COSMIC Overview and Status Bill Kuo COSMIC Program Director

COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate) 6 microsatellites launched in April 2006 Three instruments: GPS receiver, TIP, Tri-band beacon All six spacecraft are operating Produced GPS RO soundings: -1.9M neutral atmospheric profiles -2.0M ionospheric profiles -1,500~ 2,300 soundings per day 1111 registered users from 52 countries 90% of the soundings delivered within 3h A Joint Taiwan-U.S. Mission FORMOSAT-3 in Taiwan

1.9 Million Profiles in Real Time 4/21/06 – 8/4/2009

Presentation of first results from COSMIC/ FORMOSAT-3 Published in Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, March 2008 Anthes et al.

GPSRO improvement southern hemisphere RMS Height Scores (Dec 15, 2006-Feb 18, 2007) Courtesy: Sean Healy, ECMWF

COSMIC: Impact on NCEP Operation (I) AC scores (the higher the better) as a function of the forecast day for the 500 mb gph in Southern Hemisphere 40-day experiments: – expx (NO COSMIC) – cnt (operations - with COSMIC) – exp (updated RO assimilation code - with COSMIC) Many more observations Reduction of high and low level tropical winds error 1. COSMIC provides 8 hours of gain in model forecast skill at day 7!!!! Courtesy: Lidia Cucurull, JCSDA/UCAR

Skill score dropouts plague NCEP’s global model performance in Northern and Southern Hemispheres Dropouts are defined by 5-day anomaly correlation (AC) scores < 0.70 For example, the 00Z Feb case, using GPSRO + AMSUB + MHS data alleviated a dropout in the southern hemisphere. SH 5-day AC scores: GFS=0.65 (NCEP’s model) GDAS=0.69 ECMWF=0.83 First guess+nodata=0.70 First guess+conven=0.68 First guess+conven+amsua=0.70 First guess+conven+airs=0.75 First guess+conven+amsub=0.77 First guess+conven+mhs=0.78 First guess+conven+gpsro=0.79 First guess+conven+mhs+amsub=0.78 First guess+conven+gpsro+mhs+amsub=0.87 COSMIC: Impact on NCEP Operation (II) 2. COSMIC alleviates ‘dropouts’ in the Southern Hemisphere Courtesy: Lidia Cucurull, JCSDA/UCAR

12 COSMIC soundings used to construct X-section along NW-SE axis through the AR The COSMIC soundings yield cross-sectional thermodynamic structures comparable in character and detail to previous aircraft-based dropsonde surveys. COSMIC-Derived Cross Section of an Atmospheric River Tropopause Polar cold front Tradewind inversion Atmospheric river Reverse thermal gradient - LLJ Neiman et al. (2008), Mon. Wea. Rev.

Forecast: Verification with SSM/I Valid at 0200 UTC 7 November 2006 on 36-km domain No GPS GPS Nonlocal GPS Local SSM/I

The difference of 24h accumulative precipitation ending at 1200 UTC 7 November 2006 as a result of assimilation of GPS RO soundings. The left panel uses the simple local observation operator, and the right panel uses the advanced nonlocal observation operator. GPS Local – No GPSGPS Nonlocal – No GPS Evaluate 24h Precipitation 4-km domain

An example of strong inversion layer on top of ABL Radiosonde data 23 January S, 5.70W RO observables modeled from the radiosonde data. The “step-like” structures in bending angle and refractivity PBL study by Seregey Sokolovskiy (COSMIC) and Don Lenschow (MMM)

Distribution of heights of strong inversion layers (BAL > 1E-2 rad) over North America Winter: - fewer strong inversion layers over continent, more over the ocean southwards - shallower ABL over continent - deeper ABL over the ocean than in Summer Summer: most sharp inversion layers (pronounced ABL top) over the ocean and plains; less over mountains

PBL height estimated by COSMIC PBL height averaged over 7 month period, Jan-July - 07

Mean ABL height cross-section along the line AB (left) and DC (right). Vertical lines indicate the error bars PBL height estimated by COSMIC California coast to HawaiiS. America - VOCALS region

Precision of COSMIC RO Data: FM3 vs FM4 Within 10 km With K precision at all vertical levels, COSMIC data are useful to inter-calibrate measurements from other satellites Dry temperature difference between 2 nearby COSMIC Satellites

abc COSMIC data to calibrate AMSU on NOAA satellites

Ionospheric Climatology from COSMIC Data Lei, J., S. Syndergaard, A. G. Burns, S. C. Solomon, W. Wang, Z. Zeng, R. G. Roble, Q. Wu, Y.-H. Kuo, J. M. Holt, S.-R. Zhang, D. L. Hysell, F. S. Rodrigues, and C. H. Lin, Comparison of COSMIC ionospheric measurements with ground-based observations and model predictions: preliminary results, J. Geophys. Res., 112, A07308, doi: /2006JA012240, 2007.

Neutral Winds derived from COSMIC Data Luan, X., and S. C. Solomon, Meridional winds derived from COSMIC radio occultation measurements in winter, J. Geophys. Res., in press, 2008.

COSMIC-II Planning RO has shown positive impacts on weather prediction, climate monitoring. An opportunity exists now to begin a robust, operational RO mission. Mitigate loss of climate observing capability on NPOESS. Major contribution to operational space weather. Taiwan and U.S. are collaborating on a COSMIC-II plan of 12-satellite constellation. The planned first launch of COSMIC-II is expected in 2014 time frame.

Two Possible Configurations for COSMIC-II: Option A: – 8 satellites placed at 72 degree inclination angle – 4 satellites placed at 24 degree inclination angle Option B: – 12 satellites placed at 72 degree inclination angle

Distribution of RO soundings in a day FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC COSMIC-IIACOSMIC-IIB GAB Different color shows availability of RO soundings at different hours of the day.

Typhoon Forecast Improvements based on observing system simulation experiments We perform two-day data assimilation, followed with three- day forecast for COSMIC, COSMIC-IIA, and COSMIC-IIB, in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) study. Compared with the Control (without RO data) COSMIC-II gives far superior results (in terms of % improvement). Intensity forecastTrack forecast COSMIC COSMIC-IIA COSMIC-IIB

U.S. Regional Network CONUS network Caribbean network NOAA NGS CORS IGS Network SUOMINET Processing UNIDATA LDM UNAVCO PBO Near Rea-time ZTD / PWV Research Forecast Global network (Daily processing)

Hurricane Dean Forecast About 20 hPa improvement