2014 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, and Hurricanes

Introduction Today’s weather outlook is intended to offer a preliminary look at the summer temperature and precipitation potential. We’ll learn how this may impact the current drought in Texas. And we’ll see if the hurricane season can offer any assistance.

Objectives At the completion of this course of instruction you will: Identify the summer month, which has experienced above normal temperatures each of the past six years. Recognize which major city is most likely to experience above normal temperatures this coming summer, and which is most likely to experience below normal Be able to identify the historical year that is being applied as the primary historical match (analog) for the summer of Be able to identify the driest summer on record for Texas as a whole. Recognize the total combined number of tropical storms and hurricanes (named storms) expected in the Gulf of Mexico in 2014.

Precipitation: Winter Precipitation: Winter Precipitation: Spring 2011 Precipitation: Spring 2014 Repeat of 2011?

Temperature: Spring 2011 Temperature: Spring 2014 Repeat of 2011?

Summer ° Summer ° Repeat of 2011? Same difference as 2 nd to 41 st (1980 to 1897) 2.4 degree difference

Number of 100-degree Days for Select Texas Cities -- Wichita Falls: 100 days (1980) -- San Angelo: 98 days (60 days in 1969) -- Waco: 87 days (63 days in 1980) -- Houston: 46 days (32 in 1980) -- Austin (Mabry): 90 days (69 days in 1925) -- Abilene: 80 days (46 days in 1934) -- Dallas: 71 days (69 days in 1980) ERCOT Record Peak: 68,305MW August 3, 2011

Past Six Summers 2013: 24 th hottest, 81.1° 2012: 15 th hottest, 81.4° 2010: 13 th hottest, 81.6° 2009: 40 th hottest, 80.7° (POR 1895-current, Jun-Sep; all of Texas) 2011: 1 st hottest, 84.5° 2008: 82 th hottest, 79.6°

Past Six Summers 2013: 71 st driest, 11.44” 2012: 49 th driest, 10.28” 2010: 104 th driest, 13.98” 2009: 67 th driest, 11.14” (POR 1895-current, Jun-Sep; all of Texas) 2011: 1 st driest, 3.65” 2008: 80 th driest, 12.02”

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK Summer 2014

Building the Forecast 1.Winter temperature and precipitation patterns 2. Winter upper level steering currents 3. Winter sea surface temperature pattern 4.El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 5. PDO, AMO, PNA, WPO, EPO 6. Drought

Winter of th Coldest Winter on Record in Texas (1895-current) 10th Driest Winter on Record in Texas

ENSO

Past Six El Nino Events

Top Historical Matches

Summer Temperatures 2009 is being applied at the best historical match Latest set of historical years

Summer Temperatures

Of the major Texas cities, San Antonio is most likely to experience above normal temperatures this summer. Dallas and Houston have increasing potential for below normal temperatures this summer

Summer Temperatures By month

June Temperatures Top two analogs

June Temperatures June has recorded above normal temperatures every month since 2008 – the past six years consecutively. The primary historical match, 2009, suggests a hot June, but most of the other historical matches are much milder. This region (0 to +1) Could slip to 0 to -1.

July Temperatures

July shows greater potential for above normal temperatures than any other summer month.

August Temperatures

With the most recent updates, August has trended toward a significantly less hot (milder) look.

September Temperatures

September shows the greatest likelihood for below normal temperatures. Overall, the back half of the summer shows more below normal opportunities than the front half.

What Others Are Saying

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK Summer 2014

ENSO Past Six El Nino Events

Top Historical Matches

Summer Precipitation

Latest

Summer Precipitation

DROUGHT OUTLOOK Summer 2014

Drought

Lake Travis at 34.8% of capacity Colorado River Basin at 26.0% Texas Reservoirs at 64.7% Lake Travis

Drought

HURRICANE OUTLOOK Summer (and Fall) 2014

Hurricane Forecast Historical Averages Named Storms: 11.3 Hurricanes: 6.2 Major Hurricanes: 2.3

Hurricane Forecast

ENSO is a strong factor in determining the Hurricane season (number and intensities). At this point, ENSO is neutral and likely to remain neutral into early- summer. At some point, summer or fall, El Niño development is possible.

Hurricane Forecast Factors in Determining Numbers and Intensities ENSO Saharan Dust Dry Air Vertical Wind Shear Ocean Temperatures

Hurricane Forecast What happened last year?

Hurricane Forecast What happened last year? MDA/EarthSat: 19/10/4 NOAA: 13-19/7-11/3-6 Colorado State University: 18/9/4 The Weather Channel: 16/9/5 Weather Underground: 18/11/5 ERCOT: 10/5/2 Normal: 11/6/ Actual: 14/2/0 Prior three seasons each had 19 named storms. Prior three seasons have each had a La Nina influence.

Hurricane Forecast

Total Named Storms: 9 Total Hurricanes: 5 Major Hurricanes: 3 Named Storms in Gulf: 2-4 Named Storms in Western Gulf: 1-2 Hurricane in Gulf: 1-2 Major Hurricane in Gulf: 0-1 Named Storms with Texas Landfall: 0 or 1 Hurricanes with Texas Landfall: 0 or 1

Summary Preliminary forecast suggested a hotter than normal and drier than normal summer in Texas. However, recent trends indicate a possible less hot trend. There is more potential for dry extremes (especially West) than extreme heat. I don’t believe this summer will be any hotter than last summer. Increasing potential for a milder summer. Drought is likely to continue for portions of Texas, with greatest threat over the western half of the state. Could see deteriorating conditions South. Hurricane season will offer minimal opportunity for help.

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Questions ? ? ? ?

55 1.______ has recorded above normal temperatures every month since 2008 – the past six years consecutively. a)May b)June c)July d)August

56 2.Of the major cities, __________is most likely to experience above normal temperatures this summer. a)Dallas b)Austin c)San Antonio d)Houston

57 3.The historical year that is being applied as the primary historical match for the Summer 2014 is______? a)2008 b)2009 c)2010 d)2011

58 4.The driest summer on record as a whole for Texas was_______? a)2008 b)2009 c)2010 d)2011

59 5.The forecasted named storms in the Gulf of Mexico for 2014 are _______? a)0-1 b)2-4 c)5-6