Recent Economic and Value Trends for the U.S. Lodging Industry Presented by: Stephen Rushmore, MAI, CHA President and Founder HVS International 516-248-8828.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Owns/ manages income-producing commercial real estate Payout > 90% of Income in Dividend No corporate taxes > 75% of Assets Real Estate >100 Shareholders.
Advertisements

-5% - 25%25% - 50%50% - 75%75% - 100%100% - 195% 2001 Q Q2 Five-Year Cumulative House Price Growth, Single Family.
Calendar for America Community Outreach Road-a- Head for 2015 Mr. Rob Newell Asst. Chief of Information for Community Outreach 1.
NFL Franchise Activity Push/Pull Factors NFL Franchises Akron Professionals Buffalo All-Americans Canton Bulldogs Chicago Cardinals Chicago Tigers.
WEEK 6: GLOBALIZATION AND THE CITY. READ: CHAPTER 4 (CHANGE TO MEGAPOLITAN AREAS, READ HANDOUT) WEEK 7: TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND THE CITY. READ: CHAPTER.
National Association of Steel Pipe Distributors 30 th Anniversary Pictures.
Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October.
Presented by Economic and Tax Revenue Outlook Mark Zandi Economy.com, Inc.
Current Market Conditions in the U.S. Office Real Estate Market A Midyear Update July 15, 2008.
Exploring trends in youth homicide with cluster analysis: new methodological pathways to policy tools Emily k. Asencio University of Akron Robert Nash.
Glenn R. Mueller, Ph.D. Johns Hopkins University Real Estate Institute Director, Capital Markets & International Programs & Legg Mason, Inc. Real Estate.
Current Events Vocabulary American Sign Language II.
University of Denver Dividend Capital Research
Vancouver October 19, /17/2015. TAP CVB Clients Western Zone Albuquerque* Denver Los Angeles Palm Springs* Portland Reno Sacramento Salt Lake*
Global Research and Consulting Econometric Advisors CBRE Econometric Advisors Client Conference 2012 October 2, 2012 Session 1 | U.S. Property Market Outlook.
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014 Highly regarded and widely read 35th annual outlook Based on over 1,000 interviews and surveys of industry leaders.
Presented by © 2003 Economy.com Slide 1 Economic Outlook Mark Zandi Economy.com, Inc.
Portland State University’s Center for Real Estate 0 Property & Portfolio Research, Inc. Trends, Opportunities, and Risks in Commercial Real Estate
1 Real Estate Analysis and Investor Presentation.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. PLAY WORK LIVE Metro Milwaukee 4 County Region.
Vancouver June 5, /9/2015. TAP CVB Clients Western Zone Albuquerque* Denver Hawaii* Los Angeles Palm Springs Phoenix Portland Reno Sacramento Salt.
Vancouver May 22, /9/2015. TAP CVB Clients Western Zone Albuquerque Calgary* Denver Hawaii* Los Angeles Palm Springs Phoenix Portland Sacramento.
Speed and Acceleration. Vocabulary DefinitionIllustration 3 Examples3 Non-examples VocabularyWord SpeedSpeed VelocityVelocity AccelerationAcceleration.
Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Q U.S. office clock (overall) Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Los Angeles, Miami Dallas, San.
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION CENTER ON URBAN AND METROPOLITAN POLICY Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy Audrey Singer, Visiting Fellow The Brookings Institution.
Doc.: IEEE /0489r0 Submission March 2011 Steve Shellhammer, Qualcomm Inc.Slide 1 Wideband PHY Channel Availability Date: Authors:
Global Research and Consulting Econometric Advisors CBRE Econometric Advisors Client Conference 2012 October 2, 2012 Global Research and Consulting Econometric.
Marketing Segmentation Cluster analysis U.S. Cities.
ISHC Conference Mark Lomanno President Smith Travel Research / STR Global.
Money V Success in Sport Exercise on Correlation.
Growth Solutions Strategies and Asset Classes Well-Positioned for Capital Appreciation.
1. Forward-Looking Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Additional discussion.
Current Events Vocabulary American Sign Language II.
National Air Space System Planning Dave Bushy, VP – Flight Operations JetBlue Airways.
I can add multi-digit numbers using an open number line. Graphics:
The Role of a Supplier in a Disaster or Emergency Craig Hodges March 6 th 2012.
C. Michael Kamm, CEO Cassidy Turley | Northern California Bay Area Suburban Office/R&D Market Overview.
September ,000 Homes Sold In ,000 Homes Sold in SmartNumbers Predicts Normal Market Should Be 80,000 – 85,000 Sales. Expect To.
Institute for Urban Policy and Research Analysis, Professor Tang November 19, 2013 Ryan Robinson City Demographer Planning & Development Review Department.
The most valuable natural resource in the 21st century is brains. Forbes Magazine Revision
Where We Stand 7th Edition The Strategic Assessment of the St. Louis Region IDOT Planning Conference October 16, 2015.
July ,000 Homes Sold In ,000 Homes Sold in SmartNumbers Predicts Normal Market Should Be 80,000 – 85,000 Sales. Expect To See 75,000.
 Graphs  Paths  Circuits  Euler. Traveling Salesman Problems.
Current Events Vocabulary American Sign Language II.
Staffed Location Future Satellite Location Satellite Location.
Maps of the USA. Birmingham Montgomery Anchorage Fairbanks Juneau.
0 US Cities and Physical Features Myers Social. 1 Name this city.
The US in 1900 and today Jan 19, Population million Foreign born 7.4% Black 11.5% Hispanic ? Under 1840% Over 654% Married (age 18+)(60%)
Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill /Irwin 4-1 Chapter Four The Federal Reserve System, Monetary Policy,
Vancouver June 17, /3/2017.
Big Cities Health Inventory Data Platform 2.0
An Example of Analyses of a Distance Matrix
Exploration and Settlement until 1675
Identifying Regional IP Clusters 3D Printing Case Study
Palatine Cardiss Collins Boston Manchester Mid Island South Hackensack
Trends and Forecasting of Tourism:
The Super Bowl The Super Bowl takes place from
The US in 1900 and today Jan 17, 2017.
The Lodging Conference 2017
LAS VEGAS HOUSING UPDATE – DENNIS SMITH – HOME BUILDERS RESEARCH, INC
Where the Action Is: U.S. Markets with the Highest Rate of Growth
New Orleans Hospitality Outlook
Unit 3 Lesson 5: Regional Cities
Real-Time Airport Status Arrival/Departure Delays
Southern California Hotel Performance
AutoZone Business Development - Regional Sales Alignment
Portland Economic Update Assn. of Financial Professionals
Travel Trends: What You Need to Know About NextGen Influencers and Disruptors The Lodging Conference.
Presentation transcript:

Recent Economic and Value Trends for the U.S. Lodging Industry Presented by: Stephen Rushmore, MAI, CHA President and Founder HVS International ext

$12,000 $6,000 $5,000 18% 10% 7% $81,000 $69,000 $63, Per Room Change Percentage Change Per Room Value $12,000 $1,000 $0Per Room Change 17% 1% 0%Percentage Change $80,000 $68,000 $67,000Per Room Value $15,000 $8,000 $10,000 $6,000Per Room Change 28% 19% 28% 23%Percentage Change $67,000 $52,000 $44,000 $34,000Per Room Value ($3,000) -5% $58, ($19,000) -23% $61, Hotel Value Trends - USA

Value Per Room New York $223, Las Vegas $187, Oahu $174, San Diego $133, San Francisco$132, San Antonio $122, New Orleans $120, Long Island $103, Sacramento $ 96, Boston $ 96,000 Source: HVS International 21. United States $ 58,000

1.New York($159,000) 2.San Francisco ($113,000) 3.Boston ($ 87,000) 4.San Jose ($ 82,000) 5.Chicago($ 46,000) 6.Oahu($ 41,000) 7.Oakland ($ 34,000) 8.Austin ($ 32,000) 9.Orlando ($ 32,000) 10.Dallas ($ 28,000) 1.San Jose ($62,000) 2.San Francisco ($62,000) 3.Oakland ($40,000) 4.Boston($33,000) 5.Long Island($30,000) 6.Austin ($21,000) 7.Chicago ($18,000) 8.Miami ($13,000) 9.Houston ($13,000) 10.New York ($13,000) Change in Value Per Room Source: HVS International 18. United States ($ 18,000)31. United States ($ 3,000)

37. Memphis ($5,033) 38.Anaheim ($4,619) 39.Jacksonville ($3,951) 40.Albuquerque ($2,659) 41.San Antonio ($1,942) 42.Tampa ($1,566) 43.Las Vegas ($1,390) 44.Sacramento ($1,240) 45.Salt Lake City ($ 642) 46.Houston $6,838 Change in Value Per Room 2002 Source: HVS International Orlando $ 1, Jacksonville $ 1, San Diego $ 2, Sacramento $ 2, Philadelphia $ 7, Las Vegas $ 8, Baltimore $10, Oahu $11, San Antonio $19, Salt Lake City $34,292

1.San Francisco($175,000) 2.New York ($172,000) 3.San Jose ($144,000) 4.Boston ($120,000) 5.Oakland($ 74,000) 6.Chicago ($ 64,000) 7.Austin ($ 52,000) 8.Long Island ($ 47,000) 9.Dallas ($ 39,000) 10.Miami ($ 34,000) 24. United States($ 21,000) 37.Houston($ 6,000) 38.St. Louis ($ 5,000) 39.Memphis ($ 4,000) 40.Albuquerque ($ 3,000) 41.Jacksonville($ 2,000) 42.Baltimore ($ 500) 43.Sacramento $ 1, Las Vegas $ 7, San Antonio $ 18, Salt Lake City $ 34,000 Change In Value Per Room – 2001 & 2002 Source: HVS International

