Public Opinion and Socialization U.S. Politics Public Opinion and Socialization

Overview Public Opinion: Definition Measuring Public Opinion Survey Design Scientific vs. “Unscientific” polls Variables to be measured Factors Shaping Public Opinion Importance of Public Opinion

Definition Polling and Politics Iraq War Economic Stimulus Package

Definition Public Opinion: Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population

Measuring Public Opinion Need to add and combine these individual opinions so that we can then determine what the public as a whole believes Collect data in a scientifically rigorous fashion

Survey Design Identify target population Select Random Sample Write Questions Conduct Poll Analyze Data

Survey Design Identify target population Select Random Sample Who’s opinion are you interested in measuring? Select Random Sample Write Questions Conduct Poll Analyze Data

Survey Design Identify target population Select Random Sample every person in the target population has an equal and known probability of being included in the survey Write Questions Conduct Poll Analyze Data

Survey Design Identify target population Select Random Sample Write Questions ensure that questions are fair, non-leading, and clear Conduct Poll Analyze Data

Survey Design Identify target population Select Random Sample Write Questions Conduct Poll contact those selected in the random sample Analyze Data

Survey Design Identify target population Select Random Sample Write Questions Conduct Poll Analyze Data Intepret what the numbers mean

Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls Key is in the random sample “random”: every person in the target population has an equal and known probability of being included in the survey Allows us to calculate the margin of error and the confidence interval

Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls Margin of Error: How much the sample reports differ from the total population +/- 3.5% to about +/- 6% 45% with a 4% margin of error 45% 41% 49%

Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls Confidence Interval: How sure we are in the results .01 to .05

Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls Need to be able to determine how much your sample differs from the total population, and how sure you are in the results If no random sample, no way to determine that

Variables to Measure Intensity Salience Consensus Divisiveness Change Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree

Variables to Measure Intensity Salience Consensus Divisiveness Change Don’t Know Yes No

Variables to Measure Intensity Salience Consensus Divisiveness Change Disagree Agree

Variables to Measure Intensity Salience Consensus Divisiveness Change Yes No

Variables to Measure Intensity Salience Consensus Divisiveness Change % agreeing t1 t2 t3 t4 t5

Factors Shaping Public Opinion Education Media Family Race Political Party Income Religion Current Events Gender Geography

Importance of Public Opinion Connection to Democracy Shaping Public Policy Informing political leaders Controllinig political leaders