Rift Valley Fever Monitoring Update November 27, 2006 Assaf Anyamba*, Jennifer Small*, Kenneth J. Linthicum §, Jean-Paul Chretien †, Compton J. Tucker*

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
1/13/2003IRI Presentation E D C F E W S An empirical study of the links between NDVI and atmospheric variables in Africa with applications to forecasting.
Advertisements

DEPARTAMENTO DE METEOROLOGIA UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE ALAGOAS REGIONAL MEETING ON CLIPS AND AGROMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS FOR THE.
THE USE OF REMOTE SENSING DATA/INFORMATION AS PROXY OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN THE GREATER HORN OF AFRICA Gilbert O Ouma IGAD Climate Applications and Prediction.
Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel February 24, 2012 Brad Rippey Agricultural Meteorologist USDA/OCE/WAOB Washington, D.C.
Enhancing the Scale and Relevance of Seasonal Climate Forecasts - Advancing knowledge of scales Space scales Weather within climate Methods for information.
+ Environmental Factors and Risk Areas of West Nile Virus in Southern California, 2007–2009 Hua Liu & Qihao Weng Ivonna Reda.
Evans Maru Magdalene Wanjiku Noah Adam Purity Mueni Adrajow Admasu.
Remotely-sensed Enviroclimatic patterns and Ebola outbreaks: linkages and early warning Dan Slayback Jorge Pinzon Compton Tucker 8 September 2004 Biospheric.
UCSB Climate Research Meeting Dept. of Geography ICESS- UCSB October 16, 2009 Earth Space Research Group Climate Variations and Impacts: Monthly Discussion.
Climate recap and outlook Philip Mote, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Boise, ID October 17,
2009 global climate: A tale of five timeseries Global mean temperature El Ni ñ o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation Annular modes.
Inland Northwest Climate Recap and Seasonal Outlook Dr. John Abatzoglou Department of Geography University of Idaho 10 th Annual Climate.
Climate Recap and Outlook for Winter Eric Salathé JISAO Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.
Excerpts of the AAAS Fiscal Year 2009 Appropriations Summary ( September 2008 summary: Congress has made little progress on the federal.
Jacksonville, FL 9 – 12th February 2004 Triennial GIS Symposium Mapping of potential habitats for vectors of African Tick Bite Fever (ATBF) in the Maasai.
Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter Nate Mantua Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.
Climate Review for WY 2004 and Outlook for WY 2005 Philip Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Annual Fall Forecast Meeting October 26,
Climatic Perspective on the fall/winter of Nathan Mantua, Ph.D. University of Washington Climate Impacts Group
UCSB Climate Research Meeting Dept. of Geography ICESS- UCSB October 16, 2009 Earth Space Research Group Climate Variations and Impacts: Monthly Discussion.
Climate Change, GIS, and Vector- Borne Disease Jessica Beckham February 10, 2011.
Climate recap and outlook Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Climate Impacts Group Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.
CONTENTS *Tropics -ENSO [Neutral] -MJO *Extra-tropics *Verification of ASO & October 2014 Outlooks *Drought *Selected Weather/Climate Events *Outlooks.
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, October 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 October 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update –
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 July 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.
News 8 Girl Scout Day November 1, 2008 “The El Nino Phenomenon” News 8 Austin Weather Burton Fitzsimmons.
Climate and Food Security Thank you to the Yaqui Valley and Indonesian Food Security Teams at Stanford 1.Seasonal Climate Forecasts 2.Natural cycles of.
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa Dec 2012 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.
NOAA Climate Obs 4th Annual Review Silver Spring, MD May 10-12, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center 1.SSTs for Daily SST OI NOAA’s National.
Impacts of La Niña (and NAO) on Washington DC Winters Winter Media Workshop 12/9/2011 Jared Klein LWX Climate Program Leader.
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Vernon E. Kousky and R. Wayne Higgins Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 2004.
SIO 210: ENSO conclusion Dec. 2, 2004 Interannual variability (end of this lecture + next) –Tropical Pacific: El Nino/Southern Oscillation –Southern Ocean.
APPLICATION OF REMOTE SENSING FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF DROUGHT IN SOMALIA – Case Study in Puntland Ambrose Oroda Ronald Vargas, Simon Oduori and Christian.
