Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SMART Sustainable Management of Scarce Resources in the Coastal Zone 12–15 September 2004 Hammamet, TUNISIA WP05 – Turkish Case Study Compilation of the Socio-Economic Data and Scenario Prediction

Socio-economic data compilation and assessment has been done according to the directives and clues stated by FEEM concerning the indicators and scenario prediction. Impacts on the system Reactions of that system and, Their interactions are interpreted as a transaction chain Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center

WATER DEMAND WATER SUPPLY By determining indicators and related parameters, it is possible to evaluate the future water demand & supply assumptions and create management scenarios Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center

Economicalsocialenvironmental Economical, social and environmental dimensions are considered and emphasized that the sustainability is in the cross-section of these three dimensions. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center Three scenarios are considered: - Business as usual - Optimistic - Pessimistic For each scenario, sustainability indicators are determined and all scenarios are compared to each other.

Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center INSUFFICIENT WATER SUPPLY Immigration from rural to urban areas Population Growth Increase in Urban Population Basin-out water supply Over Exploitation of Groundwater for irrigation Increase in Industrial Ground & Surface Water Use Groundwater Pollution Low Precipitation Insufficient Financial Status for Domestic Water Supply Infrastructure Investments INCREASE IN DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND INCREASE IN IRRIGATION WATER DEMAND INCREASE IN INDUSTRIAL WATER DEMAND Change in Crop Pattern Increase in Irrigated Area Surface Water Pollution Insufficient Maintenance&Operation No new investment for Irrigation Water Conveyance Systems No new investment for better irrigation methods High irrigation water loss Increase in irrigation water pricing

There is an existing and successful birth control policy in Turkey. In scenario construction, birth control has taken into consideration for BAU and optimistic scenarios. For eastern parts of Turkey, birth control is not fully successful in rural areas, hence such a situation is also taken into account in pessimistic scenario. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center High immigration rate from rural to urban areas causes increase in urban population growth rate for pessimistic scenario; for optimistic scenario, birth and death rates are balanced in urban areas, only the immigration is considered, because there is a descending trend in rural population in last ten years.

Groundwater and surface water supplies have also been considered as in decreasing situation in pessimistic scenario due to precipitation. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center A decrease in average precipitation rate has only been considered in pessimistic scenario, regarding historical drought periods that last more than 6 years with a decrease of 40% in precipitation.

Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center There is already some basin-out water transfers in order to meet Izmir municipality’s domestic water; furthermore there are two on- going projects, which will supply industrial and domestic water for adjacent basins at the end. An increase in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are foreseen for domestic water use due to accelerated increase expected because of immigration and improving life standards.

Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center For irrigation water use, in optimistic scenario, decrease is expected regarding better irrigation methods, in pessimistic scenario; increase is foreseen due to worse management policies, crop pattern changes and insufficient public awareness. In optimistic scenario, irrigation water loss rate decreases due to better conveyance system and sufficient maintenance.

Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center No change in irrigated area is expected. There is a dam in construction which will supply industrial water, hence surface water is also expected to be utilized to meet increasing industrial water demand.

Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center

Scenarios applied to assessment of irrigation water demand in Gediz River Basin in the scope of a under- graduate thesis. Through the use of Blaney-Criddle method, monthly water demand of each type of plant has been determined. For major irrigated areas; Crop patterns Irrigation conveyance systems Irrigation methods have been evaluated regarding ongoing trends in management, operation and farmer preferences.

Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center For pessimistic scenario 1 o C temperature increase, 10% decrease in monthly rainfall and cotton-fruit-corn- grape are assumed as dominating crop pattern, For optimistic scenario, cotton-vegetable-corn-grape are assumed as dominating crop pattern; irrigation conveyance system losses are assumed as 10%. For BAU, existing trends are assumed to be prevented; existing irrigation conveyance system losses are 40%.

Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center Major irrigated areas which have long-term data ( ) High corelation between market prices and crop pattern Conveyance systems should be improved !

Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center THANK YOU !