condition but variability's continue in the future implies that the droughts are likely to persist there Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0 Model evaluation: Temporal trend and future projections

© Crown copyright Met Office This talk demonstrates the capability of new version of PRECIS 2.0 for downscaling one of CMIP5 GCM (HdGEM2-ES) It includes HdCM3 PPE thus provide uncertainty in these projections and information relevant to assessing climate change impacts and adaptations over China. Both downscaled HdCM3 PPE and HadGEM2-ES are generally captured broad spatial, annual variations observed DownscaledHadCM3 PPE and HadGEM2-ES simulate a wide range of plausible future climate changes for precipitation, where significant seasonal and geographical variability is seen in the spatial and temporal distribution a wider range of possible future conditions related to rainfall is simulated, e.g. allowing for both continued drought conditions and enhanced flood risk Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0 Conclusions & Further work

© Crown copyright Met Office The lower temperature trends in the downscaled HadGEM2-ES projections than in the corresponding HadCM3 PPE driven projections is consistent with the lower greenhouse gas emissions/concentrations present in the RCP4.5 compared to the SRES A1B scenario. The results provide some indication of the range of expected temperatures given uncertainty in both the modelling and future emissions The further work on PRECIS will enable more CMIP5 GCM members to be downscaled in the system, such as CNRM, GFDL, CSIRO and IPSL etc A new release PRECIS 2.1 should be expected in next year. Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0 Conclusions & Further work

© Crown copyright Met Office Questions? A scientific paper entitled “Climate projection over mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 using PRECIS 2.0 (Changgui Wang, Richard Jones et al.) ” has been submitted to IJC and is currently under peer review