1 Analyzing Montana’s Indian Reservations’ Economies Susan Ockert Senior Research Economist, Census and Economic Information Center, Montana Department of Commerce

2 Outline Census Data What is an Economy? Measuring Reservation Economies Determining Potential Sources for Statistics

3 Population Numbers U.S. Census Bureau Every 10 years on April 1 Self-reported Residence within Census boundaries Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Three year average Service population Institutional population may not be in area Tribal Tribal members Annual

4 Why Census? Federal programs rely on census data for funding Indian Child Welfare Act Child and Family Services Programs Families by race and age distribution Title 6 – Grants to Indian Tribes Programs for Aging Age distribution by race Indian Community Development Block Grants Housing and economic opportunities for low and moderate income Income/poverty data Indian Employment Assistance Vocational training and employment opportunities Employment/Occupation by race

5 Census 2010 Pilot project in South Dakota Work directly with tribes Door-to-door visits by trained resident enumerators rather than mailed forms Publicity campaigns: census data confidential so can not be used against individual Use of hand-held electronic devices to identify exact location of house Visit all rural areas on reservation

6 Sanders Flathead Lake Missoula Glacier Pondera HillBlaine Phillips Valley Roosevelt Sheridan Daniels Big Horn Rosebud Yellowstone Chouteau BLACKFEET Population10,100 Unemployment22.6% Per Capita Income$9,751 Poverty30.0% Median Age26.5 BA+13.5% % American Indian84.2% FLATHEAD Population26,172 Unemployment7.9% Per Capita Income$14,503 Poverty15.8% Median Age37.4 BA+20.8% % American Indian26.7% ROCKY BOY’S Population2,676 Unemployment28.4% Per Capita Income$7,326 Poverty38.0% Median Age20.5 BA+11.8% % American Indian96.3% FORT BELKNAP Population2,959 Unemployment23% Per Capita Income$8,150 Poverty36.5% Median Age23.5 BA+12.5% % American Indian94.3% FORT PECK Population10,321 Unemployment17.5% Per Capita Income$10,691 Poverty30.1% Median Age30.2 BA+14.6% % American Indian61.9% NORTHERN CHEYENNE Population4,470 Unemployment19.5% Per Capita Income$7,736 Poverty39.3% Median Age22.7 BA+13.5% % American Indian90.1% CROW Population6,894 Unemployment17.1% Per Capita Income$9,440 Poverty26.6% Median Age27.6 BA+13.8% % American Indian74.9% SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, CENSUS 2000

7 ReservationTotal American Indian TribeNumber Blackfeet10,1108,146Blackfeet alone7,441 Crow6,8945,132Crow alone4.556 Flathead26,1726,339Salish alone Kootenai alone Salish and Kootenai 1, ,348 Fort Belknap2,9592,764Assiniboine alone Gros Ventres alone 1,068 1,276 Fort Peck10,3216,116Assiniboine alone Assiniboine Sioux alone Sioux alone 1, ,406 Northern Cheyenne4,4703,835Northern Cheyenne alone2,982 Rocky Boy’s2,6762,446Rocky Boy’s Chippewa Cree alone2130 Population by American Indian and by Tribe: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

8 ItemNumberPercent TOTAL56,068100% Urban23, % Metropolitan*9,53717% Rural32, % Not in a Place**14, % *Metropolitan Areas: Billings, Great Falls, Missoula **Concentrations of population, housing, and commercial structures that are identifiable by name but have no legal authority. American Indian Population: Urban vs Rural Urban = 1,000 people per square mile Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

9 What is an ‘economy’? Businesses Consumers Government Create Wealth Redistribute Wealth Jobs  Income Marketing Customer Service Accounting Management Public Finance Zoning/Land Use Public Works Public Safety Source: “Understanding Your Community’s Economic Base,” University of Missouri Extension, 67% of GDP

10 Current Reservation Environment Population Faster growth rate Younger median age Education Fewer with degrees Higher drop out rate Social Larger percent of population uses food stamps Higher pregnancy rate Higher alcohol treatment need

11 Current Reservation Economies Higher unemployment More poverty Lower per capita income Lower wages Lower housing values Smaller private sector

12 Types of Jobs 33% of jobs on the reservation are Government compared with 15% of jobs in the country as a whole 44% of jobs on the reservation are in the Private Sector compared with 80% of jobs in the nation Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, fedgazette, March 2006

