University of California Santa Barbara Roger Nizbet Ben Martin Laure Pecquerie California Department of Water Resources Eli Ateljevich Kijin Nam Romberg Tiburon Center for Environmental Studies Dick Dugdale NOAA Brian Wells Steve Lindley Andrew Pike Lynn Dewitt Mark Henderson NASA Ames Rama Nemani Forrest Melton From rivers to the ocean: Using habitat models to understand and predict variations in central California salmon Remote Sensing Solutions Yi Chao MBARI Francisco Chavez Monique Messié University of Maine Fei Chai Shivanesh Rao Eric Danner NOAA Fisheries

Credit: NOAA NMFS

1.How to assess the quantity and quality of habitat? Water velocity Water temperature Food density 2. How to model these values over this large and complex landscape?

Input Food Temperature Velocity Output Growth Fecundity Migration costs Embryonic dev. Age at maturity Maturation Reproduction Growth Maintenance Feeding Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Models

SELFE San Francisco Estuary CoSiNEROMS Coastal Ocean CoSiNERAFT AQUATO X Sacramento River

San Francisco Estuary Coastal Ocean CoSiNE RAFT AQUATO X Sacramento River Coupled Physical-Biological Models ROMS SELFE

CoSiNE RAFT AQUATO X Coupled Physical-Biological Models ROMS COAMPS ROMS SELFE San Francisco Estuary Coastal Ocean Sacramento River

CoSiNE RAFT AQUATO X Coupled Physical-Biological Models COAMPS Salmon DEB Model Eggs / Juveniles / Adults Growth Fecundity Migration costs Embryonic dev. Age at maturity Food Temperature Velocity Food Temperature Velocity ROMS SELFE ROMS San Francisco Estuary Coastal Ocean Sacramento River

Upstream Boundary Temperature Flow Reservoir operations Climate models Watershed models Reservoir models

River Habitat Temperature Flow Aquatic Insect and Zooplankton Biomass RAFT Physical Model AQUATOX Ecosystem Model Temperature Flow Salmon DEB Model eggs, alevin, fry, smolts, adults Temperature Flow Temperature Velocity

Estuary Habitat Zooplankton Biomass SELFE Physical Model CoSiNE Ecosystem Model Salmon DEB Model tidal fry, smolts, adults Temperature Flow Temperature salinity sea level currents nutrients carbon oxygen Temperature salinity sea level currents nutrients carbon oxygen Temperature Velocity Zooplankton Nutrients

Ocean Habitat Zooplankton Biomass ROMS Physical Model CoSiNE Ecosystem Model Salmon DEB Model smolts, subadults Temperature Velocity Velocities mixing temperature light Temperature salinity sea level currents nutrients carbon oxygen Zooplankton Biomass

DEB Model: River Habitat Energy spent on migration cannot be spent elsewhere = smaller eggs Velocity Temperature Size

Physical Model: River Habitat Temperature Flow velocity (m/s) Distance from dam Time

Optimal migration rate (km/day) Flow velocity (m/s) Endurance limited Not-endurance limited Flow velocity (m/s) Fraction of time recovering DEB Model: River Habitat Hydrodynamics-based power-law equation Critical power model

DEB Model: River Habitat Adult salmon migrations: velocity and temperature

DEB Model: River Habitat

without endurance limit with endurance limit

Physical Model: Estuary Habitat Temperature

Linking California coastal ocean model with San Francisco Bay/Estuary model Golden Gate ROMS 3-km Unstructured grid SELFE 1-km………………..10-m Physical Model: Estuary Habitat

Temperature

NH 4 concentration (m.mol/m 3 )Chlorophyll (m.mol/m 3 ) Successfully integrated CoSiNE with SELFE Need to revise the NO 3 uptake curve in CoSiNE Biological Model: Estuary Habitat

Modeled zooplankton Observed krill Biological Model: Ocean Habitat environmental variability