September 23, 2008 Khosrow Biglarbigi, INTEK Inc. Anton Dammer, U.S. Department of Energy Hitesh Mohan, INTEK Inc. Marshall Carolus, INTEK Inc. INTEK Economics of Oil Shale Development in the United States SPE
2 Economic Discussion Part I - Project Economics –Project costs –Economic price –Cash flow Part II – A new oil shale industry –Potential size –Economic hurdles/solutions –Benefits on U.S. economy $
SPE National Oil Shale Model Resource Screen Resource Economic Options Production Reserves Revenues & Costs Technology Surface U/G MIS In-Situ Economics
SPE Resource Base Analyzed Industry nominated tracts 79 Billion Barrels of resource in place Detailed geologic & petrophysical data Western Oil Shale
SPE Modified In-Situ Technologies Considered 1 2 Surface Mining / Surface Retort Underground Mining / Surface Retort True In-Situ
SPE First Generation Project Costs
SPE Canadian Oil Sands Operating Costs Source: Suncor, % Increase
SPE And the Capital Costs are Increasing Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, April 2008 Production Start Date $3.3 billion$10-11 billion 2011 Capital Costs of 100,000 bbl/day project 267% Increase
SPE Economic Price for Oil Shale Technology Generic Projects (Price: $/Bbl)
SPE Breakdown of Economic Price for Generic Surface Project $47/Bbl Cost of Capital $9 Operating Costs $18 Risk Premium $4 Transfer Payments $7 Taxes $9
SPE Cashflow of a Generic Oil Shale Project After Tax Before Tax Year Cumulative Discounted After Tax Cashflow (MM$) Room for Government Action
SPE Impact of Incentives on Generic Cashflow After Tax Before Tax Year Cumulative Discounted After Tax Cashflow (MM$) $10/Bbl Production Credit $5/Bbl Production Credit 15% investment Credit 10% Investment Credit Accelerated Depreciation
SPE Projected Production Potential (BOE) (Shale Oil in the U.S.) Base Tax Incentives RD&D Measured Accelerated
SPE Savings to U.S. Consumers
SPE Contribution to GDP
SPE New Jobs
SPE Savings on Foreign Imports
SPE Direct Local, State, And Federal Revenues Will Increase by $25 to $85 Billion by 2035
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