13 Item Number of businesses – MT93,677100,421 Number of Businesses – AI1,9121,990 Growth Rate – MT (1997 – 2002)9% Growth Rate – AI (1997 – 2002)4% Population – MT878,706910,670 Population – AI54,72657,841 Firms/1,000 citizens – MT Firms/1,000 Indians – AI3534 Firms with employees – MT25,97428,258 Firms with employees – AI % of firms with employees/total firms - MT28% % of firms with employees/total firms – AI23%18% Sales per business – MT ($1,000)$402,321$445,543 Sales per business – AI ($1,000)$86,436$107,830 Business Environment NOTE: AI = American Indian Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Survey of Business Owners”

14 Industry% in Montana% on Reservations*Wages** Forestry0.8%9.3%$655 Construction14.1%16%$621 Manufacturing3.7%3.6%$680 Wholesale Trade4.3%3.6%$693 Retail Trade14.8%18.9%$398 Transportation & Warehousing3.5%2.1%$573 Information1.8%0.9%$673 Finance & Insurance5.5%1.5%$752 Real Estate and Rental4.6%3.0%$414 Professional Services9.1%6.6%$735 Admin Support and Waste Management4.1%3.9%$386 Health Care and Social Assistance9.1%3.3%$586 Arts, Recreation, Entertainment2.9%2.4%$267 Accommodations2.0%4.8%$280 Food Services7.6%7.8%$199 Other Consumer Services8.9%5.7%$376 Average Weekly Wages – State$535 INDUSTRY COMPARISONS Sources: See last page * Indian Owned Businesses Only ** MT Average Weekly Wages

15 NON-RESERVATION INDUSTRIES Industry% in Montana%UrbanWages Mining0.8%1.4%$1,040 Utilities0.6%2.9%$1,124 Construction14.1%38.6%$621 Manufacturing3.7%7.1%$680 Wholesale Trade4.3%2.9%$693 Retail Trade14.8%1.4%$398 Transportation & Warehousing3.5%1.4%$573 Finance & Insurance5.5%1.4%$752 Real Estate and Rental4.6%4.3%$414 Professional Services9.1%14.3%$735 Admin Support and Waste Management4.1%11.4%$386 Health Care and Social Assistance9.1%1.4%$586 Food Services7.6%1.4%$199 Other Consumer Services8.9%4.3%$376 Average Weekly Wages – State$535 Source: See last page * Indian Owned Businesses Only ** MT Average Weekly Wages

16 Non-Reservation Business Locations Billings: 30 Great Falls: 9 Helena: 10 Missoula: 5 Kalispell: 5Havre: 5 *Note: Indian Owned Businesses Only Source: See last page

17

18

19 UNEMPLOYMENT Statistics represent labor characteristics of the reservation, not the tribe. Unemployment rates produced by MT Department of Labor Labor Force definition: Civilian, non-institutional population 16 years and older The sum of Employment and Unemployment Employment definition: Did any work as paid employees or, Worked in their own business, profession, or farm or, Worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in a family owned enterprise Unemployment Rate definition: Equal to the number of Unemployed divided by number in the Labor Force Statistics represent labor characteristics of the tribe, not the reservation. Labor Force definition: Number of tribal members between 16 and 64 years old Available for work Not disabled or incarcerated Employment definition: Tribal members working for money Unemployment definition: Calculated by subtracting Employment from Labor Force MT Dept of Labor, Research and Analysis Bureaus Criteria: Bureau of Indian Affairs Criteria:

20 Productivity – Measure of Efficiency Average Output per Worker (IMPLAN) AreaOutput/worker Montana$86,309 Blackfeet$75,398 Crow$76,531 Flathead$82,532 Fort Belknap$56,367 Fort Peck$69,559 Northern Cheyenne$60,559 Rocky Boys$67,638 Glacier$71,790 Toole$77,466 Yellowstone$116,707 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, AreaOutput/worker Lewis & Clark$82,675 Cascade$83,367 Missoula$82,749 Gallatin$80,178 Flathead$85,341 Hill$69,383 Garfield$82,941 Richland$85,986 Rosebud$100,944 Blaine$59,319 Beaverhead$80,303

