NCAMPO Meeting May 2012

2 SMZ’s MPO Areas-Aggregated Zones RPO Areas-Census Blocks

3 317 NMZs Total of 2894 NCSTM Zones

Links 162K Total 102K in NC Centroid Connectors-10,000

5 Population Household Population Households Group Quarters Ave HH Income Workers Military Group Quarters Population Household Population Households Group Quarters Ave HH Income Workers Military Group Quarters 2010 Census Data Woods & Poole Adjustments

NCSTM Employment 6 % of Employment Industrial14.22% High Industrial9.33% Retail13.04% High Retail10.83% Service22.68% Office13.88% Gov't6.93% Education7.11% Hospital1.97% Sources INFOUSA Woods & Poole Employment Security Commission

7 National Model Statewide Model Socio-Economic Data Trip Generation Destination Choice Mode Choice Trip Generation Trip Distribution Multi-class Assignment Disaggregation Trucks Trips Person Trips Flow Extraction EI/IE/ EE trips II trips Trip Extraction NHTS Long- Distance NHTS Add-on Sample NC Triangle truck survey FAF3 Disaggregation

8

Classification Four Household Sizes – 1,2,3,4+ Five Income ClassificationsClassifications < $20,000 $20,000-$35,000 $35,000-$55,000 $55,000-$80,000 >$80,000 Three Area Types- – Urban, Suburban, Rural Three North Carolina RegionsRegions 9

Five Trip Purposes Defined – Home-Based Work (by five income classes) – Home-Based Other – Home-Based Shop – Non-Home Based (places other than work) – Non-Home Based Work (from Work sites) 11

12 % Productions of Total - all purposes EstimatedObserved HBO39%40% HBS15%14% HBW17% NHB17% NHBW12%11% Estimate/Observed HBWTotalHBOHBSNHBAWNHBSUM Sum

13 NCSTM Productions and Attractions by MPO Actual Urban Model Values NCSTM vs Urban Model MPOProductionsHHsP's /HHProductionsP's/HHProd% Diff Asheville 1,541, ,577, , % Fayetteville 1,216, ,066, , % Goldsboro 292, , , % Greenville 480, , , % Hickory 1,045, NA Jacksonville 427, , , % Metrolina 7,063, ,496, , % Rocky Mount 298, , , % Triad 4,151, ,020, , % Triangle 6,002, ,003, % Wilmington 897, , , %

Region HBWHBOHBSNHBAWNHBSUM 1Eastern Piedmont Mountains

hbw1 = (1*[Retail Employees] *[High Retail Employees] *[Office Employees] *[Service Employees] *[Government Employees] *[Education Employees] *[Hospital Employees] *[Military Employees] *[Industrial Employees] *[High Industrial Employees]) * exp( *GeneralizedCost+ -0.1*Distance *Distance 2 )) +DistanceK

17 Survey Avg DistanceModel Avg DistanceCoincidence Index

18 Survey Avg DistanceModel Avg DistanceCoincidence Index

20 EI IE II EE

Data collected by IEM

Freight flows between 3,241 counties FAF 3 data County Employment Freight flows NCSTM Zones NC Zonal Employment Payload factors Truck trip O/D matrix 25 Empty-Truck Rate Truck trip O/D matrix with empty trucks

26 Distribution Center Truck Intermodal Facility Air/Rail/Water

27 Data collected by IEM Port of Morehead City Port of Wilmington RDU GSO CLT

2/1/2 012 NCSTM-TRC Meeting 29 TRUCKCLASSEMPLOYMENT TYPEGTR TRIP RATEQRFM TRIP RATEDIFFERENCE AUTOGov0.143 (474) % High Industrial0.381 (423) % Industrial0.105 (114) % Office0.168 (396) % Retail0.143 (757) % Service0.486 (998) % SUTGov0.105 (325) % High Industrial0.272 (304) % Industrial0.158 (148) % Office0.477 (187) % Retail0.112 (559) % Service0.379 (780) % MUTIndustrial0.272 (320) % Service0.411 (266) %

GTR Total Trucks QRFM Total Trucks

In urban regions, transit share is based on MPO/Regional models. Activity density is used to allocate transit share to NCSTM zones Between urban areas, r 3 logit models mode choice explicitly.

Fayetteville Raleigh Charlotte Winston- Salem Greensboro

Person Trip AutoTransit Drive- Alone HOV2HOV3HOV4+BusRailAir

Model applied for long-distance trips > 50 miles Transit access is assumed to be drive-access only (Who walks to the airport?) Variables that drive r 3 logit: AutoTransit Auto travel timeAuto access travel timeAuto egress travel time Auto travel distance Boarding time (incl. security check) Transit fare Auto operating costsTransit travel time Auto egress timeNumber of transfers Parking cost (currently set to 0) Deboarding time (incl. baggage claim)

5/3/ Wilmington 2Fay North 3Morehead City 4Raleigh East 595 Upper 695 Lower 7Outer Banks 8Central EW Upper 9Triad West 10Asheville East 11Charlotte North 12NC Upper 77/52 13Triad North 14Charlotte South 15Triad South

40 1Wilmington 2Fay North 3Morehead City 4Raleigh East 595 Upper 695 Lower 7Outer Banks 8Central EW Upper 9Triad West 10Asheville East 11Charlotte North 12NC Upper 77/52 13Triad North 14Charlotte South 15Triad South

6 Models Ohio Oregon Maryland

45 Calibration Adjustments Mid-June Future Year Coding End of summer

47 2/1/2 012 Can Run All Steps, Stages (groups of steps), or Individual Steps

48 2/1/2 012 “Reports” button for each step provides results from each step – such as district- district trips or VMT by County

49 2/1/2 012 District-District Home- Based Shopping Trips Productions and Attractions summed to MPO Model Areas

50 2/1/2 012 Vehicle-Miles Traveled, Vehicle-Hours Traveled, and other information by Selected Summary Levels COUNTYFAC_TYPEVMTVHTAve V/C 00112,105,50764, ,49918, ,558,16750, ,06923, , , ,1732, ,77920, ,21035, ,47110, , ,6477, ,6898, ,53625, ,1802, ,46730, ,46110, ,021,81330, , ,9114, ,28911, ,024,50648, ,9376,

51 2/1/2 012