Overview of survey, data collection and data analysis challenges Jared Wilson Marine Ornithologist
Survey Design Data Collection Data analysis Overview of issues
Information available from range of sources: Survey Design MMO (2014). Review of post-consent offshore wind farm monitoring data associated with licence conditions. Oedekoven, et al (2013). Statistical Modelling of Seabird and Cetacean data: Literature Review SNH (2011). Draft Guidance on Survey and Monitoring in Relation to Marine Renewables Deployments in Scotland. Under revision? Camphuysen, et al (2004) Towards standardised seabirds at sea census techniques in connection with environmental impact assessments for offshore wind farms in the U.K.: a comparison of ship and aerial sampling methods for marine birds, and their applicability to offshore wind farm assessments.
ESAS methods Kober, et al JNCC Report 431. Survey Design
COWRIE
Offshore wind issues relevant to ‘wets’: Survey Design Scale - appropriate to variability of metric Effort - driven by the question, variability of metric, magnitude of change of interest Effort - within development area often insufficient Monitoring- to tie responses to specific causes Transect spacing – default may not be appropriate No. surveys - unlikely to allow a change to be detected Control sites - unlikely to be appropriate Imperfect detection - often ignored Best practice - depends on species, site, metric, baseline variability, the question.
Issues apparent from ‘wet’ renewables projects Survey Design
Sufficient effort in development site? How much effort is within lease area? Let alone the likely development footprint?
Survey Design Is buffer relevant to lease area? How similar are environmental conditions across the survey area?
A B E D F C X Survey Design Post-hoc subdivision of survey area How much effort in each sub-division How does coverage probability and effort vary across sub-divisions?
Survey Design Also: VP unit of effort often unclear/ poorly defined (not snap shot so flux measurement?) Detectability decreases with distance from observer but often ignored. For VPs, distance from shore confounds increasing distance from observer but often (always?) ignored. Question being addressed and metric to be recorded often unclear. Issues apparent from ‘wet’ renewables projects
Data Collection VP survey effort poorly/ inconsistently recorded
Data Collection VP survey effort poorly/ inconsistently recorded Survey effort confounded? What is true effort?
Data Collection VP survey effort poorly/ inconsistently recorded Survey effort confounded? What is true effort?
Data Collection VP survey effort poorly/ inconsistently recorded Survey effort confounded Observers unclear on reasons for recording various aspects of observations (especially effort).
Data Analysis
Detection probability What is true distribution? Data Analysis Imperfect detection
Detection probability What is true distribution? Data Analysis Confounding effect of increasing distance from coast Imperfect detection
Data Analysis Imperfect detection Uncertainty not presented Unclear whether survey effort appropriate (no power analysis) Post-hoc subdivision of survey area/effort Lack of clarity over analyses methods used Diagnostic outputs not presented so impossible to come to view on methods used (including Distance analysis)
MSS identified need for: Data Analysis Review of available methods Guidance on most appropriate statistical analysis of bird and marine mammal data routinely collected Freely available software to allow appropriate analysis
Clear need for guidance identified Data Analysis MRSea Contract awarded to CREEM at University of St Andrews in Completed August 2013 Workshop held September 2013 Methods review, Guidance and software package freely available to download:
Summary Range of experience to inform survey design, data collection and analysis. Increasing body of guidance exists Wave & Tidal Stream Energy sites have distinct challenges Methods are evolving (and need to continue to do so)
Any Questions? Jared Wilson Marine Ornithologist