Assessing Army Deployments to OEF/OIF Tim Bonds Dave Baiocchi September 2009

Deployments to OEF/OIF-2 Jul-09 Objective: Determine How Close Army Is To Providing Maximum Flow of Soldiers To OIF/OEF Approach: High-level assessment using data from OSD sources –Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) analyses for USD (P&R) Provides “snapshots” of troop deployments to OIF/OEF Assess Army Soldier deployments to date –Extend analyses to assess cumulative deployments and troop flows –How Army manages troop needs of OIF/OEF and other assigned missions and tasks Where data available, look to other Services as a benchmark –We will focus on “Active Duty” Soldiers Assess degree to which Army could provide more, considering: –Flow of Soldiers from recruits to veterans (to ending time in service) –Balance between OIF/OEF and other important missions and activities

Deployments to OEF/OIF-3 Jul-09 DMDC Presentation Provides “Snapshot” Of Current Force (Based on end strength as of December 31, 2008) * Based on all active duty regular Army, Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps members in the DMDC Active Duty End Strength Files and deployments in the CTS Deployment File What other insights can these data reveal about Army deployments? Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)

Deployments to OEF/OIF-4 Jul-09 Cumulative Total Army Deployment: Over 1 Million Troop-Years To OIF/OEF Note: Does Not Reflect Services’ Support to Other Missions and Activities Source: DMDC Contingency Tracking System Deployment File (Dec 2008) Cumulative Troop-Years

Deployments to OEF/OIF-5 Jul-09 Army Generating Largest Share Of DoD Active Duty OIF-OEF Troop Deployments … Cumulative Troop-Years Source: DMDC Contingency Tracking System Deployment File (Dec 2008) 19% 15% 52% of DoD Active Duty Deployments *Percentages have been rounded up Note: Does Not Reflect Services’ Support to Other Missions and Activities

Deployments to OEF/OIF-6 Jul-09 19% 15% … In Total And As A Percentage Of FY2008 DoD Active Duty Assigned Strength 24% 14% 23% 39% of DoD Active Duty Strength Cumulative Troop-Years 52% of DoD Active Duty Deployments Note: Does Not Reflect Services’ Support to Other Missions and Activities Source: DMDC Contingency Tracking System Deployment File (Dec 2008) *Percentages have been rounded up

Deployments to OEF/OIF-7 Jul-09 New Recruits In Training Ending Time Of Service Soldiers That Have Deployed to OIF/OEF Forces Assigned to Other Missions Growth Of Deployed Pool Depends Upon Flow Of Soldiers Into, Through, And Out Of Army Source: DMDC(2008) Theater Forces Medical Corps Air Defense National Intel

Deployments to OEF/OIF-8 Jul-09 New Recruits 117,000 21% of Active Duty Ending Time Of Service Soldiers That Have Deployed to OIF/OEF Forces Assigned to Other Missions Snapshot Of Army Troop Flows: CY2008 Source: DMDC(2008) and US Army HRC In Training 376,000 68% of Active Duty 64,000 11% of Active Duty

Deployments to OEF/OIF-9 Jul-09 Deployed Soldiers Have Highest Cumulative Deployment Times … (As Of June 2008) Months 61,000 Soldiers Months 167,000 Soldiers Months 135,000 Soldiers DMDC Data: June 2008

Deployments to OEF/OIF-10 Jul-09 … And Soldier Numbers And Cumulative Deployed Time Continues To Grow DMDC Data: December Months 79,000 Soldiers Months 174,000 Soldiers Months 122,000 Soldiers (As Of December 2008)

Deployments to OEF/OIF-11 Jul-09 Bulk Of Deployment Burden Falls On Mid-Grade Soldiers -- And Junior Soldiers Starting Out Junior Soldiers are on their way up the curve Army Warrants, E-5 to E-9, and O-3 and O-4 highest cumulative time – across all services and pay grades May take time to deploy pool of senior NCOs and Officers Army Marine Corps Navy Air Force Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)

Deployments to OEF/OIF-12 Jul-09 Army Is Also Relatively Efficient In Providing Forces (FY08 OSD Estimate) Source: Defense Manpower Requirements Report, FY2009, ODUSD(PI)(RQ) Troops (K) 71% 29% 55% 45% 68% 32% 56% 44%

Deployments to OEF/OIF-13 Jul-09 Who Are Soldiers That Have “Not Yet” Deployed? Source: DMDC (Dec 2008) Starting Point: DMDC numbers for “Active Duty” Army Deployments to OEF/OIF We will focus on “Not yet” category –Represents roughly 1/3 of Active Duty Force Not yet 32.7% (182,000) Once 33.5% (187,000) Twice 20.6% (115,000) Three Or More 13.3% (74,000)

Deployments to OEF/OIF-14 Jul-09 New Soldiers Make Up Majority of “Not Yet” Deployed Source: DMDC (Dec 2008) 117,000 Soldiers average 2 or less years in Army –87K Average 1 year –30K Average 2 years –Nearly all appear to be in IET, or preparing with unit for first deployment –Some actually deployed to Korea, Europe, etc. –Includes USMA cadets 64,000 Soldiers average 3 or more years –9000 of them deployed to Korea, Europe, etc –Less than 10% of force in CONUS and trained, but “not yet” deployed (55,000 Soldiers) 1 yrs 47.9% (87,000) 2 yrs 16.8% (30,400) 3 yrs 11.2% (20,300) 8+ yrs 12.6% (22,900) yrs 11.6% (21,000)

Deployments to OEF/OIF-15 Jul-09 Remaining Soldiers Supporting Other Missions Or Preparing To Deploy TRADOC 13,000 MTOE Units 25,000 TDA Units 17,000 New To Army (1 - 2 yrs) 117,000 Have Deployed 376,000 55,000 Soldiers Military Occupational Specialty CONUS Not Yet Deployed Medical/ Health 10,519 Intelligence/ Networks 5815 Air Defense1921 Recruiting2289 Exemplar MOSs = 20,544 Soldiers Source: DMDC (Dec 2008) Korea, Overseas 9,000

Deployments to OEF/OIF-16 Jul-09 May Take Time To Rotate Some Soldier Specialties Into Deploying Units Source: DMDC (Dec 2008) TRADOC 13,000 MTOE Units 25,000 TDA Units 17,000 New To Army (1 - 2 yrs) 117,000 Have Deployed 376,000 55,000 Soldiers Military Occupational Specialty CONUS Not Yet Deployed Deployed Peers Medical/ Health 10, Intelligence/ Networks Air Defense Recruiting2289N/A Exemplar MOSs 20,544 Soldiers

Deployments to OEF/OIF-17 Jul-09 Summary Our assessment of CY 2008 Army concludes that: –68% have deployed to OIF/OEF – have large cumulative deployed time –21% are new to Army – still training, integrating, or preparing to deploy –1.5% are deployed to other overseas locations –[At least] 3.5% are in jobs key to current global military operations Total: 94% [or more] appear to be where needed to support priority national missions and activities Therefore: Army is close to providing maximum Soldier flow –More detailed analysis required to assess remaining 6% Includes a diverse mix of USMA students, special, “rebalanced”, injured, other, etc At any given time, will always be some Soldiers who have not deployed YET –Large number of Soldiers entering Army each year need time to train –Experienced Soldiers needed to generate deploying forces –Some MOSs critical for other Army-assigned missions

Deployments to OEF/OIF-18 Jul-09 Soldiers Committed To OIF/OEF Source: DMDC Soldiers

Deployments to OEF/OIF-19 Jul-09 Source: DMDC Soldiers