Impact of Hurricanes on Nutrient Transport from Catchment to Coast: An Integrated Case Study of Mobile Bay and its Watershed Northern Gulf Coastal Hazards Collaboratory Alabama Water Resources Conference 5 September 2013

Hypothesis & Approach University of Alabama - Mississippi State University – University of South Alabama – University of Alabama Huntsville Louisiana State University Loosely coupled models – HSPF – WRTDS – EFDC – ADCIRC Data Transfer – Analysis – Metadata – Data Extraction Does the speed of a hurricane making landfall near Mobile Bay impact the nutrient distribution within the bay?

Seamless DEM, Land Use MODIS/GIRAS, Stream Network, Outlet Locations, River Discharge, Water Quality Concentration, Grids, Wind Models. Loose Couple Model HSPF – WRTDS – ADCIRC - HSPF Loose Couple Model HSPF – WRTDS – ADCIRC - HSPF Visualization with CERA Visualization with SULIS FUTURE Simulocean Pydap Hypothesis & Approach

Technical Aspects Use of Multiple Models Transferring Large Text Files Processes are in series, output of one model is the input of the next model Scale and time issues

HSPF – Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran Seamless DEM Land Use Datasets WinHSPF WRTDS – Weighted Regressions in Time Discharge and Season USGS - NWIS EPA - STORET Data Graber / WUDEXT (Simulobot --> Future) Data Graber / WUDEXT (Simulobot --> Future) WRTDS Concentrations V. Alarcon, J. Cartwright, W. McAnally Geosystems Research Institute and Northern Gulf Institute V. Alarcon, J. Cartwright, W. McAnally Geosystems Research Institute and Northern Gulf Institute A. Maestre, A. Ward, D. Williamson Civil Engineering and Biological Sciences A. Maestre, A. Ward, D. Williamson Civil Engineering and Biological Sciences Output: Water Discharge Output: Nutrient Fluxes

Track of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes that landed as Category 3+ Extreme Event Analysis A. Maestre, A. Ward, D. Williamson Civil Engineering and Biological Sciences A. Maestre, A. Ward, D. Williamson Civil Engineering and Biological Sciences Slow Moving Storms (25+ inches) SLOSH Model Hurricane Dennis (2005) SLOSH Model Hurricane Dennis (2005) Output: Slow / Fast Storms

ADCIRC - The ADvanced CIRCulation model HURRICANE DANNY 1997 ADCIRC C. Kaiser, K. Hu Center for Computation and Technology C. Kaiser, K. Hu Center for Computation and Technology Output: Water Elevation in the Gulf of Mexico HURRICANE IVAN 2004 Slow Hurricane Fast Hurricane

EFDC – Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code Water Discharge Gulf Water Elevation EFDC Output: Nutrient Distribution after a Slow and Fast Hurricane Nutrient Fluxes (Total Nitrogen) K. Park Marine Sciences K. Park Marine Sciences EFDC – Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code K. Park, A. Maestre, J. Cartwright

Information needed for EFDC simulation River discharge (Q R ) & TN load Open BC Wind IC

landfall at 01:00 on 09/16 near Gulf Shores, AL Ivan (2004) landfall at 04:00 on 07/19 near Fort Morgan, AL Danny (1997) No peaks in Q R and TN load associated with Danny Peaks in Q R and TN load associated with Ivan Water and Nutrient Discharge into Mobile Bay

Max wind = 32.3 m sec -1 Max wind = 32.7 m sec -1 Wind Fields input into EFDC

: During equatorial tide : Large surges : During tropic tide : Small surges Water level in Mobile Bay during Hurricane Events

Points to Consider in Evaluating Hypothesis - How to evaluate/interpret model and process (precipitation patterns, track, surge, etc…) interactions that control nutrient peak and distribution - How to take into account of large rainfall during Danny (>932 mm on Dauphin Island)? - Effect of interaction between tides and hurricane landfall time (e.g. during tropic vs. equatorial tide) Things to try: - Run the model for a relatively long time period : 9/8-9/28 in 2004 for Ivan (landfall on 9/16) : 7/11-7/31 in 1997 for Danny (landfall on 7/19) - Compare two hurricanes in terms of percentage of TN input - How to make a fair comparison when there was no large surges during Danny?

Outcomes & Future Goals Created solutions for integrated modeling of hazards across multiple cyber-platforms. Experiment -- Interaction and collaboration among all NGCHC universities. Implement results from EFDC in a visualization tool (i.e., Sulis or CERA) Start the transformation from “loose coupling” to “dynamic coupling” models Investigate use of the modeling system for further integrated watershed and bay research. Future proposals to NSF, NOAA, EPA, USACE – Interior flood/surge modeling – Water quality hazards from flooding – Addition of ecosystem models to suite