Where Are The Asbestos Claims Going? David Austern President, Claims Resolution Management Corporation and General Counsel, Manville Personal Injury Settlement.

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Presentation transcript:

Where Are The Asbestos Claims Going? David Austern President, Claims Resolution Management Corporation and General Counsel, Manville Personal Injury Settlement Trust

Asbestos Exposure

ARPC 2001

FUTURE CLAIMS FORECASTING BASED ON MEDICAL MODELS MAY BE MISLEADING History of the Manville Personal Injury Settlement Trust Future Claims Forecasting Employing Medical Models Year of Forecast Forecast , , , ,000 1,353,000 % Change N/A 79% 25% 32% 207%

Within 1-3 years: Example of 12 new trusts – Assets > $20B Note: Figures are likely amounts, based on announced settlements and/or plans. Revisions are certain; likely more will increase than will decrease. $ $ (000)

Future trusts: Example of likely backlogs of claims: Note: backlog estimates based on claims pending at bankruptcy filing date or where available, bar date figures.

Potential total claim flow from example of 15 new trusts Assumptions: Three trusts come on line the first year; four per year thereafter Backlog burn rate of up to 120k/year per trust Run rate after backlog burn at 1/7 of backlog