Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural SSA: Targeting the Poor Doug Merrey FANRPAN Regional Dialogue 2 September 2008, Lilongwe, Malawi

Outline  Overview (adapted from Jerry Nelson, IFPRI) Climate change and variability—impacts on the poor Adaptation strategies Project goals  Outcome of Kickoff Workshop  Roles of FANRPAN and ASARECA  Conclusions Omamo (2003), Policy Research on African Agriculture: Trends, Gaps, and Challenges, International Service for National Agricultural Research (ISNAR) Research Report No 21

Page 3 Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change & Variability  Rich countries emit majority of GHGs  Poor countries are more vulnerable Geography (hotter, less rain, more variation) Geography (hotter, less rain, more variation) Greater dependence on agriculture and natural resources Greater dependence on agriculture and natural resources Limited infrastructure and low-input agriculture Limited infrastructure and low-input agriculture Low income, poverty and malnutrition Low income, poverty and malnutrition Inadequate complementary services, like health and education Inadequate complementary services, like health and education Weak institutions Weak institutions Thus, lower adaptive capacity (less resilience) Thus, lower adaptive capacity (less resilience)  Location matters!

Page 4 Much Adaptation Policy is Extension of Good Development Policy  Promote growth and diversification  Invest in research and development, education and health  Improve international trade system  Enhance resilience to disasters and improving disaster management  Promote risk-sharing, including social safety nets, weather insurance

Types of Adaptation  Autonomous or spontaneous adaptations  Response to observed/anticipated climate change without intervention by a public agency  Initiatives by private actors rather than governments, triggered by market or welfare changes induced by actual or anticipated climate change  Policy-driven or planned adaptation  Proactive response  Result of deliberate policy decision on the part of public agencies Page 5

Page 6 Adaptation Responses and Issues Type of response AutonomousPolicy-driven Short run Crop choice, crop area, planting datesCrop choice, crop area, planting dates Risk-pooling insuranceRisk-pooling insurance Improved forecastingImproved forecasting Policy reformPolicy reform Technology disseminationTechnology dissemination Long run Private investment (on-farm irrigation)Private investment (on-farm irrigation) Private crop researchPrivate crop research RelocationRelocation Public investment (water storage, roads, info infrastructure)Public investment (water storage, roads, info infrastructure) Public crop researchPublic crop research Issues Adaptive capacity of poorAdaptive capacity of poor Social safety netsSocial safety nets Uncertain returns to investmentUncertain returns to investment TargetingTargeting

Page 7 Effective Adaptation Policy Strategies  Must go beyond good development policy to explicitly target the impacts of climate change, particularly on the poor  Requires spatially targeted adaptation  Requires spatially targeted adaptation  Market signals  essential factor in determining the responses to a changing environment  but involves potentially expensive time lags and overlooks equity  but involves potentially expensive time lags and overlooks equity  Climate change adaptation must therefore be proactive, not merely reactive

Why does location matter?

Where do the global climate models agree (yellow/green) and disagree (blue/red) Low emissions scenario High agreement southern & eastern Africa

Change in Precipitation (mm/month) June, high emissions scenario Black – no change Yellow – decrease in mean Blue/green – increase in mean A lot of yellow! Decreasing mean rainfall

Project Goals  Assess where should adaptation policies/programs be targeted  Identify what kinds of adaptations might be cost-effective and pro-poor  Propose methods and tools for policy- makers to evaluate options Page 11

Planned Project Products  Global change scenarios Changes in climate, land use, socio-economic factors, and alternative policies Changes in climate, land use, socio-economic factors, and alternative policies  Typology of production systems Integrates biophysical and socio-economic factors Integrates biophysical and socio-economic factors  Household-level impact and response matrix  Micro-level adaptation case studies  Policy decision framework tools Page 12

FANRPAN Hosted Kick-off Workshop June 2008 Outcomes  Identified large number of related projects— agreed to cooperate and build synergies  Data base of projects, institutions, individuals working on adaptation to climate change  Commitment of partners present to collaborate IFPRI, FANRPAN, ASARECA, two German partners (PIK, ZALF), represented governments, African research institutions  Work plan agreed  Ideas contributing to project implementation

Indicative List of Suggestions  Agriculture in a wider socio-economic context Economic diversification = adaptation strategy  Target and sensitize wide spectrum of stakeholders & decision makers  Participatory pro-active approach with policy makers  Regional focus (SADC, COMESA) makes more sense than purely national approach  Capacity building and practical adaptive strategies will be more valuable than academic publications

Roles—FANRPAN & ASARECA  Facilitate access to data, linkages of international with regional scientists Networking function critical given growing number of projects and activities  Assist in design of socio-economic scenarios  Organize workshops and consultations with key decision makers Policy dialogues as results emerge  Facilitate linking regional students with capacity building opportunities See PhD opportunity at

Conclusion oProject provides opportunity to build regional linkages and capacity  Our strength is capacity to bring researchers together with regional stakeholders, decision makers  Partnership with ASARECA a valuable opportunity with future potential benefits for region oMeasures to strengthening capacity for adaptation to climate variability and change is usually good developmental policy  But as a recent Norwegian review of its Malawi projects show, there are implications: need to diversify – diversify – diversify

Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982 Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe Mozambique flood From David Grey

Thank you! Cattle drinking water in the Shinguedzi River, competition for water resources with wildlife in the Limpopo National Park (Mozamique) Credit: Gilberto Ricardo