Update on Hurricane Modeling Scenarios in the Houston Region Using ADCIRC Clint Dawson and Jennifer Proft Casey Dietrich, Nishant Panda, Adnan Muhammad.

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Presentation transcript:

Update on Hurricane Modeling Scenarios in the Houston Region Using ADCIRC Clint Dawson and Jennifer Proft Casey Dietrich, Nishant Panda, Adnan Muhammad Antonia Sebastian, Phil Bedient SSPEED meeting Feb

Original landfall Ike Shifted Ike MightyIke (+15% windspeed ) SuperIke (+30% windspeed) SH146 Levees and Hartman Bridge Gate Hurricane Ike Scenarios

Continuous Galerkin model OWI winds for Ike Coupled to SWAN 10 day simulation No tidal forcing, no riverine forcing Runs in about 5 hours on Lonestar with 2048 cores ADCIRC Simulations

Bathymetry and Topography of Grid

Ike, Shifted Ike, MightyIke, SuperIke ADCIRC Scenarios Selected hurricane path and shifted landfall to 8 locations along coastline Modified OWI wind files to shift path of hurricane MightyIke: increase windspeed by %15 (high Category 3 at landfall) SuperIke: increase windspeed by %30 (Category 4 at landfall)

*Point 7 NEW LANDFALL (NL) (OL)

Shifted Ike: Original Landfall and New Landfall

Hurricane Ike: Original Landfall (max water surface elevation)

Hurricane Ike: New Landfall (max water surface elevation)

MightyIke (+15%): Original Landfall (max water surface elevation)

MightyIke (+15%): New Landfall (max water surface elevation)

SuperIke (+30%): Original Landfall (max water surface elevation)

SuperIke (+30%): New Landfall (max water surface elevation)

Hydrographs of Hurricane Ike scenarios showing characteristics at various points of concern

Some Additional Scenarios Tested Implementation of Oyster Reef Ike Dike Hartman Bridge Gate (Levee) Combined SH146 Levee and Hartman Bridge Levees

SH146 and Hartman Bridge Levees ADCIRC Simulations Modification of grid to incorporate a Weir Levee along this route at a 22’ height Hurricane Ike scenario MightyIke Shifted to New Landfall

Location of the SH146 Gate/Hartman Levees

Hurricane Ike: Original Landfall, with Levees

Ike trackStorm 089 Storm 136 Hurricane Ike: Original Landfall

Hurricane Ike: New Landfall, with Levees

Hurricane Ike: New Landfall

MightyIke (+15%): Original Landfall, with Levees

MightyIke (+15%): Original Landfall

MightyIke (+15%): New Landfall, with Levees

MightyIke (+15%): New Landfall

Run SH146/Hartman Levee grid with SuperIke Run SH146/Hartman Levee grid on synthetic storm tracks Run additional levee scenarios provided by SSPEED Current and future steps

Ike trackStorm 089 Storm 136Storm 076