21 Compensation per Worker Average Salary per Worker (IMPLAN) AreaOutput/worker Montana$24,680 Blackfeet$20,894 Crow$21,697 Flathead$24,197 Fort Belknap$16,089 Fort Peck$17,129 Northern Cheyenne$27,005 Rocky Boys$21,908 Glacier$26,409 Toole$22,866 Yellowstone$28,867 Minnesota IMPLAN Group, AreaOutput/worker Lewis & Clark$30,370 Cascade$28,048 Missoula$25,324 Gallatin$23,500 Flathead$23,225 Hill$23,711 Garfield$10,775 Richland$21,350 Rosebud$35,437 Blaine$19,141 Beaverhead$21,834

22 Natural Resources ResourceTotal Timber Sales (2005) $ 4,242,299 Coal Royalties (2000) $ 3,402,663 Gas Royalties (2000)$ 610,000 Oil Royalties (2000) $ 2,550,800 Montana Reservations compared to U.S. Reservations 13% of all acres of coal 12% of all oil and gas leases 5% of all coal royalties/revenues 5% of oil royalties/revenues Source: Minerals Management Office, U.S. Geological Survey

23 Agriculture on the Reservation ItemTotal Non Native American Native American % of Total Farms2,5521, % Average Size (acres)3,1162,1795,196167% Market Value of Products$221,182,000$162,150,000$59,032,00027% Farm Expenses*$183,549,000$150,709,000$32,841,00018% Internet Access1,4061, % % of Farms with Internet55%57%49%N/A Market Value per Acre$52,116$59,636$11,36122% Expense per Acre$43,249$55,428$6,32015% Net Income per Acre$8,867$4,208$5,04157% * Due to confidential information, only 6 reservations used United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service,

24 Business – Where to Locate How much population is needed? Population: 5,584 On reservation BusinessTown PopulationMarket Population Grocery Store3291,250 General Merchandise3851,536 Pharmacy9572,939 Hardware Store9593,709 Automotive Parts1,0834, mile radius – One establishment Retail sales: Gauge of purchasing power Population: 3,946 Off reservation “Potential for Retail Trades in Rural Communities,” University of Missouri Extension, Montana Natural Resource Information System, Interactive Mapping and Database Applications,

25 Examples StoreActualPotential Automotive01 Grocery13 Pharmacy01 General*22 Hardware01 Total38 * Dollar stores, general stores, trading posts: retail new goods such as apparel, dry goods, house wares, etc. U.S. Census Bureau, Zip Code Business Patterns, 2003, Population: 5,584 On reservation Population: 3,946 Off reservation Number of Establishments StoreActualPotential Automotive21 Grocery23 Pharmacy11 General*12 Hardware11 Total78

26 Blackfeet ReservationMontana Industry Native American Non Indian Cut Bank Ave Wages Agriculture2817$477 Construction8018$621 Manufacturing1010$680 Retail231848$398 Professional Business Services191149$779 Health Care0020$761 Restaurants16 20$210 Consumer Services11421$376 PRIVATE BUSINESSES Source for businesses: Reference USA and individual visits. Source for wages: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, (QCEW), Montana Department of Labor

27 GOVERNMENT Government Blackfeet Reservation Cut Bank Ave Wages City/County827$519 State612$660 Tribal760$600 Federal355$953 TOTAL12544 Source for businesses: Reference USA and individual visits. Source for wages: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, (QCEW), Montana Department of Labor

28 Threshold Analysis Central Place Theory - Population needed to support retail and service businesses Simple Analysis: population and number of businesses Similar characteristics such as population & location Does not take into account economies of scale Square footage Number of doctors in one facility Grocery store Health care Financial Institutions

29 Grocery Stores LocationThresholdActual#Potential* On the Reservation4,48046 Browning12 Wolf Point12 Ronan22 Just off Reservation2,92355 Trade Center3, Metropolitan2, Statewide2, On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, Ronan Just Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, Glasgow Trade Center: Havre, Miles City, Glendive Metropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena # Number of Businesses*Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 2,725

30 Health Care: Doctors and Clinics LocationThresholdActual#Potential* On the Reservation 1, Browning 213 Wolf Point 310 Ronan 812 Just off Reservation Trade Center Metropolitan Statewide 5091,804 # Number of Businesses*Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 509 On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, Ronan Just Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, Glasgow Trade Center: Havre, Miles City, Glendive Metropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena

