The Way Tanzanians Perceive the Performance of the parliament and the president of the United Republic of Tanzania and Trust of All Three Branches of Government Results from the Afrobarometer Round 5 Survey in Tanzania Stephen Mwombela 15 th October 2013

What is the Afrobarometer? The Afrobarometer (AB) is a comparative series of public opinion surveys that measure public attitudes toward democracy, governance, the economy, leadership, identity, and other related issues. The AB is an independent, non-partisan, African-based network of researchers. The first round of surveys took place in in 12 countries. The Network is now conducting “Round 5” surveys in up to 35 countries during Purpose: To measure popular perspectives on the social, political, and economic environments in each country where it is implemented and across Africa. Goal: To give the public a voice in policy making processes by providing high-quality public opinion data to policy-makers, policy advocates and civil society organizations, academics, media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans. 2

Country Coverage:  Round 1, , 12 countries Southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe West Africa: Ghana, Mali, Nigeria East Africa: Tanzania, Uganda  Round 2, , 16 countries Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal  Round 3, , 18 countries Benin, Madagascar  Round 4, , 20 countries Burkina Faso, Liberia  Round 5, , up to 35 countries Algeria, Burundi, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritius, Morocco, Niger, Togo, Tunisia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Swaziland 3

Country Coverage Round 5:

Who is Afrobarometer  A Pan-African Network of survey researchers and analysts. In each country there is a National Partner responsible for survey implementation. In Tanzania, the National Partner is REPOA. Four Core Partners provide technical assistance and Network management: o Center for Democratic Development (CDD), Ghana o Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR), South Africa o Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi, Kenya o Institute for Empirical Research in Political Economy (IREEP), Benin Two Support Units for capacity building and quality assurance o Michigan State University o University of Cape Town Round 5 Core Funders include DFID, SIDA, USAID and Mo Ibrahim Foundation 5

Survey Methodology Nationally representative sample of adult citizens – all respondents are randomly selected – every adult citizen has an equal and known chance of being selected Face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice Standard survey instrument across all countries for comparability The survey interviewed 2400 adult Tanzanians; A sample of this size yields results with a margin of error of +/-2% at a 95% confidence level. Field work for Round 5 in Tanzania was conducted between May and June Afrobarometer’s work in Tanzania is coordinated by REPOA and field work was carried out by REPOA. 6

Survey Demographics WeightedUn-weighted Mean Age Gender Male50.1 Female49.9 Location Urban Rural Education None7.98 Primary Secondary Higher Region / Province Regions Arusha, Dar es Salaam, Dodoma, Kilimanjaro, Iringa, Kagera, Rukwa, Manyara, Mwanza, Shinyanga, Tabora, Morogoro, Mbeya, Pwani (Coast), Tanga, Lindi, Mtwara, Kigoma, Singida, Ruvuma, Mara, Kaskazini Unguja, Kusini Unguja, Mjini Magharibi, Kaskazini Pemba and Kusini Pemba 7

PERCEPTIONS OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE PARLIAMENT Afrobarometer Round 5 Tanzania Survey Results

Key Findings Majority of Tanzanians (61%) approve of the job that the parliament is doing Disapproval of parliament’s performance increased by 5% points to 37% (in 2012) from 32% (in 2008) among rural Tanzanians Disapproval of parliament’s performance increased by 5% points from 33% (in 2008) to 38% (in 2012) among Mainland Tanzanians More educated Tanzanians tended to disapprove the parliament more than Tanzanians who were less educated Parliament’s approval dropped by 8% points among Tanzanians with a post-secondary education and by 10% points among Tanzanians with a secondary education. 9

Performance of parliament Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the parliament has performed its job over the past twelve months, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

Performance of parliament by Rural and Urban Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the parliament has performed its job over the past twelve months, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say? 11

Performance of parliament by Mainland and Zanzibar Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the parliament has performed its job over the past twelve months, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say? 12

Performance of parliament by level of education 13 Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the parliament has performed its job over the past twelve months, or you haven't heard enough about them to say?