IPCC WGII Third Assessment Report – Regional Issues with Emphasis on Developing Countries of Africa Paul V. Desanker (Malawi) Coordinating Lead Author.
Chapter 1.2 Climate and Vegetation
Entomology and Vectorborne Diseases, USAMRU-K Jason Richardson Entomology & Vectorborne Diseases U.S. Army Medical Research Unit-Kenya Rift Valley fever.
“Where America’s Climate, Weather Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Michelle L’Heureux NOAA Climate Prediction Center December 3, 2009 El Niño: What.
Drought in the West: Short-Range Forecasts to Assist with Local and Regional Planning Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC Association of Bay Area Governments: Water/Land.
ENSO Prediction and Policy Why Predict ENSO? How do we predict ENSO? Why is it possible ? What information do predictions offer? What to do with this information?
Jay Grymes WAFB Chief Meteorologist LSU AgCenter Climatologist LSU AgOutlook January 2010 Changing Climate... Linkages to LA Agriculture.
The La Niña Influence on Central Alabama Rainfall Patterns.
PAGASA-DOST Presscon - 04 October 2010 Amihan Conference Room.
Earth System Models NASA TOPS -- Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (predictive capabilities of over 30 variables describing land surface conditions.
The First Filling of Merowe Dam: A Potentially Important Risk of Amplification of the Rift Valley Fever Virus Disease in Sudan.
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, Jan 2013 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.
Dan Cayan Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego USGS Water Resources Discipline much support from David Pierce, Mary Tyree, and other colleagues.
Travis D. Miller Department of Soil and Crop Sciences Texas AgriLife Extension Service The 2011 drought situation: July, 2011 Travis D. Miller Professor,
Dec 15, 2004 AGUMolly E. Brown, PhD1 Inter-Sensor Validation of NDVI time series from AVHRR, SPOT-Vegetation, SeaWIFS, MODIS, and LandSAT ETM+ Molly E.
AAG 2010 Washington DC Savanna Vegetation Changes as Influenced by Climate in East Africa Gopal Alagarswamy, Chuan Qin, Jiaguo Qi, Jeff Andresen, Jennifer.
Assessing the Phenological Suitability of Global Landsat Data Sets for Forest Change Analysis The Global Land Cover Facility What does.
Weather Outlook El Nino effects: Jet Stream shifts southward and across southern California Alex Tardy – NWS San Diego – November 16, 2015.
Winter/Spring Outlook Derrick Weitlich National Weather Service Melbourne Central Florida Prescribed Fire Council Annual Meeting September 25,
Africa Physical Geography. Land and Water Where is Africa located? What are Africa’s most important landforms?
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, December 2015 Initial Conditions Issued 14 December 2015 Forecast Background – ENSO update.
Using the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) System Johnna Infanti Advisor: Ben Kirtman.
Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Influences on Failed Consecutive Rainy Seasons over Eastern Africa** Andy Hoell 1 and Chris Funk 1,2 Contact:
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, January 2016 Initial Conditions Issued 14 January 2016 Forecast Background – ENSO update –
Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 5, 2005.
Oceans & El Nino Ocean-atmosphere coupling matters.
1 Dr Paula Cáceres Head, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department 13th Conference of the OIE Regional Commission for the Middle East Kaslik,
1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 13,
What is El Nino?. El Nino is a weather cycle – a naturally occurring weather episode that sees the warm waters of the central Pacific expand eastwards.
Developing the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI): Monitoring Vegetation Stress from a Local to National Scale Brian Wardlow National Drought Mitigation.
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to Climate Change Impacts November 2014, Nairobi Kenya WHY THE WORKSHOP.
Introduction  Two breeding seasons for Desert Locust in Yemen  Winter breeding season during Oct – April at coastal plains of Red Sea and Aden Gulf.
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to Climate Change Impacts November 2014, Nairobi Kenya Impacts of ENSO.
Global Variations of Precipitation, Floods and Landslides Robert Adler Guojun Gu Huan Wu University of Maryland Collaborators: Dalia Kirschbaum (Goddard),
Climate Outlook (MAY – SEPTEMBER 2017) JOSEPH BASCONCILLO
An Introduction to VegDRI
The Climate System TOPICS ENSO Impacts Seasonal Climate Forecasts
University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System
Presentation transcript:

Rift Valley Fever Monitoring Update November 27, 2006 Assaf Anyamba*, Jennifer Small*, Kenneth J. Linthicum §, Jean-Paul Chretien †, Compton J. Tucker* * NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Code 614.4, GIMMS Group, Greenbelt, MD †Department of Defense, Global emerging Infections System, Division of Preventive Medicine, Walther Reed Army Institute of Research, Washington, DC §Center for Medical, Agricultural & Veterinary Entomology, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Gainesville, Florida, FEWS Science Meeting November 27, 2006

Zoonotic disease first described in Kenya by Daubney et al in a fatal epizootic of sheep on a farm north of Lake Naivasha RVF activity follows periods of persistent, widespread and above normal rainfall flooding of “dambos” (grassland depressions) – mosquito breeding habitats RVF has ability to establish itself in new ecological habitats – Epizootic in Egypt in , Yemen & Saudi Arabia 2000 Frequency of outbreaks – epizootics persist for 1-3 years, and recur at 5-15 year intervals in dry, bushed and wooded grasslands Historical Perspective: East Africa

Coastal Flood Plain Savanna Grassland Riverine Flood Plain

Satellite Monitoring and Mapping  systematic sampling (+20 yr data record from NOAA- AVHRR Instrument)  8km spatial resolution  10, 15-day, monthly temporal resolution  Long-term Time Series Data sets – enables Retrospective analysis of diseases and provides basis for risk mapping  Recent: SPOT Vegetation – global 1km, MODIS – 250m – 1km, LANDSAT, SPOT HRV – selective scenes 10 – 30m ?? Scarcity of surface climate observations (both temporal + spatial) NDVI == can be used as the cumulative response indicator of climatic parameters: precip, temp and their variability over time especially in arid and semi-arid areas == memory of climate

Emergence and population expansion of a number of disease vectors (mosquitoes, mice, locust) often tends to follow the trajectory of the green flush of vegetation in semi-arid lands NDVI data can therefore be used as a multi-purpose indicator of conditions associated with vector-borne disease outbreaks – in support of disease surveillance activities Vector Dynamics and Ecology

Reconstruction of RVF Outbreak History , Localized outbreak at Sukari Ranch - Ruiru, Ngong, Nairobi Forest (isolations in mosquito populations) 1986/87 Local flooding, local disease – no epizootic 1989 – Focal epizootic around Naivasha (on wealthy farms), some human cases documented , limited, surveillance diminished, not known 1997/98 Massive epizootic in livestock and epidemic in human populations, regional event Recent associations with global scale interannual climate variability signals -- El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Operational Application Surveillance Regions: Based on Savanna Mask AP

Convergence of Pacific El Nino event and WIO Warming Wide spread, persistent and rainfall in semi arid lands Flooded dambos – hatching of infected mosquito eggs, supports several generations of mosquito populations Vegetation green-up – micro-ecological habitats conducive to mosquito survival and propagation First human cases identified late December 1997, declared Epizootic late January 1998 Impact on Livestock Trade: Ban on livestock imports from GHA – loss of income ~ $ 100 million in 1998 Reported losses of ~70% sheep and goats and 20%- 30% ~ cattle and camels estimated 89,000 humans in this region could have been infected (North Eastern Kenya and central Somalia) Operational Application: Outbreak

Operational Application Persistence mapping of “above” normal vegetation conditions

Situation: September Climate - Temporal evolution of WIO SSTs similar to / so far - Warming in WIO region ~ 0.5 o C - Most of the rain has been over the Ocean in September 2006 (see OLR) - Increase in the size of warm pool of WIO will lead to more land falling rainfall in East Africa

- Most of the rain has been over the Ocean in September 2006, except for coastal parts of Kenya and Eastern Somalia - Vegetation green-up – central and northern Somalia (~ +40% above normal), coastal Kenya - No RVF risk for East Africa for the period July – September 2006 Situation: September Rainfall, NDVI

Situation: October Climate

Situation: October Rainfall

Situation: October Vegetation

Situation: November Climate

Situation: November Rainfall

Current Situation: November Vegetation

Daily Rainfall at RVF Monitoring Sites Current rainfall at selected RVF monitoring sites almost same as 1997/98, continued rainfall will maintain flood waters and elevate risk of RVF activity and other vector-borne diseases.

Forecast Products - IRI SST Forecast for NDJ(06/07) ~ WIO region ~ 0.5 o C, this is close to 1997/98 SST anomaly correlated with widespread rainfall in East Africa - Rainfall forecast DJF 40-60% probability of above normal rainfall during DJF(06/07).

Summary It's time to watch: December 2006 – January 2007 – Current Forecast for November January 2007 – continued rainfall  risk is growing. Prolonged drought during the last several years - current livestock populations are already weak and highly susceptible to infection WHO & FAO, MOA, MOH to provide advisory and guidance on prevention: vaccination of livestock and pretreatment of mosquito habitats adjacent to pastoral settlements, livestock herds grazing areas with highly effective sustained release insecticides that can be released during current flooding.

Contributors Department of Defense, Global Emerging Infections Surveillance & Response System (DoD-GEIS), Division of Preventive Medicine, Walther Reed Army Institute of Research, Washington, DC World Health Organization – Pandemic Alert and Response Department, Geneva Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), Rome. Collaborators Kenneth J. Linthicum, Center for Medical, Agricultural & Veterinary Entomology, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Gainesville, Florida. Assaf, Jennifer Small & Compton J. Tucker, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Code 614.4, GIMMS Group, Greenbelt, Maryland. Jean-Paul Chretien - Department of Defense, Global emerging Infections System, Division of Preventive Medicine, Walther Reed Army Institute of Research, Washington, DC. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), Columbia University, New York NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Washington D.C.