Peak Oil Future Energy Scenarios Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006

World Energy Use Coal Nuclear Oil Gas Hydro Biomass Geothermal, wind solar, etc. RE Total ~400 Quadrillion Btu

US Energy Use Industrial Commercial Residential Transportation Light vehicles Med./hvy trucks Air (Water, pipeline, rail, buses) ~2/3 of oil use is transportation

US Yearly Petroleum Production US Energy Information Agency:

Finding Norways R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”

Driving Habits vs. Hybrids Scenario one: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving amount remains const. at 11,600 mi/veh/yr Scenario two: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; hybrids incr. at 25%/yr.; driving amount remains const. at 11,600 mi/veh/yr Scenario three: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving cut by 10% one time to 10,440 mi/veh/yr Scenario four: Fleet grows by 0.5%/yr; no hybrids; driving cut by 2%/yr from 11,600 mi/veh/yr But … if the decline rate is 3 – 5 %/year?

Fuel Economy by Speed Transportation Energy Data Book, 24 th Ed. Driving at 60 mph instead of 70 mph could save roughly 500,000 barrels of oil each day

Ethanol Yield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha kg corn /ha) Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×10 10 GJ/a Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×10 8 ha of land Currently we have in the US 1.2×10 8 ha of cropland total But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol from industrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1. GHG emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline. D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813 Farrell et al., Science 311, (2006)

Four Scenarios

Effects of Peak Oil – Scenario I Million boe/d

Scenario I Parameters First scenario, which could be referred to as a moderately changed business-as-usual energy future. Natural gas and oil peak in consumption in five years; the decline rate for each being 3%/year. Solar and wind energy grow at 10%/year, while nuclear power and coal as energy sources grow at 1%/year as is currently the case. Non-conventional oil and gas production increases are based on current optimistic estimates: shale oil and methane hydrates beginning commercial production in 10 years and increasing at 0.15 million boe/day/year, while tar sands oil production increases from the current level of 1 million boe/day by 0.2 million boe/day/year.

Green Energy Future – Scenario II Million boe/d

Scenario II Parameters Second scenario, which could be referred to as a green energy future. Natural gas and oil peak in consumption in five years; the decline rate for each being 3%/year, considered as a lower limit. Solar and wind energy grow at 20%/year, while nuclear power and coal as energy sources grow at 1%/year as is currently the case. Finally, non-conventional oil and gas development proceeds more slowly than in the first scenario: shale oil and methane hydrates beginning commercial production in 10 years and increasing at 0.05 million boe/day/year, while tar sands oil production increases from the current level of 1 million boe/day by the same 0.05 million boe/day/year.

Nuclear Technology known Technology known Good for environment – at least for CO 2 emissions Good for environment – at least for CO 2 emissions Electricity, not transportation Electricity, not transportation Back to Hirsch Back to Hirsch Waste disposal, etc. Waste disposal, etc. Non-renewable (~50 years at CROC?) Non-renewable (~50 years at CROC?)

Nuclear Future – Scenario III Million boe/d

Scenario III Parameters Third scenario, nuclear-supplemented fossil-fuel energy future. Natural gas and oil peak in consumption in five years; the decline rate for each being 3%/year, as in the first scenario. Solar and wind energy grow at 10%/year and coal grows at 1%/year, while nuclear power as an energy source increases at 10%/year beginning in 10 years to allow for ramp-up. Finally, the prognoses for non-conventional oil and gas are based on current optimistic estimates: shale oil and methane hydrates beginning commercial production in 10 years and increasing at 0.15 million boe/day/year, while tar sands oil production increases from the current level of 1 million boe/day by 0.2 million boe/day/year.

Life-cycle CO 2 emissions H. Hondo / Energy 30 (2005) 2042–2056

The Coal Future – Scenario IV Million boe/d

Scenario IV Parameters Fourth scenario, coal energy future. Natural gas and oil peak in consumption in five years; the decline rate for each being 8%/year, leading to a strong increase in the use of coal, at a rate of 5%/year. Solar and wind energy grow at 10%/year, while nuclear power grows at 1%/year as is currently the case. Finally, the prognoses for non-conventional oil and gas are based on current optimistic estimates: shale oil and methane hydrates beginning commercial production in 10 years and increasing at 0.15 million boe/day/year, while tar sands oil production increases from the current level of 1 million boe/day by 0.2 million boe/day/year.

Coal Production Energy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005

Coal Production