Kentucky Horticulture Outlook Fall 2003 Tim Woods and Matt Ernst Agricultural Economics

U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Selected Fresh Produce Crops Agricultural Economics Source: July 2003 USDA/ERS Vegetables and Melons Situation and Outlook Yearbook (Table 1)

Percent selling at least 10% of their produce into given market channel Source: KY Produce Marketing Practices Surveys Kentucky Produce Marketing Channels

Co-ops generally saw strong prices Modest growth in acreage Continued AD Fund support to develop infrastructure and carry working capital Management and board challenges More demonstration programs from UK –Additional $2 million appropriated for on-farm demos, variety development, applied research KY Cooperative and Wholesale Markets

KY Vegetable Co-op Acreage Agricultural Economics Change Broccoli Cabbage Cantaloupes Sweet Corn Cucumbers Peppers Potatoes Pumpkins Squash Tomatoes Watermelons TOTALS

More interest in direct-store-delivery by major retailers –Grapes, blackberries, tomatoes, blueberries Marketing alliances to produce specialty vegetables –Specialty peppers –Specialty root crops, Asian vegetables, herbs Wholesale Beyond the Co-op

Fruits and Vegetables: Kentucky Gross Farm Sales, Co-op sales for 2003: $5-6 million 60 Farm Bureau $100,000: Another $6 million 80+ community farmers markets gross Another $4 million Auctions, niche processed products (grapes), wholesale not through co-ops, other direct sales: Another $5-10 million Major growth since 1997 Agricultural Economics Source: USDA/ERS, NASS Ag Census ??

U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Selected Fresh Produce Crops Agricultural Economics Source: July 2003 USDA/ERS Vegetables and Melons Situation and Outlook Yearbook (Table 1)

Wholesale Terminal Market Prices Large Howden Pumpkins (MI, IL) Agricultural Economics Source: USDA/AMS

Source: USDA/ERS, UK Estimates U.S. Sweet Corn Shipping Point Prices and 2003

Source: USDA/ERS, UK Estimates U.S. Tomato f.o.b. Shipping Point Prices

Source: USDA/ERS U.S. Tomato Imports

Source: USDA/ERS, UK Estimates U.S. Average Farm Prices Cabbage

Source: USDA/ERS, UK Estimates U.S. Average Farm Prices Bell Peppers

Green River Produce Cooperative –Strong marketing alliance –Market entry with big players –Outstanding quality (Castellini’s) Typical large annual price swings Net per acre per year has ranged from break-even to $2,000+ Challenges in the KY Cantaloupe Deal

Atlanta Cantaloupe Terminal Market Prices ½ & 5/9 bu Ctns 12s Agricultural Economics Source: USDA/AMS **********Typical Kentucky Season********* *****2003 Kentucky Season*****

Detroit Cantaloupe Terminal Market Prices ½ & 5/9 bu Ctns 12s Agricultural Economics Source: USDA/AMS *****2003 Kentucky Season***** **********Typical Kentucky Season*********

St. Louis Cantaloupe Terminal Market Prices ½ & 5/9 bu Ctns 12s Agricultural Economics Source: USDA/AMS *****2003 Kentucky Season***** **********Typical Kentucky Season*********

2003 Cantaloupe Shipments (10,000 lbs) Agricultural Economics Source: USDA/AMS *****2003 Kentucky Season***** **********Typical Kentucky Season*********

400 commercial berry acres— Highest since 1980s Outstanding small fruit quality, season length & yields Small fruit seasons 7-10 days behind throughout East/SE Apple yields at 5-yr high Excellent tree fruit quality Strong demand for fresh market peaches, pears, Asian pears 2003 KY Fruit Season

Sources: : US Ag Census; *2002: USDA/ERS; wineinstitute.org; CA Dept. of Food and Agriculture 2002 estimate includes 1,179,545 acres U.S. Grape Vines

Estimated KY Breakeven Price Per Ton: $ Source: “Business Planning and Economics of Midwestern Grape Production” Bruce Bordelon, Purdue University, Approximate Grape Prices Paid By IN RegionaWineries, $/ton

Value of KY Wholesale Greenhouse & Nursery Sales, Agricultural Economics Source: USDA/ERS Floriculture and Nursery Crops Situation and Outlook Yearbook, May Christmas trees not included.