1 OPTIMA INCO-MPC Third Management Board Meeting, May 18/ Gumpoldskirchen DDr. Kurt Fedra Environmental Software & Services GmbH A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen Austria DDr. Kurt Fedra Environmental Software & Services GmbH A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen Austria

2 Baseline targets: WRM performance targets: –Complete and reasonable scenario –Total outflow +/- 25% observations –Daily flow at least for ONE station close to end node */ 2 –Basic economic assessment (basis for optimization and comparison ) STREAM performance targets: –DO/BOD within reasonable ranges – any WQ observation data ? –WQ related economics under development WRM performance targets: –Complete and reasonable scenario –Total outflow +/- 25% observations –Daily flow at least for ONE station close to end node */ 2 –Basic economic assessment (basis for optimization and comparison ) STREAM performance targets: –DO/BOD within reasonable ranges – any WQ observation data ? –WQ related economics under development

3 Case studies: how to proceed By PM 18 (December 2005): Baselines ready for each case Basic economic assessment Basic water technologies ready to link, on-line data base Optimization framework agreed: –Criteria, objectives, constraints By PM 18 (December 2005): Baselines ready for each case Basic economic assessment Basic water technologies ready to link, on-line data base Optimization framework agreed: –Criteria, objectives, constraints

4 Work Plan (simple version) WP 07 Cyprus WP 08 Turkey WP 09 Lebanon+ - - WP 10 Jordan WP 11Palestine/Israel+ - - WP 12 Tunisia+ - - WP 13 Morocco+ - - WP 07 Cyprus WP 08 Turkey WP 09 Lebanon+ - - WP 10 Jordan WP 11Palestine/Israel+ - - WP 12 Tunisia+ - - WP 13 Morocco+ - -

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16 Case studies: how to proceed Optimization framework: Basic economics – TR, CY, ? Objectives, constraints: Instruments, water technologies: New questionnaires ? INSTRUMENTS, CONSTRAINTS Optimization framework: Basic economics – TR, CY, ? Objectives, constraints: Instruments, water technologies: New questionnaires ? INSTRUMENTS, CONSTRAINTS

17 Model use targets: WRM performance targets: Complete and reasonable scenarios includes groundwater links, realistic reservoir data Provide observation data for CONTROL NODES, add control nodes for all monitoring stations -> compliance, flood damages Basic economic assessment WRM performance targets: Complete and reasonable scenarios includes groundwater links, realistic reservoir data Provide observation data for CONTROL NODES, add control nodes for all monitoring stations -> compliance, flood damages Basic economic assessment

18 ECONOMICS:ECONOMICS: Direct Costs: Capital and OMR for start nodes, reservoirs, diversions. Direct Benefits: demands satisfied for demand nodes Direct Costs: Capital and OMR for start nodes, reservoirs, diversions. Direct Benefits: demands satisfied for demand nodes

19 ECONOMICS:ECONOMICS: Indirect Costs: shortfall at demand nodes penalties at control nodes flood damages Indirect benefits: compliance at control nodes Indirect Costs: shortfall at demand nodes penalties at control nodes flood damages Indirect benefits: compliance at control nodes

20 ECONOMICS:ECONOMICS: Under development for QUALITY : Cost of treatment (capital, OMR) Cost of waste water reduction (at demand nodes, capital and OMR) Penalties for standard violations (control) Use benefits for clean water (demand) Compliance benefits (control nodes) Use benefits (reaches, e.g., recreational) Under development for QUALITY : Cost of treatment (capital, OMR) Cost of waste water reduction (at demand nodes, capital and OMR) Penalties for standard violations (control) Use benefits for clean water (demand) Compliance benefits (control nodes) Use benefits (reaches, e.g., recreational)

21 OPTIMISATION:OPTIMISATION: CONSTRAINTS: Global constraints Node specific constraints Sectoral (not implemented) directly derived from model results: CONSTRAINTS: Global constraints Node specific constraints Sectoral (not implemented) directly derived from model results:

22 CONSTRAINTS:CONSTRAINTS: CONCEPTVALUE Overall Supply / Demand ratio > Reliability of supply %> Unallocated water m 3 /s< Shortfall m 3 /s< Content change/decrease % < CONCEPTVALUE Overall Supply / Demand ratio > Reliability of supply %> Unallocated water m 3 /s< Shortfall m 3 /s< Content change/decrease % <

23 CONSTRAINTS:CONSTRAINTS: Total Cost (combined) Total Benefit (combined) Total Cost (direct) Total Benefit (direct) Cost/Benefit ratio (comb.) Benefit/Cost ratio (comb.) Cost/Benefit ratio (direct) Benefit/Cost ratio (direct) Water Cost (combined) Economic Efficiency (comb.) Water Cost (direct) Economic Efficiency (direct) Net Benefit (combined) Net Benefit (direct) And any number of combinations, ratios, node specific, sectoral values, etc. Total Cost (combined) Total Benefit (combined) Total Cost (direct) Total Benefit (direct) Cost/Benefit ratio (comb.) Benefit/Cost ratio (comb.) Cost/Benefit ratio (direct) Benefit/Cost ratio (direct) Water Cost (combined) Economic Efficiency (comb.) Water Cost (direct) Economic Efficiency (direct) Net Benefit (combined) Net Benefit (direct) And any number of combinations, ratios, node specific, sectoral values, etc.

24 OPTIMISATION:OPTIMISATION: 1.Technologies are applied to NODES. 2.Each technology affects some model parameters (demand, efficiency/losses) for the different node types at a cost. 3.Benefits accrue from water supplied. 4.Optimization approach: Satisficing First round: Model selects the combinations of technologies that meets all constraints 1.Technologies are applied to NODES. 2.Each technology affects some model parameters (demand, efficiency/losses) for the different node types at a cost. 3.Benefits accrue from water supplied. 4.Optimization approach: Satisficing First round: Model selects the combinations of technologies that meets all constraints

25 TECHNOLOGIES:TECHNOLOGIES: Are NOT restricted to technology in a narrow sense, can include policies and institutional change that do affect supply, allocation, demand, efficiency, quality FOR example: –Pricing/subsidies affects demand –Market (privatization) affects allocation –Enforcement (regulatory change) affects quality and efficiency Are NOT restricted to technology in a narrow sense, can include policies and institutional change that do affect supply, allocation, demand, efficiency, quality FOR example: –Pricing/subsidies affects demand –Market (privatization) affects allocation –Enforcement (regulatory change) affects quality and efficiency

26 Water Technologies Name, META DATA Description (unstructured, hypertext HTML, types) Application domain allocation, supply, structures, quality Investment (annualized): unit cost, reference unit for scaling Operation (annual): OMR unit cost, reference unit for scaling Effects multiplier for: Demand, consumptive use, distributions losses /MANUALS/WATERWARE/ watertechnologies.html Name, META DATA Description (unstructured, hypertext HTML, types) Application domain allocation, supply, structures, quality Investment (annualized): unit cost, reference unit for scaling Operation (annual): OMR unit cost, reference unit for scaling Effects multiplier for: Demand, consumptive use, distributions losses /MANUALS/WATERWARE/ watertechnologies.html