2013 North Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast Ray Bell with thanks to Joanne Camp (met office)

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Presentation transcript:

2013 North Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast Ray Bell with thanks to Joanne Camp (met office)

TS has surface wind speeds > 17 m/s (39 mph) H > 33 m/s (74 mph)

3 consecutive years of 19 TS. Active hurricane period that began in 1995 averaged 15 TS, 8 H and 4 MH

© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office public forecast asonal/northatlantic2013 Slightly more active than normal Jo Camp

Method GloSEA5 (42 members) ECMWF System 4 (41 members) A Simple tracking algorithm (mean sea level pressure based). TS, H and ACE calibrated with previous years (hindcasts)

© Crown copyright Met Office 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Statistical forecasts: CSU and TSR predict an active hurricane season Dynamical forecasts: ECMWF predict near-normal hurricane season. Summary Table S S D D Jo Camp 9 NOAA D

NOAA Hurricane seasonal outlook

© Crown copyright Met Office ENSO forecast ECMWFGloSea5 Neutral conditions during ASO Jo Camp

CSU predict 72 % chance of MH landfall Statistical relation between seasons activity and landfalling in previous years. Land major hurricane landfall Hurricane Wilma 2005 (longest since 1900) NOAA – realtime doppler radar on Hurricane hunters which will be used in upgraded HWRF Intensity forecast

EPAC forecast below-normal hurricane season ( TS) 15 (5 – 8 H) 8 (1 – 4 MH) 4

CPAC forecast below-normal hurricane season (1 - 3 TS) 4-5

© Crown copyright Met Office Tropical Storms: E astern and Western North Pacific June-November 2013 Near-average numbers of tropical storms predicted in the Western and Eastern North Pacific Forecast skill low Western Pacific Eastern Pacific