31 Financial Institutions LocationThresholdActual#Potential* On the Reservation 3, Browning 15 Wolf Point 24 Ronan 25 Just off Reservation 1, Trade Center 1, Metropolitan Statewide 1, # Number of Businesses*Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 1,227 On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, Ronan Just Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, Glasgow Trade Center: Havre, Miles City, Glendive Metropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena

32 Implications Reservations are underserved in these private sectors Just Off the Reservation serving own population and reservation Trade Centers and Metropolitans serve a much larger region

33 Location Quotient Determine if number of jobs are what a local economy should have to serve local needs Comparison of local employment to statewide for each industry 1 = serving more than local MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis has calculated LQ for each county in Montana (

34 Blackfeet Reservation IndustryLQComment Grocery Stores0.03Very under served Financial InstitutionNDNon-disclosable – one establishment Health CareNDNon-disclosable – one establishment IndustryLQComment Human Resource Programs 16.6Most over served of all Executive Government14.92 nd over served Can not provide Location Quotient for most businesses since there are so few of them

35 Implications Money is leaving the reservations to purchase retail goods and consumer services There is not an adequate supply of financial services on the reservations There is not an adequate supply of doctors, clinics, etc. on the reservations

36 Diversity of Economy Hachman Index measures diversity of economy – employment spread out among many different industries compared to benchmark Montana or United States More diversity reduces community’s vulnerability to economic downturns Closer to 1 mean more diversity MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis has calculated HI for each county in Montana (

37 Hachman Index Fort Peck Reservation=.24 Blackfeet Reservation =.14 County Hachman Indices Lowest(Stillwater)=.01 Median =.25 (McCone, Phillips, Toole) Highest=.66 (Gallatin, Missoula, Cascade)

38 Implications Reservation and county economies are not diverse ‘One company’ towns

39 Summary Private businesses create wealth  Private goods and services  Business decisions Governments redistribute wealth  Public goods and services  Government decisions

40 Department of Commerce Census and Economic Information Center American Indian Data  Census 2000  Economic Census 2002  Census Population Estimates by Race  Census of Agriculture  Office of Public Instruction  1990 Census  CEIC Presentations  CEIC Maps Department of Labor Workforce Services Division Research and Analysis Bureau  2006 Labor Day Report  MT Reservation Data Montana Indian Business Alliance (MIBA)  Indian Census Data  Indian Economic Data  Indian Business Data  Indian Business Directory  Reservation Maps NATIVE AMERICAN STATISTICS

41 STATE% AIAN# of AIAN LEGISLATORS% AIAN Oklahoma7.4%1715.2% Montana6.0%1011.1% New Mexico9.6%65.7% Alaska14.2%94.8% Washington1.4%53.4% Maine0.5%23.3% South Dakota8.4%42.8% Arizona4.7%22.2% Colorado0.9%31.2% North Dakota4.9%21.2% Wyoming1.9%11.0% North Carolina1.3%10.7% Legislative Representation Note: AIAN is American Indian Alaska Native

42 Contact Information Susan Ockert Montana Department of Commerce Census and Economic Information Center Senior Research Economist (406)

43 Industry Data:U.S. Census Bureau, “County Business Patterns” Reference USA, Small Business Administration, Minority Business Database, Montana Department of Transportation, Disadvantaged Business Enterprise Program Personal visits and interviews Montana Business Alliance members University of Montana American Indian Leadership Reservation Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; US Department of Interior, Bureau of Indian Affairs, 2003; MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research Analysis Bureau, 2005 Population: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, July 1, 2004 Estimates Unemployment: MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis Bureau, Labor Day Report 2005 Per Capita: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2003 Poverty: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates, 2002 Housing Value: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Median Age: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 % Food Stamps: MT Department Public Health and Human Services, Statistical Report June 2005 Pregnancies: MT Department of Public Health and Human Services, Trends in Montana Teen Pregnancies and Their Outcomes , November 2002 Alcohol treatment Need: MT Department of Public Health and Human Services, An Integrated Substance Abuse Treatment Needs Assessment for Montana, 2001 Drop Out: Office of Public Instruction, Montana High School Dropout Rates by Race/Ethnicity, School Year U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 American Indian and Alaska Native Summary File (AIANSF) – Sample Data, U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 2, Matrix PCT1. Sources: