Dry Bulk Freight Outlook 2 nd Annual Conference Coal Market in India 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

Dry Bulk Freight Outlook 2 nd Annual Conference Coal Market in India 2012

D RY B ULK M ARKET A ND I NDIAN C OAL P ERSPECTIVE 2 Cape: 100k dwt and above; Pmax: 60k-99k, Smax: 35k-59k, Hsize: below 35k

3 D RY B ULK F REIGHT M ARKET T REND C ONTINUES TO BE IN A STATE OF E XTREME W EAKNESS

C OAL F REIGHT TO I NDIA H AS FOLLOWED THE BROADER TREND OF T IME C HARTER R ATES 4

T WO K EY F ACTORS IMPACTING THE FREIGHT MARKET OVER LAST 2 YEARS 1. B UNKER P RICE - H AVE HAD AN EXTREME N EGATIVE IMPACT ON R ATES SINCE

6 T WO K EY F ACTORS IMPACTING THE FREIGHT MARKET IN LAST 2 YEARS 2. F LEET S UPPLY HAS CONSISTENTLY OUTWEIGHED F LEET D EMAND

S UPPLY S IDE D YNAMICS 2012 ANOTHER RECORD YEAR 7

8 S UPPLY S IDE D YNAMICS O UTLOOK

S CRAPPING, L AYUPS AND S LOW S TEAMING CONTINUE TO KEEP FLEET SUPPLY GROWTH IN C HECK 9

S TEEL P RODUCTION R EFLECTING THE W EAK M ACRO F UNDAMENTALS G LOBALLY 10

M ACRO F UNDAMENTALS 11

C HINA P ROPERTIES – I N A R ECOVERY PHASE M ONETARY P OLICY – C OMING TO THE A ID ONCE MORE 12  PBOC reduced the benchmark interest rate for the 2 nd time within a month.  On the same day  ECB cut the interest rate by 25 bps  BoE increased their asset purchase program by 50 bln pounds.  Fed already extended its operation twist by USD 267 bln, till the end of the year.

C OAL M OVEMENT C HINA D EPRESSED – B UT S IGNS OF IMPROVEMENT 13

C OAL M OVEMENT I NDIAN I MPORTS H URT BY R UPEE D EPRECIATION – B UT THE FUNDAMENTAL DEFICIT CONTINUES 14

I RON -O RE EXPORTS – W ILL SUPPORT THE C APE MARKET IN 2 H 12 15

I NDIA I RON - ORE WOULD CREATE WEAKNESS IN P MAX /S MAX SEGMENTS 16

N ICKEL O RE L OW D EMAND FROM C HINA AND E XPORT R ESTRICTIONS IN I NDONESIA 17

G RAINS T RADE US GRAINS EXPORT WILL PROVIDE A SEASONAL PUSH TO FREIGHT – WEATHER A CONCERN 18

I N S UMMARY  Fleet growth would reduce by more than half in 2013 compared to pace.  Cargo growth would exceed supply only marginally, while the macro risk would remain at elevated levels.  Fundamental Weakness Remains but Volatility to continue.  Market would be better balanced post 2013, with an expectation of demand growth finally exceeding supply growth. But two major risk factors remain:  Europe blow out and a return to global recession would drastically reduce the prospects of demand growth.  A surge in new contracting of the new “economic ship” variety. 19

Who are We ? 20

 World leader in the processing of agricultural products and the merchandising of a diverse range of commodities  Privately held, controlled by the Robert Louis-Dreyfus trust and approximately 20% employee-owned  Part of the Louis Dreyfus Group At a glance A vital player in the global food chain 21 LD C OMMODITIES K EY F ACTS AND F IGURES

Robert Louis-Dreyfus establishes his vision of the Louis Dreyfus Group: Excellent profitability Enters new local markets: Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia Expands new product lines: fertilizers, milk… Acquisition of four sugar mills in Brazil Acquisition of the Bazhou oilseeds crushing plant in China Bazhou (China) The Group extends its agricultural activities to cotton, sugar, citrus, coffee International operations serving Europe, the Americas, Africa and Asia Begins futures trading The Louis Dreyfus Group restructured into autonomous subsidiaries Creation of LDCommodities LDCommodities is rationalized through a matrix organization: Regions/Platforms Asset-based strategy Net sales doubled compared to 2006, well above US$35 bn Dedicated region set up: Middle East and Africa Expansion in Asia with acquisitions of an edible-oil refinery in India, and a stake in an Indonesian palm-oil plantation company Investment in Brazilian sugarcane processing facilities and plantations Pursuing growth, excellent financial performance, confirming benefits of diversification and asset-based strategy Enters the apple juice concentrate market (China) Acquisition of Cotton assets Pursuing logistics investments o/w Port Lampung (Indonesia),cereal terminal (Argentina) UN Global Compact signatory s-80s 1990s Founded by Leopold Louis-Dreyfus trading grain in France and Switzerland Adds processing operations in citrus and oilseeds to origination and marketing activities Acquired sugar production in Brazil Enters metals business General Lagos (Argentina) Santa Elisa (Brazil) Kandla (India) History An ambition takes shape Net sales US$ 34 bn, Fixed Assets above US$5.5 bn Approx. 34,000 employees, offices in more than 55 countries Acquisition of rapeseed crushing plant in Wittenberg (Germany) Merger of operations with Santelisa Vale (Brazil) to create LDC-SEV A N EW G ROUP W ITH 160 Y EARS OF H ISTORY

