Damage Normalization and the Influence of Landfall Variation on Losses Kevin Sharp Master’s Geography – University of Colorado, 2009 Bachelor’s Geography – University of Tennessee, 2007 nasa.gov

“Direct impact” hurricane damage in the U.S. ( ) (adjusted for inflation to 2005 $) (Pielke Jr. et al., 2008)

Normalization by Pielke Jr. et al. (2008) (Pielke Jr. et al., 2008) D 2005 = Normalized damage in 2005 $ D y = damage in impact year I y = inflation adjustment RWPC y = real wealth per capita adjustment P 2005/y = population adjustment Normalized damage per year ( ) with 11-yr centered avg.

ICAT Damage Estimator

Master’s Research The Influence of Landfall Variation on Tropical Cyclone Losses in the US as Simulated by HAZUS NHC

HAZUS-MH (Vickery et al., 2006) Hazard Model Load Model Resistance Model Damage Model Loss Model Rita-L

Research Methods Top 10 storms by normalized damage – ( ) Storm parameters unchanged 30-mile track shift Hurricane eye diameter ≈ miles 36-mile NHC 12-hr forecast cone Damage estimate differences Wilma Wilma-L

Storm HAZUS direct damage estimate (billions $) Adjusted to 2009 normalized direct damage (billions $) Damage compared to original storm Rank in original normalized record Ivan %19 Ivan-L %10 Ivan-R %41 IvanIvan-L Results 2004

Storm HAZUS direct damage estimate (billions $) Adjusted to 2009 normalized direct damage (billions $) Damage compared to original storm Rank in original normalized record Katrina %3 Katrina-L %2 Katrina-R %16 Results Katrina 2005

Storm HAZUS direct damage estimate (billions $) Adjusted to 2009 normalized direct damage (billions $) Damage compared to original storm Rank in original normalized record Andrew %5 Andrew-L %10 Andrew-R %2 Results Andrew 1992

Storm HAZUS direct damage estimate (billions $) Adjusted to 2009 normalized direct damage (billions $) Damage compared to original storm Rank in original normalized record Ike %15 Ike-L %6 Ike-R %18 Results Ike 2008

Storm HAZUS direct damage estimate (billions $) Adjusted to 2009 normalized direct damage (billions $) Damage compared to original storm Rank in original normalized record Rita %31 Rita-L %28 Rita-R %32 Results Rita 2005

Conclusions Intensity Maximum Rate of dissipation Size Overall Wind field Speed Hurricane modification nasa.gov Hurricane Frances Further Steps Landfall location matters Landfall location very influential in long-term record Little skill in impact prediction

References FEMA. (2007). Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology - Hurricane Model - User Manual. Federal Emergency Management Agency. ICAT. (2009). ICAT -Damage Estimator. Retrieved June 26, 2009, from Pielke Jr., R. A., Gratz, J., Landsea, C. W., Collins, D., Saunders, M. A., & Musulin, R. (2008). Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: Natural Hazards Rev., 9(1), Vickery, P. J., Lin, J., Skerlj, P. F., Twisdale, J.,Lawrence A., & Huang, K. (2006). HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Methodology. I: Hurricane Hazard, Terrain, and Wind Load Modeling. Natural Hazards Review, 7(2), Vickery, P. J., Skerlj, P. F., Lin, J., Twisdale, J.,Lawrence A., Young, M. A., & Lavelle, F. M. (2006). HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Methodology. II: Damage and Loss Estimation. Natural Hazards Review, 7(2),