SOCIOECONOMIC TRENDS AND TRAJECTORIES OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SONORA, MEXICO

Demographic Changes in Southern AZ MaricopaPimaPinalYumaCochise Santa CruzArizona Population 2006 estimate3,768,123946,362271,059187,555127,75743,0806,166,318 Population, percent change, April 1, 2000 to July 1, %12.20%51.00%17.20%8.50%12.20%20.20% Population, 20003,072,149843,746179,727160,026117,75538,3815,130,632 Persons under 5 years old, percent, %7.00%6.60%9.00%7.10%9.40%7.80% Persons under 18 years old, percent, %24.10%24.50%29.30%25.20%31.70%26.40% Persons 65 years old and over, percent, %14.60%13.90%17.80%16.50%11.90%12.80% Female persons, percent, %51.10%47.70%50.30%50.50%52.70%50.00% White persons, percent, 2006 (a)88.70%88.80%86.90%93.00%90.20%97.20%87.30% Black persons, percent, 2006 (a)4.50%3.40%3.70%2.60%4.10%0.50%3.80% American Indian and Alaska Native persons, percent, 2006 (a)2.00%3.40%6.50%1.70%1.20%1.00%4.80% Asian persons, percent, 2006 (a)2.90%2.50%1.30%1.10%1.80%0.70%2.40% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, percent, 2006 (a)0.20% 0.10%0.20%0.30%0.10%0.20% Persons reporting two or more races, percent, %1.80%1.50%1.30%2.40%0.50%1.60% Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2006 (b)30.00%32.50%29.50%55.90%31.60%80.60%29.20% White persons not Hispanic, percent, %58.30%59.30%39.50%60.20%17.90%59.70% Living in same house in 1995 and 2000, pct 5 yrs old & over41.60%46.20%47.20%46.10%46.40%55.20%44.30% Foreign born persons, percent, %11.90%9.00%24.00%12.30%37.70%12.80% Source U.S. Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts. Data derived from Population Estimates, Census of Population and Housing,

Population Projections for Arizona Counties Maricopa Scale All other counties Scale

The Largest Municipios in Sonora and their Projected Growth Scale direction Hermosillo Scale direction All other municipios

2006 Population Projection

2010 Population Projection

2015 Population Projection

2020 Population Projection

2025 Population Projection

2030 Population Projection

Pop. Change%Pop. ChangeWATER SCENARIOS GPCD=218*GPCD=177**GPCD=150 Maricopa 2,443, % 532,690, ,505, ,530,100 Pinal 582, % 127,000, ,115,067 87,385,650 Pima 461, % 100,594,574 81,675,411 69,216,450 Yavapai 142,7403.5% 31,117,320 25,264,980 21,411,000 Mohave 135,6613.3% 29,574,098 24,011,997 20,349,150 Yuma 120,6592.9% 26,303,662 21,356,643 18,098,850 Navajo 52,9751.3% 11,548,550 9,376,575 7,946,250 Cochise 52,9361.3% 11,540,048 9,369,672 7,940,400 Coconino 41,0031.0% 8,938,654 7,257,531 6,150,450 Santa Cruz 25,7300.6% 5,609,140 4,554,210 3,859,500 Apache 18,7560.5% 4,088,808 3,319,812 2,813,400 Gila 14,7770.4% 3,221,386 2,615,529 2,216,550 Graham 8,6830.2% 1,892,894 1,536,891 1,302,450 La Paz 6,5850.2% 1,435,530 1,165, ,750 Greenlee 80.0% 1,744 1,416 1,200 Arizona 4,108, % 895,557, ,126, ,209,150 Additional Water Demand AZ 2030 * Phoenix 2005; **Tucson 2005; 150=smart growth +66% +53% +45% From 2006 base

Water Demand Sonora, MX 2030 PopChange%PopChangeWATER SCENARIOS GPCD=60*GPCD=100 Hermosillo % 20,320,560 33,867,600 Cajeme % (827,460) (1,379,100) Nogales % 5,970,060 9,950,100 San Luis Río Colorado % 1,267,800 2,113,000 Navojoa % 38,700 64,500 Guaymas % (425,580) (709,300) Huatabampo % (905,640) (1,509,400) Agua Prieta % 594, ,600 Caborca % (1,070,880) (1,784,800) Etchojoa % (720,900) (1,201,500) Empalme % (710,940) (1,184,900) Puerto Peñasco % 4,254,120 7,090,200 Sonora total % 25,694,220 42,823,700 * Estimate from Nogales (Walker and Pavlakovich-Kochi, 2002) +17.7% +29.6% From 2006 base

The importance of Southern AZ counties to Arizona Economy About 80% of Arizona’s employment is located in Maricopa and Pima counties

Changes in Industry Mix and Competitive Share in Southern AZ Information services Falling behind nationally But especially in Southern AZ Manufacturing is losing its importance in the country but Southern AZ continues to have a higher share Natural resources and mining increasing importance nationally but falling behind in the state

Employment changes by major industry in Southern AZ Counties

Employment Growth in Southern AZ Counties

Growth Rates in Southern AZ Counties Index 100=1990 employment

Employment Changes by Major Industry in Maricopa County

Employment Changes by Major Industry in Pima County