Three Lectures on Tropical Cyclones Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology Spring School on Fluid Mechanics of Environmental Hazards.

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Presentation transcript:

Three Lectures on Tropical Cyclones Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology Spring School on Fluid Mechanics of Environmental Hazards

Lecture 1: Observed Characteristics

What is a Hurricane? Formal definition: A tropical cyclone with 1-min average winds at 10 m altitude in excess of 32 m/s (64 knots or 74 MPH) occurring over the North Atlantic or eastern North Pacific

The word Hurricane is derived from the Mayan word Huracan and the Taino and Carib word Hunraken, a terrible God of Evil, and brought to the West by Spanish explorers

Illustration from Travels in the West Indies, Theodor DeBry

Early historical encounters: The Mongol invasions of Japan in 1274 and 1281 Scene from the 13th century Mongol invasion scrolls, based on a narrative written by the Japanese warrior Takezaki Suenaga.

The View from Space

Airborne Radar: Horizontal Map 360 km (220 mi)

120 km 20 km (12 mi) (75 mi) Airborne Radar: Vertical Slice

Azimuthal wind

Temperature perturbation at constant altitude

Radial wind

Vertical velocity

Angular momentum per unit mass

Tracks of all tropical cyclones, Source: Wikipedia

Annual Cycle of Tropical Cyclones

Better Intensity Metric: The Power Dissipation Index A measure of the total frictional dissipation of kinetic energy in the hurricane boundary layer over the lifetime of the storm

Atlantic Storm Maximum Power Dissipation (Smoothed with a filter) Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Years included: Data Source: NOAA/TPC

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Storm Max Power Dissiaption (Smoothed with a filter) Scaled Temperature Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Years included: Data Sources: NOAA/TPC, UKMO/HADSST1

Socio-Economic Consequences of Hurricanes

Windstorms Account for Bulk of Insured Losses Worldwide

Source: Roger Pielke, Jr. Total U.S. Hurricane Damage by Decade, in U.S. Dollars

Population of Florida,

Source: Roger Pielke, Jr. Total Adjusted Damage by Decade, in U.S. Dollars

Total Number of Landfall Events, by Category,

U.S. Hurricane Damage, ,Adjusted for Inflation, Wealth, and Population

Infamous Tropical Cyclones

Galveston, 1900

East Pakistan, 1970

Hurricane Katrina, 2005