Observed Tropical Expansion: Impact on the Hydrological and Energy Cycles New Investigator Research Summary Joel Norris (Lead PI, UC San Diego) Robert.

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Presentation transcript:

Observed Tropical Expansion: Impact on the Hydrological and Energy Cycles New Investigator Research Summary Joel Norris (Lead PI, UC San Diego) Robert Allen (Co-PI, UC Riverside) Mahesh Kovilakam (postdoc, UC Riverside) NEWS Science Team Meeting Goddard Space Flight Center May 1, 2013

Motivation/Background

CMIP3 Ensemble Mean Projections From Lu et al. (2007) Climate models project expansion of subtropical dry zone

CMIP3 vs. Observed Tropical Expansion from Johanson and Fu (2009) Observed tropical expansion greatly exceeds that for prescribed SST simulations (up to 1999) and CO 2 warming projections

Results So Far

CMIP5 vs. Observed Tropical Expansion Observed tropical expansion greatly exceeds that for CMIP5 coupled simulations of Prescribed SST simulations (up to 2009) projections come closest

CMIP5 vs. Observed SST Trends Observed SST trend pattern for resembles the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Ensemble mean CMIP5 coupled SST trend pattern for is much more spatially uniform

Tropical Expansion and PDO Jet latitude variations from prescribed SST runs resemble observed −PDO −PDO is a good predictor of variability in JET latitude Jet latitude trends are correlated with PDO trends in 20 th century coupled simulations

vs SST Trends and SST trends have opposite sign in many regions

Tropical Contraction and PDO Jet latitude variations from prescribed SST runs resemble observed −PDO −PDO is a good predictor of variability in JET latitude Jet latitude trends are correlated with PDO trends in 20 th century coupled simulations

vs PDO Index PDO trend has opposite sign in from in 20 th century coupled simulations with all forcings Trend sign reversal also occurs in 20 th century simulations with only aerosol forcings

SST Response to Aerosol Radiative Forcing Simulated surface temperature trends in response to historical aerosol radiative heating

Summary Subtropical dry zone expanded during Greatly underestimated by coupled model ensemble mean Strong association between expansion and −PDO Could have substantial natural variability component Could have substantial contribution from aerosol radiative forcing Implications for NEWS Does regional aerosol radiative forcing drive circulation, SST, and precipitation patterns on decadal time scales? Can we project aerosol radiative forcing changes in coming decades and likely circulation, SST, and precipitation response?