PRESENCE IN TRADE FLOWS COMMENTS OILSEEDS #3-4 Key presence in major exporters: Brazil, Argentina #4 world crushing capacity GRAINS #2-3 Key presence in all major grains origins: US, FSU, South America, Australia RICE #1 Significant participation in the distribution flows to Africa FREIGHT One of the largest chartering entities Supporting the Group’s commodities Platforms and mitigating risk FINANCE JUICE #3 Recent entry into the Chinese Apple Juice industry COTTON #1 Expanding assets in Australia and America COFFEE #4 #1 in Robusta coffee SUGAR #2 Growing participation in the raw and refined sugar markets LDC-SEV #2 40 million metric tons crushing capacity per year METALS #4 Copper concentrates, zinc concentrates, cathodes MILK > 1% market share Sourcing in both New Zealand & Latin America FERTILIZERS Top 15 in Latin America Recent entry into West African markets through SSI acquisition PROTEINS TROPICALS OTHER What Helping feed and clothe up to 450 million people LDC SEV 23 P RODUCING AND M ERCHANDISING M AJOR A GRICULTURAL C OMMODITIES

expanding in the world’s largest export market where it all started abundant origination preparing the future rich challenges, rapid growth capturing production and consumption opportunities Where Strategically located, strategically diverse 24 W ORLDWIDE G EOGRAPHICAL S COPE

Where 25 BAHIA BLANCA, ARGENTINA Deepwater Grain Export Terminal GENERAL LAGOS, ARGENTINA Soybean Crush/Grain Export Terminal PORT CARTIER, CANADA Deepwater Transhipment Port PORTLAND, OREGON Grain Export Terminal SEATTLE, WASHINGTON Deepwater Grain Export Terminal HOUSTON, TEXAS Grain Export Terminal A Major Exporter From Every Region of the World S ELECTED P ORT F ACILITIES

ORIGINATION & PRODUCTION OILSEEDS RICE GRAINS JUICE COTTON COFFEE SUGAR FOOD METALS FEED TEXTILE FUEL INDUSTRIAL PROCESSING & REFINING STORAGE & TRANSPORT RESEARCH & MERCHANDISING PACKING & DISTRIBUTION Fixed-Asset Operator MILK FERTILIZERS LDC-SEV Intelligent Merchant How Managing risk and adding value across the supply chain 26 PROTEINS TROPICALS OTHER LDC SEV A S OLID P RESENCE AT E VERY S TEP OF THE V ALUE C HAIN

 45 million tons of cargo carried, equally balanced between LDC cargo and 3 rd party customers including major global miners, utilities, and steel producers  Total fleet operations, spanning the Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize segments, in excess of 63,000 vessel days (~172 vessels) At a glance Strength, Reputation, and Performance built over 160 years 27  A trusted partner and supplier, with an unmatched record of honoring its contractual commitments  Expansion driven by relationships with worldwide chartering organizations that engage our research, risk management, and logistics services to assist their operations LD C OMMODITIES O CEAN F REIGHT

Where Custom solutions for a global marketplace 28  Global team, with chartering offices covering all time zones  Global network of offices and logistics specialists in over 55 countries  Capable of providing a wide range of services: Short term contracts, vessel leases, and spot cargo voyages Long term contracts of affreightment (COA’s) Ocean freight price risk management Logistics services and support including ocean freight consultancy Outsourced chartering and back office solutions W ORLDWIDE G EOGRAPHICAL S COPE

Kunal Kapoor Head of Research Ocean Freight Platform Office Mobile Louis Dreyfus Commodities India Pvt. Ltd. 8 th Floor, Tower A, Building No. 5, Cyber City, DLF Phase III Gurgaon 29 F OR M ORE I NFORMATION