To Gabon or Not to Gabon A Game on Geoengineering Research and Policy by Pablo Suarez, Ph. D.

(Caldeira & Wood 2008) We Should EXPECT CONFUSION…

A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable Info Audience: Passive Role ?

Game Time: Snap!

LET’ S PLA Y!

SNAP ! 0. Form Duos 1. Create deck of (imaginary) cards 2. Flip cards simultaneously and ‘say’ your card 3. If same card, say ‘Snap!’ ASAP 4.Observe your mind at work Designed by Paul Z. Jackson (Applied Improv Network)

Documenting your “Snap!” Cards Form Trios Create 3 cards that you’d want to add to deck Up to 3 words per card (‘Cat’, ‘Black Panther’, ‘Southern Right Whale ’) Select one card per table Most & Least ‘snapped’ cards: Eliminated Among remaining cards, Top & Bottom ‘snapping’ cards win

designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable Development)designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable Development) Decisions for the Decade How to make smart long-term decisions? ? All Participate! (...expect confusion...)

1. Simplification of reality No challenging the rules! 2.Decisions are individual But team consultations welcome 3.We will make 4 decades of investment decisions Each round is 10 years BASIC GAME RULES

Losers: Most red stones (humanitarian crises) Winning Trio/Country: Fewest crises (if tied: Most beans for prosperity) Winning Player/Province: Most ‘Dev’ Points … but eliminated if: Player with most crises is in your Table/Region Your Table is in the bottom half of ‘crises’ rank WINNERS & LOSERS

DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis by end of decade FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean DECADEDEVCRISIS TOTAL

DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis by end of decade FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean

Probability Distribution Function of Precipitation (based on the Historical Record) = Drought = Flood

DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought…

DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought… When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…

DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean Let’s protect against 1 drought… When a drought occurs, use a protection bean… If just 1 drought occurs in the decade… …you gain 9 Prosperity Points!

DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean But, what if we had a second drought? Not enough protection! …triggers humanitarian crisis …NO prosperity points!

Decade 2: Our CLIMATE is CHANGING… = Drought = Flood 1678

NEGOTIATING Climate Engineering Research By Half-Room, then Sector (.Edu.Gov.Org ) Your Goal: As much ‘Completed Research’ as possible in 3 minutes A ‘Completed Research’ is: a special post-it note with your Sector’s name (“.Edu” “.Gov” “.Org”) written on it with a special pencil placed on your Team’s table before the deadline Decade 3:

Applying Climate Research 3 ‘Top Research’ tables: Select one representative per trio Come to the front to examine climate projections (bags) You’ll have ~7 minutes to select representatives, study the research, disseminate knowledge, discuss plans, etc (before investment deadline) Decade 3 (cont.):

Deploying Geoengineering? The Global Climate may continue to change… Decade 4: If you have enough Research + Prosperity: You may be able to deploy Solar Radiation Management Come to the front to examine models and choices

NEW MODEL for climate change... The cone can land 3 ways: Normal

A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable Info Audience: Passive Role ?

A Model of the Gameplay Experience Info Consequences Decisions

Making ‘The Cone of Uncertainty’

(Caldeira & Wood 2008)

“Externalities”? Two science-based predictions 1. How will the most vulnerable help make geoengineering decisions? 2. Who will pay for humanitarian work in a geoengineered world?

1.Active learning (Peer-to-peer, “Aha!” moments UNFCCC ) 2.Serious, fun engagement (Emotions matter! RockFound ) 3.Data collection on decisions (In real time GEC ) 4.Optimization platform (illiteracy no problem) Gameplay beats Powerpoint

with University Students

with IPCC Lead Authors

at the White House

WHY GAMES for Actionable Info: HUH ? AHA!

Problem / Context Risks Options Decisions Actions Evaluation Engage Stakeholder s Omenn, 2001 Risk Management Framework

Concrete experiences (doing) Observation & Reflection (reviewing) Formation of abstract concepts (concluding / learning) Testing implications for new situations (planning / trying out) The Experiential Learning Cycle Kolb, 1984

T H A N K Y O U ! ! !

DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis by end of decade FLOOD PROTECTION Investment If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean DECADEDEVCRISES TOTAL

PlayerDEVCRISES TOTAL Player with most Crises Winning Trio/Country: Fewest crises (if tied: Most beans for prosperity) Winning Player/Province: Most ‘Dev’ … but eliminated if: Player with most crises is in your Table/Region Your Table is in the bottom half of ‘crises’ rank

Management of Regional Aid Pool: First to ask for a disaster-averting bean, gets it Unless: Majority delegates mgment to ‘Aid’ player or ‘Standard Operating Procedure’ is agreed Regional “Aid” Pool Invest in humanitarian system to help avert crises DECADE Starting Budget Crises Averted TOTAL