Trends in Industry and Occupational Data Workforce Development Council Nov 2012 Mathew Barewicz Vermont Department of Labor Economic & Labor Market Information Chief Labor Market Information online at VTLMI.info

Who/What is ‘LMI’? The Economic & Labor Market Information Division ~ housed in the Vermont Department of Labor ~ affectionately referred to as LMI ~ state partner to the federal government = 100% federally funded Purpose: - to produce, explain and disseminate economic data for the benefit of the State of Vermont, educational institutes, employers, students, job-seekers, researchers, etc… Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

LMI Data Series & the Valued Input from Employers Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages – Required Current Employment Statistics – monthly panel survey Occupation Employment Study – 3 year managed panel survey of employers; Required Other Studies - Fringe Benefits, Vacancy, Skills Assessment, Industry Focus, etc… OPTIONAL Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Presentation Outline PART I ~ Status of the Vermont Economy –Where we are at in the recovery PART II ~ Occupational Projections –National Industry Data & Trends –Vermont Occupational Projections by Education

PART I Status of the Vermont Economy –Where we are at in the recovery

National Recession Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Last 3 Vermont Recessions Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Job Growth During the ‘Recovery’ Since January Vermont doesn’t run as ‘hot’ during up-swings -Private sector leading the recovery Labor Market Information vtlmi.info *Total Gov’t includes public education

Job Growth During the ‘Recovery’ Since January 2011 VT showing strong growth in two sectors: -Professional, Scientific & Technical --- still room to grow vs. national concentration of total private (6% in VT vs. 7% in US) -Private Education ~ riding a winning horse; to what end? Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Professional, Scientific, & Technical SERVICES in VT -Approximately 3,000 establishments in VT classified in NAICS 541 -over 13,500 employment opportunities -Average wage across the sector of nearly $65k Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Professional, Scientific, & Technical SERVICES in VT Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

More on NAICS 541 Specialized Design includes: - Interior, Industrial, and Graphic Design Services Management, Scientific & Technical Consulting includes: - Admin, General Management, HR, Marketing, Logistics, Environmental Consulting Services Scientific Research & Development includes: - Biotechnology, Engineering, Life Science, Social Science & Humanities R&D services Advertising & Public Relations also includes: - Media Buying and Advertising Material Distribution Other includes: - Marketing Research, Public Opinion Polling, Photographic, Veterinary Services Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Part I: Conclusions -The economic recovery = slow and uneven -Potential Risks: US ‘fiscal cliff’, international financial crises, threats of military conflicts, etc. -Vermont is faring better than the nation -Professional, Scientific & Technical Services work can be done from anywhere in the world -Requires talented workforce and adequate technology/infrastructure Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

PART II Occupational Projections –National Industry Data & Trends –Vermont Occupational Projections by Education

Education and training and projections For both career exploration and policy decisions, users want to know:  What is the demand for workers with a college degree (or some other level of education)?  What training or experience is needed in different careers, in addition to formal education? 16

New education and training classification 17 Three categories of information for each occupation:  Typical education needed for entry  Work experience in a related occupation  Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation ■ The categories make up a typical path to entry and competency

Educational attainment by occupation 18 Occupation Percent distribution of workers 25 years and older by educational attainment, by detailed occupation, 2009 Less than high school diploma High school diploma or equivalent Some college, no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Master's degree Doctoral or professional degree Architectural and engineering managers Lawyers Paralegals and legal Assistants Career/technical education teachers, middle school Waiters and waitresses Speech language pathologists Electricians Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, year file.

Education and training classification Occupation BLS education and training assignments Typical entry-level education Work experience in a related occupation Typical OJT needed to attain competency Architectural and engineering managers Bachelor’s degree More than 5 yearsNone Lawyers Doctoral or professional degreeNone Paralegals and legal assistants Associate's degreeNone Career/technical education teachers, middle school Bachelor’s degree1-5 years Internship /residency Waiters and waitresses Less than high school diplomaNone Short-term OJT Speech language pathologists Master’s degreeNone Electricians High school diplomaNone Apprentice- ship 19

National: % change in employment by typical entry-level education category 20 Percent change, projected Average, all occupations = 14.3%

National: % change in employment by typical on-the-job training category 21 Percent change, projected Average, all occupations = 14.3%

National: % growth in employment for selected paths 22 Percent change, projected Education, work experience, OJT

National: % Change in Employment by Industry: Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Service providing Goods producing Total nonagricultural wage and salary growth= -1.2% 2006 Data: BLS Current Employment Statistics

National Employment by Industry: Thousands of wage and salary jobs Service providing Goods producing

National % Change in Employment by Industry: Projected Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Service providing Goods producing Total nonagricultural wage and salary growth= 1.4%

National Employment Change by Industry 26 Thousands of jobs, projected

National Employment Change by Industry 27 Thousands of jobs, projected

Nat’l Construction Wage & Salary Employment 28 Millions of jobs

Nat’l Manufacturing Wage & Salary Employment 29 Millions of jobs

Vermont’s Occupational Projections Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Vermont’s Occupational Projections Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Vermont’s Occupational Projections Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Vermont’s Occupational Projections Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Part II: National Conclusions Industries Leading the Way: - Health Care - Personal Care & Social Assistance - Professional & Business Services - Construction - not regaining all it has lost By education category – fastest growth found in Master’s degree (21.7%) By training category – fastest growth found in apprenticeship is the typical on the job training (22.5%) Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Part II: Nat’l Conclusions (cont.) -In 4 out of 5 occupations, openings due to replacement needs exceed the number due to growth. Replacement needs are expected in every occupation, even in those that are declining. -Of the 30 detailed occupations projected to have the fastest employment growth, 17 typically need some type of postsecondary education for entry into the occupation. -More than two-thirds of all job openings are expected to be in occupations that typically do not need postsecondary education for entry Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Part II: Conclusions (cont.) National trends – low population growth – decreasing labor force participation rates - “Baby-boomers” now entirely in the “55+” age cohort; increasing group’s share of labor force from ~20% to ~25% in 2020 Vermont – no population growth – decreasing labor force participation rates (still higher than national average) Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Presentation Summary -There are lots of opportunities in the Vermont economy for workers of all educational backgrounds -However, more skills leads to more wages -VTLMI.info has a wealth of free information -More information leads to better decisions Labor Market Information vtlmi.info

Questions? Thank you! Contact Information: Mathew J. Barewicz Vermont Department of Labor 5 Green Mountain Dr. Montpelier, VT Phone- (802) Website: