Visioning Alternatives in the Sacramento Region Lake Arrowhead Conference October 14, 2007 Mike McKeever SACOG Executive Director

Sacramento Area Council of Governments 6 counties 22 cities 2.2 million people

How to Best Manage Growth?

Data from Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy An Aging Population

Housing Preferences – 55 and over moving in 1 to 5 years (Robert Charles Lessor survey, 2003) 34% want attached product 32% want detached small lot single family 32% want detached large lot single family

PRODUCT TYPE% ALL NEW UNITS TOTAL NEW UNITS Attached Products28%231,280 Small Lot Single Family33%272,580 Large Lot Single Family36%297,360 Other3%24,780 New Home Product Mix – Growth through 2050

Adjustments for Economic Realities? Today 38% rent In survey, 25% say their next move will be “rental” Average expected home purchase price is $214,000 How much should we: –Plan products they can afford to buy?.. vs. –Assume the will continue to have to rent

Base Case Urban Footprint — 2050 Total 1,058 Sq. Mi.

Preferred Scenario Urban Footprint — 2050 Total 701 Sq. Mi.

Urban Footprint — 2035 Total 324 Sq. Mi.

Regional Poll, 2004 (Wirthlin Worldwide): Growth Dominates List of Issues What would you say is the most important issue facing the Sacramento region at this time? (results among total sample)

Overall, Current Feeling About Growth Is Negative Based on what you know, would you say this growth will be generally a good thing or a bad thing for quality of life in this area?

Growth Principles Tested Preserve open space Transportation choices Use existing assets Jobs closer to where people live Offer housing choices Distinctive, quality design Manage real growth boundaries Encourage compact development Mixed land uses Positive or negative impact on quality of life? Positive or negative impact on your retirement years?

All Principles Seen As Having Positive Impact Positive Retirement Negative Quality of Life Negative Retirement Negative Quality of Life Negative Retirement Positive Quality of Life Positive Retirement Positive Quality of Life

Attitudes Change if Principles Followed 37-point jump in “good thing”