Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008 Lose-Lose Risks and Win-Win Options Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE Potsdam Institute,

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, Sep 2008 Lose-Lose Risks and Win-Win Options Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE Potsdam Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre

Globally averaged warming (ºC) B1A1TB2 A1BA2A1FI Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming

(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS) Cooling Effect of Aerosols

Dangerous Warming Commitment (Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)

(Schellnhuber 2008 PNAS) G8-Scenario and R&F‘s Invisible Hand

Integrated Assessment Consider 3 crucial aspects of sustainable climate protection measures: Mitigation Adaptation Development

Identify Ecological Assets Economic Sectors Social Systems highly sensitive to subset / totality of aspects Prioritize accordingly! Action Field Check

Development Lose Invest in Win-Win-Win Options Disencourage Lose-Lose-Lose Risks Adaptation Mitigation Win Stagnate LoseWinStagnate Lose Win Stagnate

LLL Examples Urbanization of coastal zones, mountain ranges, arid regions „Stradification“ of natural habitats Expansion of single-purpose fossil-fuel-based power stations WWW Examples Reduction of black carbon emissions through biomethane generated from degraded-land afforestation Solarthermal power generation + desalinization by energy towers Sustainable architecture

Vulnerable Coastal Megacity: Mumbai

The Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Nouakchott, Mauritania

u. a.

(1) Biodiv/Wilderness moderately protected (2) Cropland not expanded Erbrecht and Lucht, unpub. 17 % of current global primary energy demand 81 EJ/yr 557 Mha (not irrigated) Fractional Plantation Area (2nd Generation Bioenergy) Bioenergy Potential (no irrigation)

Energy Tower Principle

Climate-fit urban design invented 2000 years ago