Planning Issues in Agriculture Fall 2007

Population and Urban Growth 58 Counties in California

Central Valley: 18 Counties (Shasta –Kern ) 42,000 square miles 450 miles long (ex. Boston to Washington) miles wide over 5.5 million population (2000)

San Joaquin Valley: 8 Counties 27,276 square miles 270 miles long 1- Northern San Joaquin Valley: (San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced) 2- Southern San Joaquin Valley: ( Madera, Tulare, Kings, Fresno, Kern) Sacramento Valley: (2 parts) Sacramento Metro - urban in character North Sacramento Valley Land and climate changes – growing changes, uniqueness to valleys and areas

Air quality bases (air region-basin) Inversions and air flows Sacramento Valley Air Basin San Joaquin Air Basin Airflow/pollution…where?

Watersheds: (All rivers flow downhill ?) 1-Sacramento River 2-San Joaquin River 3-Tulare/Kings Where do they all end up?

Common characteristics of the valley region Agriculture- linkage Diversity 30% employment

California is the most productive ag state ( # 1 in production) San Joaquin valley produces ½ of states total in its 8 counties 6 of 8 counties produce more than a billion dollars/ year Entire Central Valley produces 2/3 of states production

Valley Characteristics Common Themes

1 – Fast paced population growth California – 220% Valley190.8% Stanislaus251.3% Madera233.1% Merced201.7% Kern189.8% Fresno189.1% San Joaquin180.7% Kings176.8% Tulare146.6%

2 – Increasing urbanization Bay Area commuters Prison Construction Traffic Congestion

3 – Increasing diversity Cultural Economic 4 – Increasing divergence Areas becoming different Diverging from coastal areas and the rest of the state 5 – Unique Character Each county, city, and unincorporated community has a story to tell

Historical Growth in California 1950 – 1970 CA % Valley not growing as fast (only 44%) Bay area and coastal areas – incredible growth 1970 – 2000 CA. 69.8% Valley – 103.1% Highest growth in the valley – Stanislaus, Merced, Fresno, Madera (prison) 196.5%

Population Growth 1990 – 2000 CA. 13.8% Valley20.5% Madera 39.8% Kings27.6% Kern21.4% Stanislaus20.6% Highest shift from North Valley to South valley Assignment for next week…what has the population done since 2000? (hint: look up the CA Dept of Finance)

Looking Forward

Fastest growing cities 1990s Riverbank84.2% (highest birth rate) Los Banos78.2% Newman70.% Tracy69.6% Lathrop52.7% What about the 2000’s? (For next Week)

Slowest growing cities 1990s Atwater 3.7% (closing Castle Air Force Base) Sonora 6.5% (physical restriction, growth debate) Dos Palos 9.2% (poor, high minority) Lodi 9.9% (Why?) Merced 13.9% (Large population) Modesto14.6% (Large population) Stockton15.6% (Large population) What about the 2000’s? (For next Week)

Hispanic share of population growth Merced116.2% Stanislaus 79.7% San Joaquin 71.6% Mariposa 22.3% Calaveras 12.3% Tuolumne 11.9% Decline of non-Hispanic Statewide % Hispanic % Hispanic Valley % Hispanic % Hispanic

In 1990: San Jose4545Atwater4250 Modesto5368Stockton3987 Lodi4896Tracy3380 Ceres4616Merced3460 Manteca4614Los Banos1964 In 2002: San Jose5359Atwater4625 Modesto6576Stockton4825 Lodi5604Tracy6833 Ceres6366Merced4106 Manteca6250Los Banos4021 (Normally density down in large cities – growth spreading) Cycles Population Density of our Cities (people per square mile)

If population densities normally decrease in large cities, why are densities increasing in valley towns? What are our population densities today? Out of class assignment…bring next week. Where do I find this info? Population Density of our Cities

Population Density Web Investigate the Internet for other links for information as well as the list for the class. If you can’t access this site from home, you will have to use a university computer.

Historical Population in California 1950 to 1960 doubled 1950 – 2000 population explosion 12% of the population in US 1 out of every 8 people 1950 – Fresno 276,515 Orange County 216, – Orange1,421,233 Fresno 413, – Santa Clara 290, Santa Clara1,065,313

Population continued… Point: incredible coastal growth due to economic change San Jose (surpassed population of San Francisco) Became city in , , ,400 L.A. value of Agriculture Production 1950 – 4.1 million 1970 – 7 million Today – 7 million?____Inflation? (Ag Census data)

Population growth – consequence of economic change…opportunity for a better life 70’s Technology Cold war Expansion export Why the valley? 1 – low cost of living affordable housing, inland movement from coastal areas, young families 2 – higher birth rates 3 – movement from abroad (why?)

Growth effects: More retail Crowded Pollution More consumer choices Faster population growth within cities Racially and ethnically changing Diversity increased in valley Highest in Tulare, Merced, Madera, Fresno, Kings

Urbanization in valley …migration from coast Future population projections 2000 – CA. 15.3% 31.2% Valley24.1%51% double in valley (7 million) by 2040 What will that do to Agriculture in the Valley? Fresno is #1 Ag county in USA ________ NASS

Other Valley statistics. California population under 18 California27.3% Merced34.5% Stanislaus31.1% San Joaquin 31.0%___?____ Calaveras 22.8%____?____

With all this growth, will people in the valley be better off ? Poverty rates(%) Why? Lowest Santa Clara8.2 San Joaquin17 Kern20 Kings22.8 Madera22.9 Fresno24.3 Merced24.7 Highest Tulare26.6

As a function of Education Level? % HS graduateBachelors degree US CA SC SJ Kern Fresno Stan Tulare

As a function of Income ? Valley average State has changed, valley has not Middle valley – Ag has not changed Housing prices go up in the valley affordability goes down higher % of people married

Unemployment rates 2000 Nov State ____ SC ____ SJ ____ Stan ____ Kern ____ King ____ Fresno ____ Merced ____ Tulare ____ Extra Credit…fill in the blanks…site source..

It is believed that high unemployment was from agriculture, but this is not true pattern same as the state’s Stanislaus labor force same, but… we have seasonal employment back in 70s fewer jobs/more people/economy problem 2- July ’76 certain unemployment up in CA Stan lower than that of state 3- fluctuations aren’t that great – doesn’t vary

Relationship – Ag contributes but does not become the main reason for unemployment

Next…Should we be concerned about preserving Agriculture land in the Valley?