Who Tanzanians Think Should be Making Laws & Whether the President Should be Accountable to the Parliament Afrobarometer Round 5 Tanzania Survey Results

Key Findings Majority of Tanzanians (69%) think that the parliament should be (the branch of government) making laws That is a 11% points decline from 80% in 2008 Majority of Tanzanians (56%) think that the president should be accountable to the parliament This is a 10% points from 2008 when 66% of Tanzanians thought that the president should be accountable to the parliament There is a 14% points increase in the percentage of Tanzanians who think that the president should NOT be accountable to the parliament from 29% (in 2008) to 43% (in 2012) 15

Who should be making laws? Statement1: Members of parliament represent the people; therefore they should make laws for this country, even if the president does not agree. Statement2: Since the president represents all of us, he should pass laws without worrying about what parliament thinks.

Should the president be Accountable to the parliament? Statement1: The parliament should ensure that the president explains to it on a regular basis how his government spends the taxpayers’ money. Statement2: The president should be able to devote his full attention to developing the country rather than wasting time justifying his actions.

Perceptions towards the performance of the president Afrobarometer Round 5 Tanzania Survey Results

Key Findings The president’s approval (71%) is at the lowest level since the Afrobarometer surveys began in Tanzania This is a 19% points decline from the president’s approval in 2008 which was 90% Fewer mainland Tanzanians (71%) approve of the president’s performance than their Zanzibar counterparts (84%) The mainland approval is 19% points less than it was in 2008 which was 90% The president’s job approval rating declined by 40% points among Tanzanians with at least a post-secondary education 60% in 2012 versus about 100% in 2008

The Performance of the President Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the president has performed his job over the past twelve months, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say? 20

Performance of the President by Urban and Rural Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the president has performed his job over the past twelve months, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say? 21

Performance of the President by Mainland and Zanzibar Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the president has performed his job over the past twelve months, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

Performance of the President by Level of Education Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the president has performed his job over the past twelve months, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say? 23

Perceptions of Trust Towards all Three Branches of Government Afrobarometer Round 5 Tanzania Survey Results:

Key Findings Only the Judiciary did not experience an aggregate decline in trust among the 3 branches of government There was a 14% points decline in the trust of the president from 88% in 2008 to 74% in 2012 There was a 37% points decline in the trust of the president among Tanzanians with a post-secondary education 97% in 2008 to 60% in 2012 Trust in the parliament declined 19% points amongst Tanzanians with a post-secondary education from 90% in 2008 to 71% in 2012 Trust in the parliament declined by 12% points amongst Tanzanians with a secondary education from 82% in 2008 to 72% in

Tanzanians’ Trust of the President Q : How much do you trust the president, or you haven’t heard enough about him to say?

Tanzanians’ Trust of the Parliament Q : How much do you trust the parliament, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

Tanzanians’ Trust of the Judiciary Q : How much do you trust the Courts of Law, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

Trust of the President by Urban and Rural Q : How much do you trust the president, or you haven’t heard enough about him to say?

Trust of the president by Mainland and Zanzibar Q: How much do you trust the president, or you haven’t heard enough about him to say?

Trust of the president by Level of Education Q : How much do you trust the president, or you haven’t heard enough about him to say?

Trust of the Parliament by Urban and Rural Q : How much do you trust the parliament, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

Trust of the parliament by Mainland and Zanzibar Q : How much do you trust the parliament, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

Trust of the parliament by Level of Education Q : How much do you trust the parliament, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

Trust of the Judiciary by Urban and Rural Q : How much do you trust the Courts of Law, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

Trust of the Judiciary by Mainland and Zanzibar Q : How much do you trust the Courts of Law, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

Trust of the Judiciary by Level of Education Q : How much do you trust the Courts of Law, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

Conclusions Tanzanians have consistently approved of the parliament’s job performance Tanzanians have consistently had a higher job approval rating for the president than the parliament Tanzanians with secondary and post-secondary education tended to trust the president less than did Tanzanians with less education Tanzanians believe that parliament should be making laws and not the president Tanzanians believe that the president should be accountable to parliament and not vice versa 38

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