Number of Markets With Decline in Value Based on 47 Markets

1.New York ($99,840) 2.Long Island ($38,888) 3.Boston ($33,261) 4.Los Angeles ($28,565) 5. Washington,DC ($24,385) 6. Las Vegas ($20,210) 7. Baltimore ($17,703) 8.San Jose ($17,338) 9.San Diego ($16,798) 10.Oahu ($16,323) 14.USA ($12,840) Comparison of Per Room Change in Two Downturn Markets Per Room Source: HVS International Per Room San Francisco ($175,425) 2.New York ($172,097) 3.San Jose ($144,206) 4.Boston ($120,361) 5. Oakland ($ 73,692) 6.Chicago ($ 64,358) 7.Austin ($ 52,454) 8.Long Island ($ 47,018) 9.Dallas ($ 39,272) 10.Miami ($ 33,952) 14.USA ($ 21,240)

37Salt Lake City $ 4, Dallas $ 4, Albuquerque $ 5, Portland $ 5, San Antonio $ 7, Minneapolis $ 7, Denver $10, New Orleans $11, Austin $15, Houston $16,244 Comparison of Per Room Change in Two Downturn Markets Per Room Source: HVS International Per Room Houston ($ 5,975) 38.St. Louis ($ 5,263) 39.Memphis ($ 3,866) 40.Albuquerque ($ 2,895) 41.Jacksonville ($ 2,285) 42.Baltimore ($ 442) 43.Sacramento $ Las Vegas $ 7, San Antonio $ 17, Salt Lake City $ 33,650

1.New York$149,000 2.Oahu $140,000 3.San Francisco $109,000 4.San Diego $ 90,000 5.Las Vegas$ 86,000 6.Washington, DC$ 69,000 7.San Antonio $ 68,000 8.Long Island $ 64,000 9.Miami $ 62, San Jose $ 58, United States$ 38, Denver$18, Oakland $15, Ft. Lauderdale $13, Charlotte$11, Cincinnati$ 8, Salt Lake City $ 6, Austin $ 4, Dallas $ 4, Cleveland $ 4, Detroit $ 3,000 Change in Value Per Room – Source: HVS International

1.Pittsburgh 226% 2.Nashville 180% 3.Chicago 179% 4.Portland 165% 5.Albuquerque158% 6.Kansas City 130% 7.Cincinnati 117% 8.Minneapolis 104% 9.Los Angeles 86% 10.Indianapolis 85% 25. United States 65% 37.Sacramento42% 38.New Orleans40% 39.Boston 37% 40.Ft. Lauderdale30% 41.Oakland25% 42.Dallas 24% 43.Cleveland 21% 44.Detroit13% 45.Salt Lake City 8% 46.Austin 7% Percent Change in Value Source: HVS International

1.Las Vegas2 2.San Antonio2 3.Sacramento2 4.Salt Lake City2 5. San Diego3 6.Baltimore3 7.Jacksonville3 8.Oahu4 9.St. Louis4 10.Memphis4 16.United States5 Number of Years for Values to Recover to 2000 Levels Source: HVS International 30.New York San Francisco7+ 32.Boston7+ 33.San Jose Austin7+ 35.Oakland7+ 36.Ft. Lauderdale7+ 37.Denver Atlanta Cleveland7+ 40.Chicago7+ 41.Dallas7+ 42.Charlotte7+ 43.Detroit Cincinnati7+

Replacement Costs vs. Value per Room Luxury Market Segment 0 50, , , , , , Luxury Replacement Cost

Replacement Costs vs. Value per Room Upscale Market Segment 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , , Upscale Replacement Cost

Replacement Costs vs. Value per Room Midprice Market Segment 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90, , Midprice Replacement Cost

Replacement Costs vs. Value per Room Economy Market Segment 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70, Economy Replacement Cost

Source: Smith Travel Research % % 8.2% 5.7% % 8.1% 6.5% %14.0% 7.7% %17.0%11.3%1.50 % Change% Change AR/CPI Year Occupancy Av Rate CPI Index % % 3.8% 2.6% % 4.8% 2.8% % 6.5% 3.0% % 5.9% 2.3% % 4.6% 1.6%2.88

Ten Largest Sales by Price per Room in 2002 Montage Resort & SpaLaguna Beach, CA260$730,000Laguna Beach Resorts Monarch HotelWashington, DC416$353,000Legacy Hotel REIT Box Tree Inn New York, NY 13$307, East 49 (LLC) Eden RocMiami Beach, FL347$277,000Blackacre Capital Hotel Wales New York, NY 87$276,000DLJ Capital RECP II Hyatt Regency Lahaina, HI 837$275,000Blackstone Group The Orchid at Mauna LaniKahola Coast, HI 539$260,000Fairmont Hotels&Resorts La Costa Resort & Spa Carlsbad, CA479$251,000KSL Recreation Corp. British Airways HotelNew York, NY 124$250,000Affiliate Hotel Properties Holiday Inn on the Hill Washington, DC 343$233,000LaSalle Hotel Properties Source: HVS International # of Price Individual Hotel Location Rooms per Room Buyer

Rushmore’s Observations It should not get any worse than this. When occupancy starts to recover look for- Transaction volume will rise rapidly Now is the time to position yourself for a strong recovery Economy should recover War is wrapping up Supply growth is slowing Escalating profits Increased property level spending Particularly FF&E Rapid growth in room rate Transactions equate to renovations