1 AB 32 Scoping Plan Update California Counties A State of Progress Jeff Weir Air Resources Board December 3, 2008 Sacramento, CA

70-80% loss in Sierra snowpack inches of sea level rise times as many heat wave days Medium-High Emissions (5.5-8°F) 90% loss in Sierra snowpack inches of sea level rise 3-4 times as many heat wave days Business as Usual Emissions (8-10.5°F) °F Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), % loss in Sierra snowpack 6-14 inches of sea level rise times as many heat wave days Lower Emissions (Governor’s 2050 target) (3-5.5°F) Projected Global Warming Impact on California

3 Scoping Plan Status Proposed Scoping Plan released in October Soliciting stakeholder comments for 2 years to help shape Scoping Plan Board hearings in November and December Must adopt Scoping Plan by January 1, 2009

4 Magnitude of the Challenge 1990 Emission Baseline ~169 MMT CO 2 e Reduction 80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO 2 e

5 Proposed Scoping Plan Key elements: –State Government –Transportation –Energy –Industrial sources –High “global warming potential” GHG measures –Recycling/waste, forests, water, agriculture –Recycling and waste reduction –Agriculture and forests –Water efficiency –Local Government Actions –Regional Transportation-Related GHG Targets

6 AB 32 Timeline GHG reduction measures operative GHG reduction measures adopted Publish list of early actions Publish scoping plan Mandatory reporting & 1990 Baseline Adopt enforceable early action regulations Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels Identification/ implementation of further emission reduction strategies

7 Scoping Plan: Local Government Actions and Regional Targets Local Government Actions –Will provide significant emission reductions –Impacts many different sectors of emissions –Not quantified at this time Regional Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Targets –Reducing GHG from vehicle use –Legislative direction from SB 375

8 Local Government Actions Community energy Community waste and recycling Community water and wastewater systems Community transportation Community design

9 All Emissions are “Local” Meeting AB 32 goals means emissions in every community being reduced an average of 15% from today’s levels by Broad partnership needed to reach goal –State, regional, local, and individual effort

10 Working Together to Reduce GHG Emissions StateRegional/LocalIndividual Transportation  Vehicle technology regulations  Low-carbon fuel standard  Set regional targets  Blueprint planning efforts  Local land use and transportation decisions  Clean fleets  Reducing 1 vehicle round trip per week would reduce trip- making by 5% Energy  Building & appliance standards  33% renewables portfolio  Million solar roofs program  Influence carbon content of municipal utility operation  Local building energy savings  Purchasing and conservation decisions Waste  Landfill methane control  Waste Management Board recycling efforts  Collection system adjustments  Waste reduction programs  Reducing, reusing, recycling Water  Develop statewide plan to reduce per capita water use 20%  Reduce municipal operation use  Community-wide conservation programs  Save water in the home and in the yard

11 Local Climate Action Plans –Keep track of emissions –Take actions to reduce emissions Develop tools and support system: –Local Government Protocol Draft released in May 2008 ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability CA Climate Action Registry –Community-Wide Protocol In development stage

12 Support: California Climate Action Network

13 Transportation GHG Emissions 2020 Electric Power 23% Others 15% Transportation 36% Agriculture & Forestry 5% Industrial 18% Other Transportation 3% *Preliminary ARB GHG Projections for 2020; Other Transportation: trains, planes, ships

14 On-Road Transportation Sources 2020 Passenger Vehicles ~ 160 MMTCO2E Heavy-Duty Vehicles ~ 50 MMTCO2E *Preliminary ARB GHG Projections for 2020

15 Transportation GHG GHG Mile GHG Mile,, GHG Gallon GHG Gallon VMT Vehicle Technology Vehicle Technology Fuels Vehicle Use Vehicle Use AB 1493 Regulation AB 1493 Regulation Low-Carbon Fuel Standard Low-Carbon Fuel Standard Transp. & Land Use Strategies Transp. & Land Use Strategies Transp.GHGTransp.GHG = =,,

16 SB 375 Landmark Legislation “In order to reach California’s greenhouse gas goals we must rethink how we design our communities” (From Governor’s Office Fact Sheet on SB 375)

17 Bill Basics Coordinates California transportation, land use, housing and greenhouse gas planning Requires ARB to establish regional passenger vehicle greenhouse gas reduction targets for 2020 and 2035 Requires regional planning efforts to identify ways to meet the targets Gives builders incentives to provide sustainable developments that help plans meet the targets

18 The Approach Provides incentives, not penalties Requires collaboration Encourages information sharing Gives regions opportunities to compare low-carbon planning alternatives

19 ARB Role Appoints the Regional Targets Advisory Committee Sets draft and final regional greenhouse gas targets for 18 Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) Exchanges data and information with MPOs and air districts Reviews regional plans to confirm that they meet targets

20 Statutory Timelines Jan 31, 2009ARB appoints Regional Targets Advisory Committee (RTAC) Sept 30, 2009RTAC recommendations due to ARB June 30, 2010ARB deadline to issue draft regional GHG emission reduction targets for light duty vehicles Sept 30, 2010ARB deadline to adopt final targets for 18 regions in State Spring 2011Deadlines begin for regional transportation plan updates that address SB 375 requirements Fall 2012Statutory deadlines begin for updated local General Plan housing elements

21 Long-Range Benefits Source: Median VMT impact values from over 20 modeling studies reviewed by UC Berkeley’s Transportation Sustainability Research Center

22 Making It Real Reducing 1 driving round trip per week would reduce the average person’s trip making by 5%. Decreasing the average trip length by one-half mile would reduce VMT by about 5%.

23 Impacts of Growing Smarter ParameterBase Case 2050Adopted Plan 2050Difference VMT per household per day fewer miles per household per day, a 25% reduction People Living in Areas with Good Mix of Jobs and Housing 26%53% 27% increase Growth Near Transit5% New Jobs 2% New Housing 41% New Jobs 38% New Housing 36% more new jobs and homes near transit Additional Urbanized Land 666 square miles304 square miles362 fewer square miles urbanized Daily Vehicle Minutes of Travel (per household/day) 81 minutes67 minutes 14 fewer minutes per day Per Capita CO2 and PM Emissions from vehicles Set at 100%85% of Base Case 15% less than the Base Case per capita Sacramento Region Source: SACOG, Regional Blueprint Program, 2005

24 For More Information ARB Climate Change Web Site (To stay informed - sign up for list serve) Local Government Protocol al_lgo_protocol_ pdf Jeff Weir, ,