HURRICANE EARL SUMMARY UPDATED SEPTEMBER 3, :00 AM

Hurricane Earl – 12:45 AM

HURRICANE EARL PROJECTION Earl will likely pass 50 to 100 miles southeast of Nantucket around midnight Friday night – Probably as a weakening Category 2 hurricane – Increased confidence in track and intensity Preparations for Earl should be complete by around noon Friday for south coast, Cape Cod, and islands Primary area of concern continues to be Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard

HURRICANE EARL WATCHES/WARNINGS Hurricane Warning: – Westport to Hull But primary concern is with Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket Tropical Storm Warning – New Haven, CT to Westport, MA Southeast Connecticut and Rhode Island coast including Block Island – Hull, MA to Merrimack River

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IMPACTS Marine High seas, high surf, and dangerous rip currents through Saturday – Along most ocean exposed beaches whether south or east facing – High surf and dangerous rip currents may be the greatest risk to life – Seas over open coastal waters 10 to 20 feet to left of track 20 to 30+ feet very near track 30 to 40+ feet to right of the track

HURRICANE EARL IMPACTS Wind Be prepared for: – Tropical Storm force winds with Hurricane force gusts Nantucket, Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard – with best chance for any sustained hurricane force winds across the outer Cape and Nantucket – Tropical Storm Force winds with only an outside chance of hurricane force gusts Buzzards Bay coast and Plymouth County coast – Tropical Storm Force winds (either sustained or in gusts) likely along the immediate Rhode Island coast and Block Island – Tropical Storm Force wind gusts likely along Massachusetts east coast and interior southeast Massachusetts Any further shift to the west of the track would shift stronger winds to W and NW

HURRICANE EARL IMPACTS Wind Timeline Arrival of Tropical Storm force winds – Mid to late afternoon (3 to 5 pm EDT) Peak of storm – First part of tonight (8 pm to 2 am EDT) Departure of Tropical Storm force winds – Late tonight (4 am to 8 am EDT) – However, W/NW winds gust to 30 knots Saturday

HURRICANE EARL IMPACTS Heavy Rain/Flooding 2-4 inches of rain with locally up to 6 inches Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, as well as southern Bristol and southern Plymouth Counties in southeast Massachusetts – Flash Flood Watch in effect for these areas – Heaviest rain 8 pm to midnight 1-3 inches for Rhode Island and rest of eastern Massachusetts – Urban poor drainage flooding most likely problem 1 inch or less near CT river valley

HURRICANE EARL IMPACTS Storm Surge Flooding Storm surge of 2 to 4 feet may cause minor flooding along vulnerable portions of the Nantucket, Chatham and Martha’s Vineyard shoreline during the Friday evening high tide Surge of around 2 feet may cause spotty minor coastal flooding Narragansett Bay. – In worst case scenario Fox Point Barrier water level could approach 6.5 to 7 feet MLLW for Friday afternoon high tide – but not all that likely – Splash over around the time of the Friday late afternoon high tide ocean exposed south coast due to large breakers Up to 2 feet of surge possible rest of Massachusetts east coast during Friday evening high tide with splash over possible Minor storm surge flooding possible for Wellfleet and Provincetown harbors after Earl passes Friday night – 3 to 6 foot surge possible 2 to 4 AM but between high tides

POST HURRICANE EARL Mostly Sunny and gusty Saturday – NW wind gusts 30 to 35 mph Swells, surf, and rip currents subsiding during Saturday but still dangerous No hazardous weather rest of Labor Day Weekend