1 AIARD Conference Colonel John Toolan Director, U.S. Marine Corps Command & Staff College

2 Mission Analysis COA Dev #1 LOO Program Refinement Troop to Task COA Dev #2 OPT WARGAME C-5 WARGAME OPT Integration and RefinementPrioritization and Sequencing

3 Center Of Gravity GOI LEGITIMACY IN AL ANBAR DESTABILIZATION Local / Provincial Governments Civil Services Functioning Judiciary Functioning Police Forces Functioning Local Economies Public Support Corrupt / Poor governments Lack of public services Crime AIF Kinetic Acts Tribal in-fighting Lack of Education Media Religion Local Population National NGOs Regional International

4 Destabilization Lack of Pub. Svc Tribal Influence Establish Rule of Law Develop Ownership in GOI Reduce Coalition Visibility/CAP Improve Public Services Develop Sustainable Employment Facilitate Education Build Legitimate gov’t w/ inter-ethnic representation Secure Borders Deny Sanctuary Improve QOL Counter AIF IO Messages w/ Truth Provide Social Safety Net Isolate Pop. fm Insurgents Enemy Operational COG Religion Will Indifference Geography Fear Violence Foreign Influence Poverty Lack of Educ. Anger & Shame Coalition Kinetic Act Rule of Law Hopelessness Corrupt/ Poor Govt AIF IO Msg. Culture. Targetable tasks Disrupting effects

5 Campaign Objectives Defeat AIF destabilization themes by strengthening Iraqi public understanding of coalition and GOI efforts. Build & transition ISF to secure borders, promote rule of law & neutralize AIF. Develop legitimate, inclusive and transparent government institutions that provide essential services, education. Improve quality of life that promotes public confidence and ownership in GOI. Create long term sustainable employment by developing economic capacity.

6 On Schedule: Current Efforts Sufficient Sensitive: Potential to escalate to Critical if not addressed Critical: Immediate Assistance required Al Anbar Campaign Objective Current Assessment Al Qaim- 200K Defeat AIF themes ISF Government Improve QOL Econ Capacity Rawah-25K Defeat AIF themes ISF Government Improve QOL Econ Capacity Al Rutbah-50K Defeat AIF themes ISF Government Improve QOL Econ Capacity An Nukhayb- 5K Defeat AIF themes ISF Government Improve QOL Econ Capacity Habbaniyah/ Khalidiyah-60K Defeat AIF themes ISF Government Improve QOL Econ Capacity Fallujah-200K Defeat AIF themes ISF Government Improve QOL Econ Capacity Ramadi-450K Defeat AIF themes ISF Government Improve QOL Econ Capacity Hit – 32K Defeat AIF themes ISF Government Improve QOL Econ Capacity Haditha – 31K Defeat AIF themes ISF Government Improve QOL Econ Capacity

7 AR RUTBAH AL QAIM AR RAMADI FALLUJAH AL ASAD BAGHDAD Campaign Overview Priority of Effort: Governance Economics Security 1 Campaign Objectives Strengthening Iraqi public understanding Build & transition ISF Develop legitimate, inclusive and transparent government institutions Improve quality of life Developing economic capacity

8 Haditha – 31K Gen Health Housing Public Works Food Education Security Governance Hit – 32K Gen Health Housing Public Works Food Education Security Governance Ramadi-450K Gen Health Housing Public Works Food Education Security Governance Rawah-25K Gen Health Housing Public Works Food Education Security Governance Fallujah-200K Gen Health Housing Public Works Food Education Security Governance Al Rutbah-50K Gen Health Housing Public Works Food Education Security Governance Al Qaim- 200K Gen Health Housing Public Works Food Education Security Governance Habaniyah/ Khalidiyah-60K Gen Health Housing Public Works Food Education Security Governance An Nukhayb- 5K Gen Health Housing Public Works Food Education Security Governance Self Reliant: Minimal to No Assistance Required Sensitive: Potential to escalate to Critical if not addressed Critical: Immediate Assistance required Situation Template

9 Jul 08-Jul 13Jul 06-Jul 08 C/JIATF-W Campaign Roadmap: Jul 2006 – Jul 2023 CAMPAIGN OBJECTIVES strengthen Iraqi public understanding Build & transition ISF Develop legitimate, inclusive and transparent government institutions Improve quality of life develop economic capacity OP AR RAMADI ECONOMIC PROGRAM OP WERV OP AR RUTBAH END STATE: A sustainable environment for Al Anbar’s citizens and resumption of full government control by legitimate Iraqi authority. Jul 13-Jul 23 Elections Legislation Administration & Services Training & Education Elections Rule of Law Governance Program

10 Jul 08-Jul 13Jul 06-Jul 08 C/JIATF-W Campaign Roadmap: Jul 2006 – Jul 2023 CAMPAIGN OBJECTIVES strengthen Iraqi public understanding Build & transition ISF Develop legitimate, inclusive and transparent government institutions Improve quality of life Develop economic capacity OP AR RAMADI ECONOMIC PROGRAM GOVERNANCE PROGRAM OP WERV OP AR RUTBAH END STATE: A sustainable environment for Al Anbar’s citizens and resumption of full government control by legitimate Iraqi authority. Jul 13-Jul 23 Agriculture Utilities and Infrastructure Natural Resources Housing Banking

11 MOE’s - GDP per Capita - Unemployment Rate Method: Objectives: 1. Expand Agriculture to support Iraqi needs with eventual capacity to export, “Food basket of Iraq”. 2. Develop sector business, based on Al Anbar’s natural resources (sulfur, phosphate, oil, natural gas, cement factories). 3. Establish local private banking, facilitating business and personal loan programs. Develop microfinance structure to support small business initiatives. 4. Expand and upgrade critical infrastructure (PWR, H20, sewage, telecom, road, rail) & utilities for Gov’t (Police, ISF, Health Care, Judicial etc.) 5. Expand & upgrade housing. Narrative: Expand Al-Anbar’s agricultural capabilities IOT increase self sufficiency and reduce unemployment. Simultaneously expanding public service, banking and small business opportunities. Supporting plans / Time line: See Timeline Slides 1& 2 PURPOSE: Increase Economic capacity in Al Anbar END STATE: Secure, Stable, Sustainable, Diversified, Economy capable of expanding under a stable central government Campaign Objective 5: Create long term sustainable employment by developing economic capacity.

12 Economic Capacity – 2yr Timeline

13 Economic Capacity 15 year plan

14 QUESTIONS?